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General Discussion · Let's Play "The Falling Knife" Game
Cheese
msg #157687
9/26/2021 6:12:23 PM

When karennma is proven right, there could be a lot of pains.
This Late Stage Asset Bubble chart by Ron Walker
suggests that $SPX has moved from Euphoria to Complacency.
The next steps would be Anxiety, Denial, Fear, Despair, Panic
https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=14&mn=10&dy=0&id=p48232827106&a=727350576&r=944

General Discussion · Let's Play "The Falling Knife" Game
Cheese
msg #157686
modified
9/26/2021 1:30:38 PM

Thank you, styliten

General Discussion · Let's Play "The Falling Knife" Game
Cheese
msg #157683
9/26/2021 12:22:13 AM

https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/General-Discussion/Let-s-Play-The-Falling-Knife-Game/156318/80
=================================================================================

Jeremy Grantham said: When everybody agrees, then something else will happen.

So, if ZM support levels of 280-ish, 220-ish and 180-ish seem obvious to many chart authors,
then they are unlikely to happen.

If unsure, stay out.
I will likely stay out of ZM for a while.

General Discussion · Let's Play "The Falling Knife" Game
Cheese
msg #157682
9/25/2021 11:43:54 PM

Mactheriverrat,

I like your ZM chart of 9/24/2021 9:03:49 PM
Your support levels of 280-ish, 220-ish and 180-ish seem quite popular
I've even come up with the same myself when looking at different ZM charts from different authors.

As you often said, so many of us essentially look at the same thing.

Our biases will likely become self-fulfilling prophecies.
Lower prices will likely get lower because of our herd mentality of many people
who actually don't know very much about ZM, present and future.

Good grief.

Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0
Cheese
msg #157680
9/25/2021 3:23:02 PM

THANKS AGAIN, redversa721.
I've learned a lot from your posts.

I forgot to mention an idea that TRO used to mentor chip in earlier years:
Just trade one stock and learn to make $100 consistently, it's a license to print money.

;^)

Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0
Cheese
msg #157677
9/25/2021 1:41:00 PM

https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Filter-Exchange/TRO-S-CROCK-POT-2-0/115856/120
redversa721 9/25/2021 1:07:11 PM

with regard to exit, I am sticking with what oldsmar52 said in his last few posts where he let the stocks just leave them as unsold.
=================================================================================

@redversa721

I am still torn between two things:
* cut loss early
* or ride it out

With some pain, regrets and embarassment, I sometimes want to give myself a whack on the head
for cutting losses early. So, rightly or wrongly, I think I should ride out unrealized losses if I have
a multi-years investment horizon and if the instruments are good non-leveraged ETFs or some good
US blue chip stocks. I am not into options or leveraged instruments, which have built-in decays.

I'd leave you with this sarcastic post from a sarcastic Twitter account about his own trades:
Every trade started out as a scalp,
if my scalp fails, it becomes a day trade
If the day trade fails, it becomes a swing
If a swing fails, it becomes buy and hold.

As long as my positions are small and my unrealized losses are small, I can ride my poor trades out.

redversa721, thanks again for your crock pot posts.

Best


Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0
Cheese
msg #157676
9/25/2021 1:22:43 PM

https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Filter-Exchange/TRO-S-CROCK-POT-2-0/115856/120
redversa721 9/25/2021 1:07:11 PM
=======================================================================

@redversa721

THANK YOU for the details ! They are very helpful for my learning.

After reading so many threads and posts, my crock pot learning and trading becomes
more of a fusion than an authentic crock pot. I blended in some of TRO suggestions or systems
from earlier year: fade the gap, aim for 10 cents below open.

That's just my silly thing. PLEASE, don't spend your hard earned money on my two cents' worth.

THANKS AGAIN, redversa721. You are a very kind person.

Best.

Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0
Cheese
msg #157675
9/25/2021 1:13:05 PM

https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Filter-Exchange/TRO-S-CROCK-POT-2-0/115856/100
Mactheriverrat modified 8/29/2021 11:12:26 PM

When I see posts about different filters from TRO to 13th_floors and many others. I try and find different entry.

