StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up
KSK8
359 posts
msg #145690
Ignore KSK8
modified
12/24/2018 4:29:41 AM

My first post I asked if someone could code a 95% win rate filter and not to my surprise I had a few novices reply.

So in that regards I took the liberty to do it myself.
The strategy I present holds a 95% win rate over a 14 year period. (BULL & BEAR MARKET DURABLE)
Historically the average gain is also larger than the average loss.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The strategy is 100% mechanical and is based upon shorting small cap & microcap equities as terrifying as it seems.

Rules:

1. Before the market opens run the scanner and prepare to trade whatever it gives you.
2. Be ready to short the stock AT THE OPEN
3. Reserve shares for that specific stock during premarket using the broker Centerpoint (Optional)
4. Leave the screen and go play golf
5. Return back before the market closes and COVER AT THE CLOSE


Excluding rules 3 & 4 this has historically had a statistical win rate of 94.6% over the past 14 years.
In that same 14 year span, the average gain is LARGER than the average loss.

I CHALLENGE ANYONE TO TELL ME THIS ISN'T THE HOLY GRAIL

I also invite anyone to build upon it!

Fetcher[

/* short at the open, cover at the close */

market is not OTCBB
market is not ETF

offset is 0
volume > 100000
set{liq,volume*price}
liq > 1000000
close > 0.1
close < 10
rsi(2) > 98
close is 10% below high


set{daysCloseUp, days(Close below Close 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysCloseDown, days(Close above Close 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysClosecurdir, daysCloseUp - daysCloseDown}
set{daysLOWSUp, days(Low below Low 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysLOWSDown, days(Low above Low 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysLOWScurdir, daysLOWSUp - daysLOWSDown}
set{daysHIGHSUp, days(High below High 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysHIGHSDown, days(High above High 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysHIGHScurdir, daysHIGHSUp - daysHIGHSDown}
set{daysRSIup, days(rsi(2) below rsi(2) 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysRSIdown, days(rsi(2) above rsi(2) 1 day ago,100)}
set{daysRSIcurdir, daysRSIup - daysRSIdown}
set{rsi_count, count(rsi(2) > 98,200)}

add column separator
add column shares outstanding
add column market cap
add column separator
add column daysRSIcurdir {..rsi^}
add column RSIext
add column rsi(2)
add column rsi(2) 1 day ago
add column separator
add column rsi_count
add column separator
add column daysClosecurdir {..clo^}
add column daysLOWScurdir {..lo^}
add column daysHIGHScurdir {..hi^}
add column separator

do not draw rsi(2)
do not draw liq

]



SFMc01
328 posts
msg #145691
Ignore SFMc01
12/24/2018 8:24:38 AM

What brokerage do you use to short stocks costing less than $5.00?

Mactheriverrat
2,146 posts
msg #145695
Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified
12/24/2018 12:25:45 PM

Well that's better than your first post but you get what you ask for. Time time tell but I will mess with it and tweak with it. You may be on to something and I do like some of your code.

BTW- a change of "close is 10% below high" doesn't do anything.

You might add " draw high 52 week high"

and so many people have come not to just SF saying they have the HOLY GRAIL when in fact its a good hindsight filter.

KSK8
359 posts
msg #145696
Ignore KSK8
12/24/2018 12:31:13 PM

SFMc01,

Centerpoint is the best broker for short selling hard-to-borrow stocks under $5.00.

KSK8
359 posts
msg #145697
Ignore KSK8
12/24/2018 12:51:05 PM

Mac,

Put on your glasses, what are you NOT seeing about this?

close is 10% below high is PART of what makes this criteria so accurate.

If this filter was a human being I would literally get down on one knee and propose to it.

This IS it chief !!

Mactheriverrat
2,146 posts
msg #145699
Ignore Mactheriverrat
12/24/2018 1:19:06 PM

My hats off to you!
Sorry for the poking at you .

Have a Merry Christmas!

nibor100
384 posts
msg #145703
Ignore nibor100
12/24/2018 3:11:49 PM

Who could predict that the first stock picked by a claimed 95% accurate shorting filter for StockFetcher, OBLN, would be a loser????

Could there some pertinent information regarding this strategy that was not provided?

Clearly it wasn't backtested on StockFetcher so what stock data was it backtested on, and how does that data compare to SF stock data?

What is the max drawdown history?

What are the expected "big profits" for a 1 day trade?

If we are supposed to run it every day as this sentence from his 1st post seems to imply: "code me a filter that lets me run the scan button and it gives me a stock that has a 95% chance of making a big profit the next day" .

Why does a quick check of the past 10 days comes up with 6 days of no results?

At that rate, it might take us a little over a year to make 100 trades in order to see if only 5 of them were losers and 95 were winners.

Ed S.






shillllihs
4,670 posts
msg #145704
Ignore shillllihs
12/24/2018 4:25:39 PM

Just another kid with a dream.
But just to entertain you,

1. You know it’s tough as hell to find shares after a spike, everyone wants to short the same crap.
2. If you had all the answers you would not be here.
3. You are excited to get rich ez, and. I commend you for it but this is called irrational exuberance.
4. Problem is you seldom get enough results to work with.
5. 1 bad spike undoes all your efforts.
6. 1 massive spike and you will have to pay even more.
Other than that cool filter.
Are you that old poster Marry for money?

KSK8
359 posts
msg #145705
Ignore KSK8
12/24/2018 4:27:10 PM

Nibor,

Ahem!

Crying about the 5% occurrence and disregarding the incredible accuracy & returns goes to show you are in the same boat as mac.

Why does a quick check of the past 10 days comes up with 6 days of no results?

Learn a prospect called patient. I assume immediately that you're foreign to such an attribute. Very sad for someone who appears to have spent years on this website and can't create a filter that comes close to competing with mine. The strategy is so straight forward it boggles me that some people here can't mathematically grasp it.

Stick to your low win rate and low returns grunt and unless you have something to contribute or a SERIOUS question hop off my thread.


Happy Holidays!

KSK8





KSK8
359 posts
msg #145706
Ignore KSK8
12/24/2018 4:35:39 PM

shillllihs,

I respect your work & contributions to this forum so I won't question your intelligence.

But I will address each concern.

1. Centerpoint offers hard-to-borrow shares, also the best broker for short selling practically anything
2. I'm on here because I can afford for the strategy to decimate and still remain wealthy.
3. I'm already there chief
4. High win rate + high return = worth the wait
5. Short squeezes DO NOT transpire with this setup- I challenge you to present an example
6. If you trade with 200k per position, commissions are diminutive to the outcome of the trade

And no I am not Marry4Money

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up

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