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General Discussion · Is this a valid newbie approach?
tulanch
msg #49056
1/8/2007 3:25:06 PM

I’m a newbie and wanted to put my thoughts down about my approach as some other newbie in the future may find it enlightening - I've been reading the technical bibles and testing in a simulator (need one that does not have a 20 minute delay). I also greatly enjoy reading this forum and know there is a lot to learn via experience. But my reading has again and again eluted to KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid. I’ve read the SF links about “waiting for green” and the “bb squeeze”. From knowledge of how bb’s are derived mathematically, I came to the conclusion that the “bb squeeze” occurs on consolidation patterns such as a right ascending triangles (yea there’s the newbie in me – triangles love em, understand em). I also find the alignment of the “3 days down filter” interesting, especially when it overlaps within the 2/3’rds area of a triangle’s apex. What is even more interesting is that SF can do all of this for me via a single filter and present me a list of candidates! So at night, say I find 30 or so candidates in the price range I live in. I review them looking for “reasons not to purchase” …reviewing past history performance…potential or coiled up energy if you will…even number crosses …review previous support and resistance levels, and volume patterns, plus obtain ATR values (5, 10 and 20 day) of these stocks. I then end up with a final listing of what I would be interested in buying… this takes maybe an hour. I store all this data in a spread sheet including expected initial purchase prices, calculated/defined initial stops, and calculated/defined expected out prices. I then build a screener with these stocks symbols - on a service that has intraday updates (yahoo offers this plus I can import a CSV file of the symbols to create the screen of, in the same order as stored in my spread sheet). The next morning at 7:30 MST (9:30 EST) as I get a cup of coffee I keep an eye on the screener…”waiting for green” …which I interpret as watching the little price arrows on the screener (green if up, red if down) looking for a constant and consistent upward movement, plus keeping an eye on the volume of these stocks based on previous volumes, looking for spikes – I noticed that the spikes happen quickly on the day a stock makes a run and one needs to also move quickly to get on board as it can all be over within an hour…so when I see one of these jumpings I get in at the price defined the night before based on the values as stored in the spreadsheet. I want to buy in/up as I want do what I can to keep the momentum moving up. Once purchased I move quickly to establish a stop. I found that a generic % values for the stop does not work too well (whipsaw), I much prefer to take into account the ATR, but again this has already been defined the night before, so thinking not required at this time. I have considered setting a top out but also know I should let it run baby, let it run. Some systems let you have trigger sales – initial purchase triggers the initial stop order, but you are limited based on the system ( ie tradeking has a disclaimer of what is valid and what is not for automated/trigger trades - can do on Nasdaq > $1, not clear about NYSE or otherss) …around 8:30am (MST) I go to work and if I did purchase some of last nights candidates, I monitor them, upping the stop if needed and also ready to get out as I don’t want to be too greedy. My overall plan/goal is to sell within 3 days per the “3 day hold” strategy and reinvest/compound things - someday doing this for a living. Is this a valid approach? If a stock does run, should one ½ reinvest and ½ reinvest again if it’s a really good runner? Is this too simple? And how/where online can one trade stocks that are listed under $1 (.pk and .otc) ?

-T



General Discussion · how to judge morning volume
tulanch
msg #48904
1/3/2007 1:03:06 PM

I have read again and again to watch volume (and price) around 10am is to see if the stock is performing as expected, but how does one judge volume is up? It's obvious it volume is above the average at that time, but what if it's a fraction (say less than 33%) of average volume? Are there any guidelines on this concept say if volume is > 25% aver vol then it's up?



General Discussion · how to obtain measures for specific symbol
tulanch
msg #48819
12/28/2006 6:22:53 PM

Thanks.. need a better way to set those inital stop limits...my simple 3 % rule keeps biting me in the ass. So I thought doing a quick ATR check would be appropriate and adjust the inital set accordingly.

I have found your posts on this forum rather enlighting and entertaining...
I'm rather new at this game, but love the numbers, all this looks a lot like calculus and differencial equations in my warped mechanical mind....I think the green fuction applied to this approach of stock investing/trading could be very interesting. Anyways back to reality...

I akin this to flyfishing...which I know I've mastered ...it's boils down to a matter of reading the water, looking in the right places, understanding the time of year and other influences...and appraoching things systematically with the ability to adapt quickly to changes, plus save guards of course.

I've read the technical trading bible by Mcgee and Murphy (wow to think this stuff has been around since the beginning of time) and as reccomended I have been playing via a simulator for a couple of months...

but as with fishing...what special things should one do when you hook a big one?

In my simulator SNDA shows a 45% return since 11/13/06 I found it using this tool - keeping it simple and watching assending triangles - with a feel for high initial volume and low end volume at the price consolidation apex of the triangle.

I understand compunding, can derive it anyway you want, but think/feel there must be a way, when one realizes they have a big one on, to add more $ to really make a score...any rules, stratagies, guidance on this concept?


-T




General Discussion · how to obtain measures for specific symbol
tulanch
msg #48815
12/28/2006 5:06:18 PM

can I build a filter that would display values for a specific symbol?

for example something like

show stocks where symbol = xyz
display ATR(30) ATR(10) and ATR(5)



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