Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150231
- Ignore Cheese |
1/10/2020 10:05:35 AM
karennma,
Posting with my usual ignorance,
I try to keep in the back of my mind that without China supporting USDCNY & USDCNH by selling some
of its USD reserve, its currency will fall and USD will rise, dragging SP500 down very quickly. If China
does not get reprieve from trade deal, this will be one of their bargaining chips.
Funny you should ask me about gold, quite a few charts and indicators have been flashing gold on
an uptrend. See StockCharts.
Happy trading and investing.
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150236
- Ignore Cheese |
1/10/2020 3:17:56 PM
karennma,
Not scientific, no hard evidence, just crude SPX rule of thumb: Red Friday, Red Monday
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150237
- Ignore Cheese
modified |
1/10/2020 3:22:55 PM
karennma,
Another unscientific, no evidence observation: in recent days, SPX seems to be "narrowly" propped up by
techs and sector rotation. In a real strong market, most sectors should be up and stay up. Also, gold up
may mean investors fear and bad omen for SPX.
WDIK
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150252
- Ignore Cheese |
1/10/2020 10:48:02 PM
karennma,
I think you may love this. The authors are smart, successful, and their views seem similar to yours,
also a smart and successul investor.
https://slopeofhope.com/2020/01/the-crazy-train-to-bull-eternity.html
https://twitter.com/saxena_puru
https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1214873867589537792
https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1215431333385605125
Happy trading and investing
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #150262
- Ignore karennma
modified |
1/11/2020 10:16:42 AM
@ Cheese,
Reading Slopofhope now .... (quote):
"However, I would like to point out that Becky was not bragging about this allocation at any time during the past decade. No, she has chosen December 2019 with the S&P 500 up more than 360% since the bottom to let us know about her over-allocation. Herein lies my point. Just like this summer when bonds had already ripped 13 handles higher, market participants usually express this sort of arrogance at points when they feel confident. Extremely confident."
**************************************************
THIS IS EXACTLY what I was talking about regarding Liz Sonders' comment ...
"we're in a bear market" -
Thanks for letting us know Captain Genius - 30 days before it's over.
So, everyone's watching TV and sells at the bottom -- or buys at the top.
Real tricky. (eyeroll).
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #150264
- Ignore karennma |
1/11/2020 11:45:30 AM
@ Cheese,
Reading this ....
https://nftrh.com/2020/01/08/the-running-of-the-gold-bugs-a-tale-as-old-as-time/
Looking at the gold stock charts, I wonder what happened in May/June to make gold go up so fast.
Any ideas???
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #150266
- Ignore karennma
modified |
1/11/2020 1:22:39 PM
@ CHeese,
From one of the RabbitHole articles:
"Equities… just stay in and prosper! No problem in real time because the US stock market always comes back… ALWAYS. This is the kind of stuff that appears near tops; like stuff that uses ultra long-term yearly charts in log scale to smooth out the problems.
So the next time this happens, try to forget that it was caused by epic policy distortions within the system the likes of which have been amped up exponentially since and just remember it’s actually a smooth ride assuming the next thing is like the last thing and you live long enough to reap the benefits."
============================================================
Is he kidding??? I can't tell if he's serious or facetious.
I had plenty of stocks that did NOT have a "smooth ride" the next 20 years and did NOT "reap the benefits".
RMBS (Rambus) @ $600
DNDN @ $200 (cure for cancer? THAT was a bunch of $#*+)
MSTR @ $600
YHOO @ $60
INTC @ $90 - (In 2000, I told a friend I was "set for life". NOT!)
CSCO @ $100 - (Ditto .. NOT!)
AMBA @ $100
CLVS @ $90
Reap the benefits of a "smooth ride"?
NOT!
It's been a slow bumpy ride straight to hell!
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150268
- Ignore Cheese |
1/11/2020 5:07:22 PM
karennma,
About GOLD
I don't have good experience with gold and I have no expertise whatsoever.
I am just parrotting some of the things that I've read.
SlopeOfHope has a few people with niche expertise or knowledge.
I could not find the precise link any more, but their gold "expert" (as recognized by SoH peers)
said that MONTHLY MA(50) and MACD (12,26,9) together are the most reliable indicators that
he goes to,
Please do your own due diligence.
Good luck.
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150270
- Ignore Cheese |
1/11/2020 5:17:43 PM
karennma,
I see that the daily charts from your link also use 2 indicators MA(50) and MACD(12,26,9)
https://nftrh.com/2020/01/08/the-running-of-the-gold-bugs-a-tale-as-old-as-time/
Some people often pointed to the fractal nature of moving averages of prices,
and a cursory look at the daily, weekly, monthly MA(50) and MACD(12,26,9) gold charts
seem to tell the same stories at the moment (up trend weakening?).
Best wishes.
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150272
- Ignore Cheese |
1/11/2020 5:32:11 PM
karennma,
I don't know what the RabbitHole article you mentioned was about,
but you are probably smarter than 99% of posters on trading and investing forums.
So, ignore anything that doesn't feel right.
|