StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up
5,087 posts
msg #136545
Ignore four
6/27/2017 11:08:56 PM

I want the money streams to compound at least 2% a week.
Have you calculated the annual return on this want? What would happen to a start of $50,000 by the end of the 5th year? the 10th year?


Positive gain is $wins greater than $losses (Do we have positive net return?). And what is the ratio of #wins to #losses--60/40, 70/30...?
A percent return must be greater on a win to make up for a loss.
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain on the remainder. Remember taxes and commissions are drags.

Loss (%)....... Req'd Gain
5%................. 5.2%
10%................. 11%
15%................. 18%
20%................. 25%
25%................. 33%
30%................. 43%
35%................. 54%
40%................. 67%
45%................. 82%
50%................ 100%

1,251 posts
msg #136553
Ignore pthomas215
6/28/2017 12:26:03 PM

sandjco, i am in Four's camp. Buy more on the way up, not down. I have a hard time doing it, but it is the better path. also forgot to say paper trade. I still paper trade to this day as part of testing new methods and new strategies.

648 posts
msg #136562
Ignore sandjco
6/29/2017 5:00:48 AM

It went from red to green on D2. Was thinking of adding to the position but also wanted to wait for the price to cross the EMA or the EMAs to cross (which looks like they did). Analysis paralysis happened; no action was taken! if it moves up today; I'll add to the position.

Thanks for the feedback; I do appreciate it. Definitely a lot to digest, learn, understand and apply.

RE: backtesting
the only "backtesting" I did was using the "historical" analysis function on SF and eyeballing when the signals would have been triggered over the past year and compared it to any failures. This one showed well with the previous 2 bounces.

RE: stops
For sure, this is something for me to learn/apply. Bigger range...tighter stops?

RE: catching a falling knife
definitely on the back of my mind. given that i'm buying indexes the pain may not be as severe?

RE: what return do I want?
net of commissions; my goal is to make at least 2% a week. However, I do know that is a stretch given that I've split the $50K into 5 streams of $10K each and I may not use all streams each week in full consistently.

RE: paper trade
I've paper traded for over a year and doing it "live" is so much different (at least initially) as I seem to find myself over analyzing trades that I would have taken on paper but did not using real money. RUSL was a perfect example recently for me...I wanted to take the trade and thought too much...

BTW...can a filter be created wherein it would spit signals to buy stocks when SPY RSI (14) is over 50? or is this possible using the correlation function?

Cheers....have a great trading day!

648 posts
msg #136578
Ignore sandjco
6/30/2017 12:55:33 AM

Interesting sold off hard and then tried to come back. Was tempted to add today...but didn't (head keeps on telling me to wait for it to go from red to green!)

648 posts
msg #136584
Ignore sandjco
6/30/2017 10:00:53 AM

Plan the trade; trade the plan. Didn't really do that yesterday.

It was almost like the tree was being shaken yesterday. It looked like crap was gonna hit the fan and then surge of buyers stepping in. Set up for a fall?

panic didn't last.

1,251 posts
msg #136585
Ignore pthomas215
6/30/2017 10:06:48 AM

be patient. vix....will pop

5,410 posts
msg #136586
Ignore shillllihs
6/30/2017 11:35:51 AM

You are in good hands with this crew Sandy. They are what I like to call, The Dream Team of Trading.

5,087 posts
msg #136609
Ignore four
7/3/2017 3:01:14 PM

buy on the way up

648 posts
msg #136613
Ignore sandjco
7/4/2017 10:26:05 AM

Thanks pt, shilllihs, and four!

Also thanks to Mactheriverrat ....found Guppy interesting!

nice looking uptrend. how would you find strong up trending candidates?

pardon my ignorance four...when someone says "buy on the way up", that would mean wait for it to go red to green or buy it when it breaches the most recent high of $61.52?

My brain is telling me: watch for it to go from red to green tomorrow and initiate a position. if it doesn't, place it on I processing the info correctly?

Happy 4th!

1,251 posts
msg #136614
Ignore pthomas215
7/4/2017 10:31:24 AM

there typically a support level a stock falls to. some people buy and accumulate on the way down until it hits support. we are suggesting to wait to take a position until it bounces off support and is heading up again..then buy more on the way up.

StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up

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