johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #145741
- Ignore johnpaulca |
12/27/2018 9:56:19 PM
KSK8...any chance you could post an equity curve for your filter...thanks.
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145742
- Ignore KSK8
modified |
12/27/2018 10:00:05 PM
Oh Shillllihs...
I'm still waiting for you to post a filter that can outperform mine on a monthly period.
Shillllihs tell us the truth, what is stopping you?
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145743
- Ignore KSK8 |
12/27/2018 10:04:38 PM
johnpaulca,
How about you do me the honors and input the criteria and conditions in your preferred backtester and post the results on this thread for everyone to see. So that way whatever I post won't be immediately assumed as non-credible or fake, considering I am relativity new to this forums.
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nibor100
1,010 posts
msg #145744
- Ignore nibor100 |
12/27/2018 10:13:56 PM
@KSK8,
1. First let me say, that it appears your shorting filter appears to have more winning trades than losing ones using SFdata history, and many of those are greater than 5%, though I still don't know what you meant in your first post by Big gains for each trade.
2..Secondly let me say,
Uh Oh! Uh! Oh!
On Dec 25 you stated I could not possibly find a stock returned by your SF shorting filter that had lost at least 70% in a one day short trade and there never would be such a stock.
It took me about 15 minutes to find MBRX returned by your filter on Jun 27th, 2017, and returned by my offsetting filter on Jun 28th, with a gain, at the close, of 76.34% based on trade entry at the Open.
3. I'm not sure which is more alarming:
a. The fact that your claimed 14 years history couldn't point out a stock with that large a loss to you...or
b. This appears to be evidence that you actually have not been trading this approach
As most people seem to remember when they lose more than half their in trade equity in one day.
4. Another tidbit of data info I found regarding your shorting filter is in the past 18 trading days, it has found 5 stocks that ended up being losing short trades.
I'm sure everyone here on SF would agree that its highly unlikely that there were 95 offsetting winning short trades found by your filter in those same 18 trading days, especially since for 9 of those18 days, your filter returned no trades at all. (that 95% win rate looking a little more shaky....)
5. It still would be useful if you could provide the 14 years of data supporting your claims, as recent SF history doesn't seem to support them.
Thanks,
Ed S.
PS. for everyone who is wondering there were 11 winning trades over those 18 days
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145745
- Ignore KSK8
modified |
12/27/2018 10:38:46 PM
Nibor,
The criteria is RSI(2) crossing above 98. Not just "RSI(2) > 98".
I typed up the filter so quickly I forgot to specify it! Silly me!
So if you find another example under that corrected mistake of mine, I will fold on the basis of it's statistical prospect. I urge you to search for one though!
But on the conjecture of its effectiveness as a system, I have been trading it whenever I get the signal ever since early May this year. It works. You can't tell me it doesn't work. How long it will last, I don't know. If it maintains this short term series of instability regarding its accuracy in conjunction with the established 967 rule, then the win rate will essentially be inadequate. This is an anticipation I feel confident will not subside!
Nibor I know you want to be critical, but come on buddy, give up trying to dismantle it. It outperforms and you know it!
I advise you to try it yourself. Seriously Nibor, give it a try!
You mentioned you spent 15 minutes looking back into the results of the filter's candidates. Certainly you must have seen how profitable it was in retrospect. That's indisputable! Is this NOT the most profitable system filter on stockfetcher??
While everyone is loosing money to this bear correction I myself have been consistently making profit every month because the fundamental drivers of this filter's prospect have no affiliation with the market's catalysts. KEEP THAT IN MIND. This filter outperforms ever system filter I've seen on this site so far and it employs the most simple entry and exit. No denying that!
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Eman93
4,750 posts
msg #145746
- Ignore Eman93
modified |
12/28/2018 10:38:58 AM
This is the same type of way I trade, I have not made millions though.
I use RSI 3 < 90 to indicate oversold condition.
I use 3x etfs, I hold for 2 days, take half or all profits at 3%,(depends if I am with the trend) and will swing the rest.
TZA TNA
TQQQ SQQQ
I try and buy at support and sell resistance.
I use daily and weekly charts to find those areas, could be moving average, price volume, point and fig charts mostly.
I dont know how you would program that into a back test?
some times I will hedge overnight.
I think the entry makes the trade.
So the next big set up using this system would be:
SPY 259-260 and SQQQ RSI 3 < 90, would also love that SPY 260 be a nice fat gap up at the open. I will take profit at a gap fill.
I also use daily pivots to hone in on a good entry, I consider moving avg.
This is a sound way to trade, but very hard to program, I dont think you can just flip the switch and print money.
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145747
- Ignore KSK8 |
12/28/2018 10:57:15 AM
Eman,
"This is the same type of way I trade"
So you have the leisure of entering at the market open and being comfortable walking away and returning back to exit at the market's close? I know the dangers behind doing that in traditional trading, but this is what is so oriental about this system. I've specified numerous times now how it is completely practical. But I suppose everyone here is too afraid to get their feet wet into murky waters...
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miketranz
956 posts
msg #145748
- Ignore miketranz |
12/28/2018 12:04:18 PM
KSK8 What do you have for the long side?
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #145749
- Ignore KSK8 |
12/28/2018 12:15:09 PM
miketranz,
I have a few decent breakout systems but all require me to evaluate risk and don't yield explicit entries and exits that this system gives me. On top of it, they don't have a long term win rate of over 94% so I don't use them.
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shillllihs
5,974 posts
msg #145750
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
12/28/2018 1:32:37 PM
K. Do you need any money, would you like me to send you 20 bucks?
I was thinking we can set up a Gofundme so you could start trading your system.
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