StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up
sandjco
456 posts
msg #136951
Ignore sandjco
7/21/2017 4:57:49 PM

SCO and GASX working! nibbled on CLVS.

sandjco
456 posts
msg #137004
Ignore sandjco
7/24/2017 10:54:34 AM

out of SCO, CLVS and GASX with minor flesh wounds!

Patience. patience....patience.

sandjco
456 posts
msg #137049
Ignore sandjco
7/27/2017 12:11:43 AM

Post mortems....

Sold too early...




Bailed correctly...



common denominator that lead to the decision? FEAR of losing money.

Hindsight:unless the position reverses EOD or the next day....don't sell right away!



sandjco
456 posts
msg #137314
Ignore sandjco
8/3/2017 11:05:51 AM

Earnings: to play or not to play....

Didn't trade the "plan" as I wasn't really sure what would happen during earnings season for the FANG stocks; the entries were there for the taking.

AAPL..reports a beat (yawn)


TSLA...what else is there to say? reports a huge loss but the future looks bright?

This was the trade I really wanted to take but was fearful about the earnings report and outlook (couldn't have been that bad with the 3 out right?) Hindsight is 20/20

FB


AMZN

I expected the losses; will continue. This would be a buying on "dips" for my non trading portfolio. Bezo is playing the long game

NFLX

Cable cutting is for real.

GOOG

Poor GOOG...

TECL


Now the good news is out there...what is next? hangover?

Still unsure about to trade or not to trade when you know earnings is about to come out....gap up or gap down.

pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #137315
Ignore pthomas215
8/3/2017 11:17:05 AM

Sanjco, the short answer is do not hold during earnings most of the time, except when you are truly comfortable with the position at the time. Ive been getting in and out of FIT the past couple days....got out at 5.10 or so before the call, as it seemed to be dropping to 5. Earnings out last night and it went from 5 to 5.30. After I saw good earnings, I re entered at 5.30 and it is now 5.80. In my opinion,you want to shift into "trade" mode around earnings, as opposed to investment mode.

Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #137316
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
8/3/2017 11:45:10 AM

Alternatively - don't trade any stock before earnings. You cannot know how it will play out, therefore it is a pure gamble rather than a planned investment with some kind of statistical edge.

pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #137317
Ignore pthomas215
8/3/2017 11:49:05 AM

Well, i was making the same point actually. It's a statistical play after earnings come out, as you then know the new support and resistance levels. Point is valid--holding around earnings is like gambling, and holding through earnings is like shoving all the chips in the center of the table and putting ""it all on red".

sandjco
456 posts
msg #137323
Ignore sandjco
modified
8/3/2017 1:38:23 PM

Thank you for the feedback!

In hindsight, my original plan was still valid in using ETFs in my trading portfolio. With the stocks I've mentioned, i was just wondering if there was a way to "enhance" Buy and Hold returns by trading in and out of core positions. Maybe it is just greed; I will leave that thought for now.

So far, 2 "learnings" hit me:
- FEAR (of losing or missing the run or being wrong) has been the driver of my decisions (hence, missing runs and entries). I have to figure out a way around this. So far, I think having a confidence in the plan (lacking back "testing" data) may help. More on that....
- One does not really know what happens next all the time every time after you take the trade. One can, however, limit loses by selling.

On the backtesting....Kevin, thank you for bringing up StrataSearch. Outside of SF, this is probably the best software out there that is free. I used to like Wealth-lab till it died. I've just downloaded it and it is currently running the "one click" % of perfect sim on a basket of securities. I started at 9:00 AM PST, I wonder how long it will take....LOL Hope Google doesn't screw up our ability to download data in the future!

KORU, GERN, LABU/XBI are on my watchlist.

Cheers!

sandjco
456 posts
msg #137375
Ignore sandjco
8/5/2017 12:30:23 AM

picked up LABU


sandjco
456 posts
msg #137465
Ignore sandjco
8/8/2017 8:27:07 PM

Hmmm...LABU was going well and then....even the rest of the stocks I'm watching kinda reversed.

Market feels weird...almost as if it is waiting for an excuse to sell off hard.

StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up

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