| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Guardant Health (GH) - looks like a decent short opportunity | << 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147172 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/1/2019 11:37:28 PM More fun -  Short 10000 shares of AVEO at the open. Will hold until the ROC(5,1) drops below 50 Also,  Short 800 shares at the open. Same exit strategy |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147191 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/3/2019 2:45:23 PM PHAS - in yesterday at the open price of $11.13, out today at $10.49 for a gain of 5.75%. Still holding AVEO as it has not crossed below the ROC(5,1) line yet. |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147201 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/4/2019 3:55:06 PM AVEO - in at $1.25, out at $0.93 for a gain of 25.6%. So, let's look at performance to date - no compounding, which is a way to make a system look better than it really is. Just a straight $10,000 per trade and take whatever profit is given. GH - gain of 7.9% (+$790) SRNE - gain of 4.8% (+$480) SRNE - gain of 5.4% (+$540) DERM - loss of 1.23% (-$123) PHAS - gain of 5.75% (+$575) AVEO - gain of 25.6% (+$2560) Non-compounded gain of $4821 or 48.2% ...good stats and consistent win rates, but more than half of that profit came in the last trade. That reflects the volatility of these types of setups, but at least it is volatility in your favor. |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147202 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/4/2019 4:11:03 PM Here is the simple filter I have been using for this thread. Not rocket science - I just look for stocks that have gone up a lot over the past few days (usually 100% or more) and anticipate a retrace. Should have jumped into YRIV at the close today but was too busy. Keep an eye on it for fun. |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147210 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/5/2019 12:39:00 PM YRIV opened at 1.73, now at 1.32 (short trade gain of 23.7%). However, I did not explicitly say I would trade this one so I won't add it to the list. |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147211 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/5/2019 12:42:23 PM ZYNE - short 1000 shares at 8.70. |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147217 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/5/2019 2:18:53 PM YRIV down to $1.14 (a drop of 34% from today's open). THCT and EDAP ... both look like good shorting opportunities at the close. Will paper trade these for fun since I am at work and can't get the trades placed by EOD. |
| nibor100 1,031 posts msg #147221 - Ignore nibor100 |
4/5/2019 2:56:55 PM Some observations on the Performance to Date post: a. if a stock trading system uses compounding as part of its money management/trade initiation approach then it probably is not "making a system look better than it really is", especially if it ends up having several losing trades of any significance as long as compounding is followed for every trade. b. The way the results are presented for this thread seem to imply there is a consistent trading approach being followed, for traders limited to a $10,000 trading account. However, 1. One of the early rules presented was to trade only stocks that traded at $3 and above, but clearly AVEO and the filter presented yesterday do not follow that rule. 2. Many of the paper trades proposed were in excess of $10,000 at initiation, but reported profit percentages did seem accurate. 3. On at least 2 occasions, at least 2 trades were being held at the same time, which would be impossible, if limited to a single $10,000 trading account. 4. Due to item 3, the total gains should probably be re-calculated and expressed against an account size of $20,000 or more instead of implying there was an overall single $10,000 account gain of 48.2%, or maybe it doesn't matter in a mostly paper trade, risk free, experiment/test.... 5. No matter how the gains are presented this shorting system seems to have excellent merit based on a very small sample of trades during a mature bull market. Reminds me of a VV friend who dabbled in trading Bull Put spreads in 2013 and for 3 months all of his trades had profits, averaging about 9.5%, then he decided to continue trading that approach until he had a loss. 12 months late,r his 30th Bull Put Spread had a -33% loss and he stopped trading that system immediately and he wasn't even using a compounding approach. 6. and to go really off the wall, unless a trading system is started on an account using totally new funds that were not ever increased nor decreased by trading results, aren't most of us already compounding to some degree... Ed S. |
| Village Elder 231 posts msg #147224 - Ignore Village Elder |
4/5/2019 3:53:42 PM Actually you are right about several things. I never indicated that there is an iron-clad approach I was following - quite the opposite. I simply indicated that I look for stocks that have shot up over the past 5 days and look sort of parabolic. I usually try to keep the stocks at closing prices above $3, but am flexible on occasion to take a lower priced trade based on liquidity, and am willing to take on a trade or two that ignore this guideline (e.g., AVEO) when it looks like it will be profitable. If there are more than one decent candidate, I post them all here. True that this would invalidate the $10,000 initial equity rule. Just trying to share with folks here trades that look promising. Thanks for the feedback. I'll keep posting possible trades and report the results. In truth for any decent trading system (and trader) the trade results speak for themselves. |
| chi-town 44 posts msg #147227 - Ignore chi-town |
4/5/2019 4:38:46 PM Thanks, Village Elder |
| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Guardant Health (GH) - looks like a decent short opportunity | << 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up |