StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · questions on TQQQ trading explorations.<< >>Post Follow-up
graftonian
815 posts
msg #147582
Ignore graftonian
modified
4/27/2019 5:55:39 PM

Ed,
Is this what you had in mind for Rule 2?
Fetcher[
/* Eds Rule 2 */
symlist(tqqq,upro,iwm)
/* 2. When %K turns down through the 3 day average (%D) and difference is > 5%, sell the position. */
draw Slow Stochastics Slow %D(14)
set{rule2a, count(Slow Stochastics Fast %K(14) below Slow Stochastics Slow %D(14), 1)}
draw rule2a
set{ssfk14, Slow Stochastics Fast %K(14)}
set{sssd14, Slow Stochastics Slow %D(14)}
set{sdiff, sssd14 - ssfk14}

set{rule2b, count(sdiff > 5, 1)}
draw rule2b
draw sdiff draw sdiff line at 5 draw sdiff line at 0
]



I think you are on to something here. As far as trading SQQQ, I've never had any luck. But then it has always been a bull market (in my short trading history).

nibor100
398 posts
msg #147584
Ignore nibor100
4/28/2019 1:10:16 AM

Not sure that was in my mind but your filter appears to do Rule 2 up right!

For this strategy, I'm kind of leaning toward not including SQQQ at this time, but more testing is probably required.

Thanks,
Ed S.

shillllihs
4,698 posts
msg #147585
Ignore shillllihs
4/28/2019 1:40:30 AM

Here's some stuff I had for trading Xiv if it helps at all. Sf. Can't do monthly but it is what it is.
I don't feel like deciphering it all but might translate to trading tqqq.
Made me a few 100k.

1. BULL PHASE
PLAY XIV NORMALLY BUYING DIPS
UNTIL TREND ENDS WHEN WEEKLY
CCI(39) GOES BELOW AND OVER
-150



2. SWING UNCERTAIN PHASE
BEGINS WHEN WEEKLY CCI(39) EMERGES UNDER THEN OVER -150,
UNTIL XIV GOES UNDER ON THE WEEKLY MOMENTUM OSCILLATOR(12) OR (24) GOES UNDER 50, AND PARABOLIC IS ON THE BOTTOM, THEN GO BACK TO PHASE 1.
GO LONG TMF, OR SHORT TMV, UNTIL MONTHLY XIV CLOSES
BELOW SMA(21)
THEN GO LONG XIV, UNTIL TMF GOES BELOW SMA(21) ON THE MONTHLY.
OR SHORT TMV AND LONG MAYBE 10% EACH DGAZ,DUST,DWTI ETC. COMMODITIES, AND SHORT LONG COMMODITIES LIKE UGAZ NUGT UWTI
OR IF SH SMA(2) IS CLOSE TO CLOSING ABOVE SMA(21) just SHORT XIV
SPY COULD DROP 15%
AND XIV 45%


3. BEAR PHASE USING SH
SO FAR, SHORT EITHER SPXL OR SSO WHEN MONTHLY SMA(2) CLOSES OVER SMA(21) BULL USING SH, PHASE STARTS WHEN MONTHLY SMA(2) CLOSES BELOW SMA(21) ON SH
SHORT TMV MAYBE SDS FOR A SHORT WHILE AND SHORT SSO, UYG ETC.

BEST
JUST SHORT TMV 40%
THAT WOULD BE 15% DRAWDOWN
MAYBE DO 25% TMV AND 25% XIV SHORT


graftonian
815 posts
msg #147602
Ignore graftonian
4/29/2019 4:38:54 PM

ED,
"4. When %K is above 80% and the price candlesticks are above the upper Bollinger Bands hold your position until the price candlesticks are below the upper Bollinger Band."

Question, Do you mean the whole candlestick (excluding shadows) or just the body-bottom?

Neat trick I just learned in excel:
=if(and(a whole list of criteria separated by commas),true result,false result)
Thanx, Graf

shillllihs
4,698 posts
msg #147652
Ignore shillllihs
modified
5/1/2019 12:19:20 PM

I have to say that EMA2 or EMA3 cross of EMA9 is pretty good and as close to the best you can find but it's not perfect. Perhaps this could be coupled with how Tqqq performed on mondays, snow days, lunar cycles & candle patterns etc. But I do believe ema and other indicators do not work in bear cycles as demonstrated in 2008. but I could be wrong.
Another aspect that I have found to be true is you need to identify the long range trend of the market therefore tqqq should be played with let's say 80-100% in a long tqqq ema cross and scale out in increments on the way up, and Sqqq should be played at 40-50% on a sqqq long cross, then scale out in increments. The reverse is true when in a bear phase where sqqq will be the higher allocation etc.

nibor100
398 posts
msg #147658
Ignore nibor100
5/2/2019 11:18:43 AM

@graftonian

1. Regarding your guestion below:

"4. When %K is above 80% and the price candlesticks are above the upper Bollinger Bands hold your position until the price candlesticks are below the upper Bollinger Band."

Question, Do you mean the whole candlestick (excluding shadows) or just the body-bottom?

My current answer: I'm not sure, I've been putting off looking thru my old emails and forum archives for the answer to that question as I suspect it was asked 4 years ago of the guy who developed that strategy.

2. I agree 'AND' function in Excel is very very handy when used within If statements and don't forget its half brother 'OR'....

Thanks,
Ed S.

graftonian
815 posts
msg #147671
Ignore graftonian
5/3/2019 8:54:08 AM

Ed, Thanks for the reply, keep up the good work.

graftonian
815 posts
msg #147695
Ignore graftonian
modified
5/5/2019 10:07:41 AM

Ed, Thanx for the rule 4 clarification, Grandma is off watching the GKs, I've got all day to cobble something together :-)

chi-town
37 posts
msg #147696
Ignore chi-town
5/5/2019 10:16:33 AM

Nice work!

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