I came with this add on (one of many like Guppy, or Alligator system or others) of using EMA(13) and the Elder Impluse system. It can really be used with Stockcharts.com free version with the Elder Impluse as candle use.

-------------------
Draw ema(13)
/* 1313 is number of consecutive days EMA(13) above (+)/below(-) previous EMA(13) */
set{1313b,days( ema(13) is above ema(13) one day ago ,250)}
set{1313a,days( ema(13) is below ema(13) one day ago,250)}
set{13x13, 1313a - 1313b} and add column 13x13 {13_x_13}

Set{cntema13aboveema13,count( eMA(13) > eMA(13) 1day ago,1)}
draw cntema13aboveema13

Set{cntema13aboveema13b,count( eMA(13)< EMA(13) 1day ago,1)}

draw cntema13aboveema13b
draw MACD Fast Line(10,24,8)

do not draw macd Histogram(10,24,8) set{var1, macd Histogram(10,24,8)}
draw var1 Legend{var1, macd Histogram(10,24,8)} PlotType{var1,zerobar}
=======================================================================


Mactheriverrat .

Sorry for the late reply. Somehow I missed reading your post earlier.

Thank you for your code and suggestion.
EMA(13) and Elder Impulse System are all great gifts from Dr Elder.


Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0
Cheese
msg #157673
modified
9/25/2021 1:05:01 PM

ron22 8/29/2021 10:13:34 PM
I understand that WAIT FOR GREEN means at open wait for the price to get and stay above previous day's close. Sometimes the price gaps up and then goes down before it reaches a 2% target.
One question:
Do you think it would be beneficial on gaps up to: A) wait for 20 cent gain, B) wait for 1/2% gain, C) wait to hold GREEN for 10 minutes, or D) wait for price to be above previous day's high before entering a trade?
I would appreciate any feedback . Thank you. Ron
==================================================================================

Ron,

Sorry for the late reply. Somehow I missed seeing your post earlier.

I am still learning and overwhelmed with the amount of crock pot posts and threads.
Plus, TRO and others often referred to his stat scans, MTC, and RFR when discussing crock pot,
so I also tried to read those and benefit from reading the stuff in continuum.

You may want to do a search on WAIT FOR GREEN in StockFetcher. There are many nuances.
For example, WAIT FOR GREEN could mean wait for markets open up, your stocks open up
and likely up, and/or smart money is ready to buy (there are thread and posts by TRO.)

For crock pot, somebody suggested that aiming for 1% a week or 0.2% a day may be better
for learners, so that's what I've tried to do.

I also follow a few conventional investing and trading wisdom. I always assume that my decisions
are wrong or will be wrong. I only buy things that I am willing to hold if my decision is wrong and
I cannot sell right away. Otherwise, the early loss is usually the smaller loss. Read some of the
Guppy trades posted by Mactheriverrat and see how quickly Mac cut his losses.

In the case of crock pot trading, there were some suggestions for (mental) stop losses.
It seems like for learners, aim for 1% gain weekly and cut loss at 2%.
I think in the original crock pot, TRO suggested exit as soon as the weekly 1% target was achieved
or exit at the end of the week at the latest. TRO kept repeating this advice: Don't be greedy.

EDIT:
I think TRO also suggested to exit when our set stop loss was hit.


Ron, the above is just my own foible. You are actually a better researched and more accomplished
trader, so don't buy my two cents' worth.

Best

Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0
Cheese
msg #157672
9/25/2021 12:10:29 PM


@redversa721

THANK YOU VERY MUCH again for continuing to share your crock pot trading experience.
Your posts and crock pot warnings by VenturaTrader and a few others are very useful !

The devil is in the details, and there are so many details. I am still learning, very slowly
and very carefully. I thought TRO said to exit at the end of the week (but I am not sure,
and I don't have the link.)

You seem like a very kind person and a smart trader so I hope you will come out ahead.

Best


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