Gossett Trading & Mentoring - 2/12/22 - Review of last week's stock trades & potential stock trade set ups for the upcoming week

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Gossett Trading & Mentoring - 2/12/22 - Review of last week's stock trades & potential stock trade set ups for the upcoming week

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davesaint86 725 posts msg #159018 - Ignore davesaint86	5/2/2022 8:19:54 PM Nice Ed. It's hard to make gains when you are swimming against the tide.
nibor100 1,042 posts msg #159033 - Ignore nibor100	5/7/2022 12:41:59 AM @davesaint86, 1. I've finished documenting his 4 months of weekly videos, and I seemed to notice that he might not have an actual written down trading plan as in a couple of instances he seemed to make spur of the moment decisions different that his usual ones. Do you know if he has a formal set of trading rules to follow that are written down? 2. Also, there were a few instances where he didn't know for sure what if any 10% share reduction 0.45 ATR profit targets had been taken on a particular stock which would seem to indicate he doesn't keep an accurate log/history of his trades. Do you if does keep a trading log? 3. Preliminary findings from his 4 months of weekly trading videos documenting his Daily, Weekly, and Monthly trades shows that he has been in 49 trades so far this year, 2 are still Open as of last weekend and 47 have been closed. 24 trades were closed before reaching any 0.45 ATR profit targets were he takes off 10% of his shares in the trade. The majority of his trades have been losers but it will take a while to figure out exactly how many ended up being profitable due to the profit target methodology and the trailing stop mode executions where he takes 50% of shares out of the trade . It doesn't look like he could possibly gain 15-18% profits this year averaging 3 trades per week while only risking 1/2 a % of his trading capital per trade as he has a lot of small losses to overcome and only 8 months to do it in and now he has the market and mathematics working against him. Thanks, Ed S.
davesaint86 725 posts msg #159037 - Ignore davesaint86	5/7/2022 7:43:38 PM https://www.tradingview.com/x/nJdiShMP/ Here is what I wrote down. See my other post below this one.
davesaint86 725 posts msg #159038 - Ignore davesaint86	5/7/2022 8:06:20 PM 1. I posted the rules. I'm guessing he deviates from the rules especially in a bearish trading environment. I know he days trades throughout the day with his trading partner. I now they have been shorting a lot on the 1 minute chart. 2. I do not know if he has a trading log. 3. I agree. Like I said in a previous post, you do not want to swim against the tide. The tide is bearish. And if you do trade the bearish side, you me want to lower your chart time frame and get in and out of trades quick. Here is what I'm doing. I created the spreadsheet below. I'm using the Vix/Bond (Risk-on/Risk-off) indicator I think Kevin developed along with a scoring system that Charting Wealth is now utilizing. I also have numerous profitable strategies that I developed in ETF Replay and Portfolio Visualizer. Almost all of them use momentum. I cannot see myself going long right now in stock or ETFs like AMZN, MSFT, TSLA. I can see going long DBC, XLE, and XLP once I receive a buy signal again. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FqP1uaYV/ @davesaint86, 1. I've finished documenting his 4 months of weekly videos, and I seemed to notice that he might not have an actual written down trading plan as in a couple of instances he seemed to make spur of the moment decisions different that his usual ones. Do you know if he has a formal set of trading rules to follow that are written down? 2. Also, there were a few instances where he didn't know for sure what if any 10% share reduction 0.45 ATR profit targets had been taken on a particular stock which would seem to indicate he doesn't keep an accurate log/history of his trades. Do you if does keep a trading log? 3. Preliminary findings from his 4 months of weekly trading videos documenting his Daily, Weekly, and Monthly trades shows that he has been in 49 trades so far this year, 2 are still Open as of last weekend and 47 have been closed. 24 trades were closed before reaching any 0.45 ATR profit targets were he takes off 10% of his shares in the trade. The majority of his trades have been losers but it will take a while to figure out exactly how many ended up being profitable due to the profit target methodology and the trailing stop mode executions where he takes 50% of shares out of the trade . It doesn't look like he could possibly gain 15-18% profits this year averaging 3 trades per week while only risking 1/2 a % of his trading capital per trade as he has a lot of small losses to overcome and only 8 months to do it in and now he has the market and mathematics working against him. Thanks, Ed S.
nibor100 1,042 posts msg #159065 - Ignore nibor100	5/16/2022 12:05:11 PM My most recent round of questions and answers to and from G. Gossett...500 trades a day sounds like an awful lot to me: Ed S. "Hi Ed, Trading is mixed. Swing trades have been down last months but thankfully I have had a record day trading month so far. So I have answered your questions below in green. 1. Since Dr. Elder is very keen about record keeping, I was trying to set up a spreadsheet to document your trades presented in your weekly video series, as well as my own, and I'm kind of stumped on how to easily handle documenting the Partial Profits 10% position reductions, at 0.45 ATR levels above prior closes, as well as the various levels of Trailing Stop mode reductions of 50% of remaining position off, as it appears in some cases you reduce by 50% as many as 3 times in one trade. Could you explain how you document keeping track of those items trade by trade? Yes it is hard to keep track of it all with profit targets and trailing stops. To be honest I used to enter all the trades into my platform so I could get all of the stats but I don’t do it anymore. One entry and one exit is pretty easy but with my day trading I some times place up to 500 trades a day to it consumes too much time to enter them all in. That being said it definitely is a good practice to enter your trades each day. (unless you make 500 trades a day like me) 2..Related to the same subject, I found looking at a couple of your older daily videos that you sometimes took 6, to 7 or more 10% profit targets during a given stock's day trade, but that you seem to only set 3 levels of 10% profit targets on your weekly videos relating to the various swing trades. So, do you take a maximum of 3 profits targets per day per trade on the swing trades, if the price moves enough or more? My standard practice is to only set three profit targets per day. It is very rare to hit all three but that is my process. Yes there are time that I hit more than three and in those situations I manually just add the 4th, 5th, 6th etc. intra-day if and when they happen. 3. Did you get your Value Zone range idea for the +1 and -1 ATR/Keltner Bands from Dr. Elder, or Steve Burns, or Kerry Lovvorn? Or is it your own technique? I got this mainly from Kerry Lovvorn who is Dr. Elder’s trading and business partner. Dr. Elder uses them as well but I mainly learned this from Kerry. Hope that these answers helped Ed. Have a great upcoming week!
