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Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey
lonehand
msg #136672
7/7/2017 2:37:46 PM

This is just my two cents take it for what it is worth. You are trading stocks and 3xs with too much volatility. Using a 4% stop on a stock that moves 5 to 10 % a day will just get you chopped up. Tsla has an ATR of $13. using a 5 dollar stop is just asking to get stopped out with noise even if you are right with the direction. ( can be used for inter day trading say with 5 min chart) Need to investigate stops using volitility and sizing position on amount you want to risk. Fixed dollar amounts and fixed % may work on low beta stocks, but WILL NOT WORK on these high beta instruments. For your info. SCO is on my do not trade list for good reason. My stops are on the end of too many wicks!!!! (Stops are hunted )

Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey
lonehand
msg #136691
7/10/2017 1:16:52 PM

First as a disclaimer I know nothing and have no clue what is going to happen. I use charts to give me probabilities. they are not predictive. Anything can happen. I am just thinking out loud to give you perspective and is my opinion only. Trying to control your risk is your edge as an independent trader. Having a stop is essential to controlling risk. I have a hard (order in) stop on every trade. But If you are trading extremely volatile etfs or stocks any news can gap the stocks past your stop. Holding overnight or over the weekend your stop is not going to mean much. Holding SCO over the weekend or overnight is extremely risky. In the present state oil can spike 10 % (SCO down 30%) on mild news and 25 to 50 on a large event. Mild event: Nigerian oil workers strike. A trump tweet on oil tariffs. An email from a Saudi prince. Large events: Venezuelan Coup any attack on an oil producing country in the mid east ect ect. This is why I would not hold these instruments overnight. There is an additional roll over decay factor that comes into play.

I Day trade high volume, low spread stock to prevent slippage when I'm stopped out. They have high ATR or beta for movement.
X Materials proxy
RRC Nat gas proxy
Slca Oil proxy
tvix volitility
and any large cap stock with recent range expansion and 2x volume: YUMC, LB, cara



My chart reading on TSLA is that it is a technically broken stock. It has a mean water fall pattern or H+S pattern. developing on daily. I feel it will see 250 before 350

Stock Picks and Trading · Technical Warning signs before NASDAQ/FANG sell-off on 9th June 2017
lonehand
msg #136314
6/12/2017 11:17:34 AM

You will drive yourself crazy trying to attribute a reason "WHY" the market does a certain thing. The only "reason" fang took a beating was more institutions were selling than buying.

Stock Picks and Trading · Technical Warning signs before NASDAQ/FANG sell-off on 9th June 2017
lonehand
msg #136318
6/12/2017 12:30:00 PM

Based purely on chart technical analysis the only thing that could of warned of a possible breakdown in the qqqs was a trend line break that happened inter day. Which would not help a person on the daily. When an instrument is at all time highs and support is too far away a volatility stop should be considered. AAPL specifically had a possible double top pattern (or rectangle break). Of coarse AAPL has invalidated numerous double top patterns on this current run and one would be a fool to use the pattern as an entry signal, but as a risk tool it could be useful. The pivot low on june 1st could be used as a stop or the low on may 17. On weekly chart AAPL has minor support right here at 144ish and major support at 132 ish.

Stock Picks and Trading · Technical Warning signs before NASDAQ/FANG sell-off on 9th June 2017
lonehand
msg #136333
6/13/2017 11:31:17 AM

LOL, don't usually associate a dead cat bounce on stocks that are up 20% ytd, How about a live cat bounce!


Stock Picks and Trading · Technical Warning signs before NASDAQ/FANG sell-off on 9th June 2017
lonehand
msg #136342
6/13/2017 3:55:05 PM

johnpaulca

No dead-cat bounce. AMZN back to $1000
***************************************************************
when a stock is up trending it's call a pullback not a dead cat bounce. Fang is in a downward trend this is a dead cat bounce or the the start of a new up trend.

Not trying to be persnickety or over thinking, but how do you define a trend and what constitutes a new trend.In my opinion Amazon is still in an uptrend (No close below major support). Do you define the end of a trend as a break in the trend line on the daily. If so do not understand how a new down trend started unless using a shorter time frame.

Stock Picks and Trading · Technical Warning signs before NASDAQ/FANG sell-off on 9th June 2017
lonehand
msg #136346
6/13/2017 4:28:18 PM

karennma

Trading would be more fun if you put some emotion into it. :)

Stock Picks and Trading · Technical Warning signs before NASDAQ/FANG sell-off on 9th June 2017
lonehand
msg #136351
modified
6/13/2017 7:42:34 PM





There is different ways to look at trend lines top chart shows trend broken, bottom chart trend is an up channel which would not be invalidated until a close outside the bottom trend line. Neither is a prediction of where amzn price is going. NOBODY KNOWS. It can give you structure for a trade and possible uncle points. Personally I don't use trendlines except on tight flags on a 5 min chart. They always look more obvious after the fact. If someone does use them I am interested in what your methodological is?
PS I know that the TL are drawn inexactly ,but close approximation.

Stock Picks and Trading · Technical Warning signs before NASDAQ/FANG sell-off on 9th June 2017
lonehand
msg #136370
6/14/2017 11:37:56 AM


Yep the real fang is a choppy mess. LOL. I think it is great that JP has insulated himself from all the BS. I try to not follow that business news stupidity, but obviously I can take it to a new level.

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