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Filter Exchange · Bollinger Band Bear Filter
sandjco
msg #151808
4/12/2020 1:45:03 PM

thanks for sharing snappyfrog!

Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151807
modified
4/12/2020 12:02:37 PM

Thanks shils!

Using the experimental shil bands...
SPY busted out on the 6th, so did the QQQs and DIAs



Not surprisingly, SH...



Amazing resilience really watching the rebound and comparing it to the bleak headlines that have dominated the airwaves for the past month.
- 1.8MM cases with 111K mortality. US has the highest cases and death rate at 500K/21K with NY at 180K cases
- Trump escalates battle with WHO and as if on cue...lauches political ad for the upcoming election painting Biden as week and China friendly
- August will apparently be lower than March low (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-revisit-their-coronavirus-crash-low-and-heres-when-to-expect-it-2020-04-09?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo)

Ah ..what to do? I have no crystal ball...all i can do is trade the trend. Right now, it is up. Feels like playing musical chairs or sneaking up a booty call with the ex while her hubby is next room snoring!

Guess the prudent approach would be to book the gains - profit is profit mantra instead of being greedy? Hate the weekends as you never know how Monday will pan out!



Stock Picks and Trading · SPY at apex
sandjco
msg #151796
4/10/2020 2:10:31 PM

what does that mean Mac?

If the bottom of the bol expands downwards while the top of the bol expands upwards...the prevailing trend may continue?






Thank you

Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151795
4/10/2020 1:48:07 PM

Coding help required please...

As shared by shil...
shillllihs
msg #151786 4/9/2020 10:40:30 AM

The way I determine a bear market is if monthly ma2 is over ma21 on SH, IF April doesn't close above we are in a bull market again. Amazing.

So I did..
Fetcher[
chart-length 9 months
symlist(SH)


Set{bear, count(ema(2) > ema(21),1)}
Set{bull, count(ema(2) < ema(21),1)}

add column bull{bull market}
add column bear{bear market}
]



Question:
How do I then use the "bull" or "bear" answer from the above to then code...

IF Bull, then buy whatever is in my watchlist if RSI(2) < 20
IF Bear, then sell whatever is in my watchlist if RSI(2) > 80

Thanks in advance; appreciate the help as always.

Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151782
modified
4/8/2020 11:04:13 PM

1,500,000 cases worldwide; 435,000 at home. The mud slinging has been non stop. Trump says WHO? WHO says no politics! Wuhan re-opens after 80 days? So far the market has bounced....pump and dump? who knows...

IWM calls have more than doubled.



Crazy but great week or so. Most difficult part was buying when things were in the "red".

A stupid mistake or maybe not...forgot I got orders on QQQ Jun 250C on low ball bids that got filled. Either an expense mistake or...


edit:
https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Stock-Picks/A-Newbie-s-Journey/136535/30
four/pthomas215/eman93..if you guys are still around...thank you. Your early posts to me helped out....
four
5,087 posts
msg #136543
- Remove message 6/27/2017 10:53:44 PM

My plan was to "build" the position
--
What happens to your model when we flip it. Same rules... but buy on a percent move up, not down.
Do you wish to buy more of a stock that is going up OR more of a stock that is going down?

Another view point:
There is a famous picture of Paul Tudor Jones relaxing in his office with his feet kicked up. A single sheet of loose-leaf paper is tacked on the wall behind him with the simple phrase written out in black marker: ´┐ŻLosers Average Losers´┐Ż. Famed trader Jesse Livermore warned 100 years ago against averaging losses.

Losers Average Losers: Paul Tudor Jones - Trend Following
https://www.trendfollowing.com/losers_average_losers/

Also, my original strategy relying mainly on RSI2 and the LRS would have lead me to implode as I probably wouldn't have been nimble enough to deal with the whipsaws



Investor Group turning after watching the Trader group having fun?


Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151759
4/6/2020 12:32:51 PM

Why I am interested in Psychology and group think...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5g-virus-conspiracy-theory-fuels-083303568.html?.tsrc=rss

5G...aids in the spread of the virus.

Just like the hoarding of toilet paper...

When will the market reverse its current trend? Psychology (price and volume) will show it albeit like looking at your rear view mirror? Always questioning and wondering as you move forward.