davesaint86 725 posts msg #159074 - Ignore davesaint86	5/16/2022 7:35:59 PM Glad he is answering your questions.
nibor100 1,042 posts msg #159076 - Ignore nibor100	5/16/2022 8:32:41 PM Well the answer to question 1 was an avoidance answer, he could have still answered how he had done it, but his answer did confirm what I suspected, is that he doesn't track his trades so he can't possibly learn from his losers or his winners in order to improve. 5 months of predominantly losing trades could teach him a few things if he was open minded. I bet all 3 of his one on one trading instructors advised him strongly to keep records in order to be the best trader he could be. Question 2 was answered, Question 3 was vaguely answered as after all, his Value Zone is the range between 1 ATR and -1 ATR around the 20 day avg and yet he can't attribute it to the specific person who told him about it. Seems odd since it is such a key part of trading regime. He only answers my questions on Sunday evenings/nights so a long wait each week and I probably won't be asking him anymore questions. I'll post some of his answers to my 2nd round of questions that you'll probably get a charge out of. By the way, in one of his last 2 weekly videos he praised his recent student David :). Thanks, Ed S.
nibor100 1,042 posts msg #159082 - Ignore nibor100	5/17/2022 11:01:27 AM Below is the prior set of questions and Gossett answers: Ed S. ">>Hi Ed, >>Below please find my answers to you questions and comments. a. The primary reason I asked my last question 1, about getting out before earnings on one of your monthly trades, is because I recently watched a couple of your January weekly videos and it appears that you kept your monthly trade in XOM way past its October 2021 earnings date; so I thought that perhaps keeping track of monthly earnings dates is harder since you focus on the end of the month for certain aspects of your monthly trades. If you look at the 1/9/22 video around minute 17 you'll see what I saw. >>Yes, I did miss getting out of XOM before earnings. It was simply an oversight. b. Regarding your answer to my last question 3, I was able to find a brief paper that a trader of some renown, Linda Bradfor Raschke, had written about Keltner channel trading and in that paper she stated that her research indicated the following: " I put Keltner Channels set at 2.5 times the 20-day average daily range centered around the 20-period EMA. This is set wide enough so that it contains 95% of the price action. In flat trading markets, as indicated by flat moving averages, it serves as a realistic objective to exit positions. However, I find its greatest value is in functioning as a filter to signal runaway market conditions, much as a rising ADX would do." >>I know Linda and she was also a student of Dr. Elder’s so I imagine that is where she learned about the Keltner Channel percentages. Again I was taught that the 3rd Keltner Channel contains 92% of the price action. c. In your latest weekly video, you run several ETF Replay moving avg backtests for TSLA and appear to come away with the opinion that they are positive backtests whereas I look at the same backtests and come away with the opposite opinion, especially considering how you trade. Taking the TSLA ETF replay backtest on crossovers of the 300 day moving avg as an example: 1. In the top left below the ETF Replay equity chart is a Pie Chart display of Winning vs. Losing Trades and it shows that almost 87% of those crossover trades are losers for TSLA. Or in this instance for TSLA out of the 45 possible trade entries in its history, only 6 of those would have positive gains. 2. In the bottom left display it shows avg days in trade, which is important to the way you trade, as for most of these longer moving avg crossover trade backtests, the Avg Days in Trade for winners is much, much longer than you would ever be in most of your stock trades, due to your policy of getting out before earnings, ie. 63 days in trade at most. Of course, if one is not in those long winning trades for the full time, the Return % chart would change to much lower values. >>Those winning percentages and profit and loss numbers on ETF Replay are based on a mechanical system. All that I look at ETF reply for is to see if the entry produced a profit. This is enough for me to enter. I do not hold these long term in a mechanical fashion. I phase out at certain profit targets and I have trailing stops. Again, I use ETF reply just to see if the entry has an edge. c. Also, due to your method of looking for a confluence of signals to enter a trade, there is a likelihood that you would not have gotten into some of those 300 moving avg crossover trades, winners or losers. >> Yes that is true on the whole. I do favor entries that have combinations and convergences of signals as they improve the likelihood of profitable trade."
davesaint86 725 posts msg #159083 - Ignore davesaint86	5/17/2022 11:54:26 AM By the way, in one of his last 2 weekly videos he praised his recent student David :). What did David do, lol? I did not listen to the last two weeks of videos. Great questions you asked. Let's say that the broad market is up (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500) in strong uptrend and the prices of these indexes are above MA(200) and MA(50). Is there better chance of success trading stocks and/or ETFs that fall under these indexes? Compare the success rate now. You will be swimming against the tide.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Gossett Trading & Mentoring - 2/12/22 - Review of last week's stock trades & potential stock trade set ups for the upcoming week

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