First time SPY broke the T3 bands


Broker thru Trader Group Guppies


So far so good


Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151756
4/6/2020 9:50:47 AM

Minerd, Chief Inv Officer at Gugenheim sees SPY dropping to 1500
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bold-market-calls-abound-minerd-090756647.html

Dimon, CEO JPM sees 2008 like downturn aka bad recession
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-sees-bad-recession-111145837.html

Funny how these jokers come out AFTER the party has already started.

Buffet, meanwhile, raises $4B in yen dominated 40 yr bonds
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-join-global-debt-071735947.html

Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151732
modified
4/5/2020 11:20:12 AM

The 1918 Spanish flu infected about 28% of US's 100M+ population with a 0.6 approx death rate. Higher mortality rates with those under 60; opposite of the Corona virus.

The 2009 Swine flu (H1N1) that apparently originated in Mexico affected 6.7MM globally and a vaccine was found in 8 months (we declare a state of public health emergency in Apr). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic_timeline

SPY on Mar 2008 was 131.97; on Jan 2009 it was 90.44. 45% haircut. Didn't see 131 again till Mar 2011
SPY on Jan 2009 was 90.44; on Mar 2009 was as low as 63.26. Another 40% haircut.

Digging further...Sep 2008 was the tipping point of the Financial crisis (2007 start). Oct 2008 SPY was 115.27 with a low of 76.41 and traded 11.8B shares compared to Jan 2020 SPY was 323.54 to a low of 218.26 (48% drop) on Mar 2020 with highest monthly vol of 5.92B shares in Mar.

Maybe I was too young but I do not remember anything memorable about the H1N1. No doubt social media has been responsible for the heightened awareness of CV19.

WHO estimates up to 500k die from seasonal flu annually (66K from CV19 so far and 16K from Swine flu)

Given our current 300M+ pop and advances in science, how will this translate?

The 2009 H1N1 (not minimizing it) was probably drowned (given lower mortality rate) by the bigger drama of the Financial crisis. The crisis was triggered by Ninja mortgages given to people who normally wouldn't be able to qualify. This shouldn't really be an issue now right?

The current concern...how long will this social distancing last? How long will companies continue to pay employees to work remotely if they continue to see revenues drop (e.g. Airlines who have now laid staff off?). Will lenders implode ala financial crisis? Lenders can usually offer deferred payments. Unless these borrowers lose their jobs...lenders don't have much to worry.

So much uncertainty...Cash is boring and tests your patience but you learn to appreciate it.

IWM Jan 104C for $13.







Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151614
4/1/2020 8:17:43 AM

Using Mar 23 SPY low as a reference point

1st case reported on Jan 10th (China and the 20th US and 29/10 for Spain and Italy). China peaked on Feb 12th close to 15K cases/day. US now close to 25K/day. China's approach was/is pretty much Orwellian (Big data, tracking, lockdown, et al). We have the capability but highly unlikely it would be used here. So...how will this story pan out?

QQQs are a resilient bunch...propped up by GOOG, NFLX, AMZN? Interesting AAPL didn't fall further given their exposure to retail/supply chain in Asia...the more i think i know...the more i really don't know!


assuming i didn't mess up the code...
Fetcher[
apply to symlist(qqq,spy,ewi,ewp,dia,fxi,ewh)

chart-time is 180 days

ADD COLUMN ROC(5,1) {5 day %}
ADD COLUMN ROC(21,1) {1 mo %}
ADD COLUMN ROC(63,1) {3 mo %}
ADD COLUMN ROC(126,1) {6 mo %}
ADD COLUMN ROC(252,1) {1 yr %}
ADD COLUMN ROC(504,1) {2 yr %}
]



Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
sandjco
msg #151582
modified
3/31/2020 8:57:35 AM

Eye catching headlines are now popping up...
- Another "massive decline" is around the corner
- Things will be worse than the "great depression"

While I wasn't born during the depression....I know they didn't have Tinder them days nor did they have any gene sequencing technology nor was the QE the thing. The way I look at it, once we flatten (like China did), we will soon realize that it wasn't the end of the world. Maybe a month or two more of meandering?

Meanwhile, there are now 800,000 cases worldwide; 591K are active and of those 30K are serious. US has twice more cases than China at 164K. NY is getting the brunt of it.

So easy to get sucked into the headlines. Per my previous post...if this was really bad, we should have fallen harder no? TTWO has no business staying this healthy bruh. Looks like the bear was selective in who it was going to thrash. Nothing wrong to nibble around for B&H




What business does this have in getting high?


Guppy view..next levels to hurdle 270 and 285. Looks like the traders are back.


stay safe out there!



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