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Filter Exchange · 100% Win Rate, 545% ROI, 54 trades?
elroz
msg #46744
modified
9/4/2006 2:08:54 PM

- I have little respect for someone who would put up such a filter and not actually say what it is. If you never had any intention at showing us what the filter was, then you should have never put up the results in the first place.

TO EVERYONE ELSE - Although these results look promising, this is just another example of numbers looking good on paper, but unrealistic in real life situations. For one to get these results, you would need no stop loss, moderate profit stop, and the ability to hold a position for a long time (a lot of capital). To me, it makes no sense in giving a stock a 90% stop loss and only a 10% profit stop, but that's how these filters work (which makes them pretty much useless).

Please know that I don't use any of the filters involved, but by posting, I do three things. One, it shows pretty much the same results as results showed (actually using the same time period, 2 of the 3 show better results ON PAPER!! So everyone will now know how to get these unbelievable results ON PAPER!! I believe this is probably the filter used and just changed some parameters (price, time held, etc). If not, then there are other filters able to produce such unrealistic results.

Second, if anyone wishes to test them, I do hope you can find a way to make them work. I have been very successful taking others ideas from these postings, and this could be seen as a way of giving back. I highly doubt anyone would post an amazing filter they discovered, and I do not expect anyone to. If it makes you money, keep it to yourself.

Third, being bored last night, I spent a few hours figuring this out. Seeing how unrealistic it would be to use, and putting in all that time, it's only rewarding if I can share this info. After all, if I ever decided to post one of my results, I would defiantly include the actual filter as well.

Below are three filters, pretty much the same. You can change the exchange, price, volume, or whatever you want. The secrete to these results are the time given, and the profit stop.

For all of the filters below, use the following parameters. . .

The positions are all LONG positions

Stop loss - 0
Profit Stop - 10
Trailing Stop Loss - 0
Minimum days to hold - 0
Maximum days to hold - 300

No special entries or exits or anything else. To make it interesting, use the same dates used 06/07/04 - 06/07/06

The 3 Filters . . . . .

(1)
low reached a new 52 week low
and rsi(2) < 5
and weekly rsi(2) < 10
and market is nasdaq 100

(2)
low reached a new 52 week low
and rsi(2) < 1
and weekly rsi(2) < 10
and market is nasdaq

(3)
low reached a new 52 week low
and rsi(2) < 1
and weekly rsi(2) < 10
and market is nasdaq
and price is below 1

They are pretty much all the same. Have fun back testing them, and please, if you're going to post results, show some class and provide the filter as well.

I wish you all the luck with these.

-elroz




Backtesting Support · back testing problem with example
elroz
msg #46626
8/27/2006 10:02:06 PM

It seems others as well as myself are having problems with back testing, and I can understand they don't want to show their filters, they just want it fixed (as do I) so here is a fine example of a major problem I see with the back testing. It seems that when you change a requirement on a filter, it provides completely different results.

STOCKFETCHER SUPPORT - please look at the following filter below. (To others, please know this is a filter I had pulled off an old post and I am using as an example. Although it looks promising, it is not a filter I currently use and I have no knowledge of how to trade it.)

historical volatility(60,1) is greater than 10
rsi(2) below 2
Weekly RSI(2) below 10
and roc(1) one day ago < -3%
and roc(1) < -6%
and average volume(10) is above 500000
and close above 15
and not nasdaq
and not otcbb


Here's how the first test went . .

I used a 3% stop loss
time frame was YTD
0 day hold (buy at the open, sell next day open)
no special exit parameters or profit stops

Now, retest it with a 5% stop loss keeping everything else the same.

You will get a completely different result. If anything I should be stopped out of more of the 3% test than the 5% test. It also seems that with the 5% stop loss, my trades are not sold on the T+1 open. Some trades are still open from July.

Going forward, I will be retesting all of my current filters and I will report all of the problems I have with them. I do encourage others to post their problems with examples as well, so these issues can finally be resolved.

Thank You


Backtesting Support · back testing problem with example
elroz
msg #46639
8/28/2006 9:41:07 PM

Just in case the e-mail was not received.

test a - 3%
test a - 5%


Backtesting Support · back testing problem with example
elroz
msg #46681
8/30/2006 1:10:02 PM

Thank You


General Discussion · Backtesting on other sites
elroz
msg #43360
4/30/2006 1:30:07 AM

Does anyone use a different site to backtest? Lately, I have been having problems using the Stockfetcher Backtest, and I am starting to doubt it's accuracy.

I am looking for a program which is reliable, and of course, not to expensive. I do appreciate any feedback. Thanks


General Discussion · Backtesting on other sites
elroz
msg #43415
5/2/2006 11:15:26 AM

Thank You both.


General Discussion · Backtesting question
elroz
msg #42612
3/28/2006 7:40:55 PM

Is there a way to backtest one specific stock with certain parameters over a certain period of time. For example I want to see what happens everytime EMA(10) crossed above EMA(30) for the stock IBM over the last 1 year. Can this be done??


General Discussion · Detective Work VII
elroz
msg #42788
modified
4/6/2006 9:38:42 PM

Rumpled One,

Are you looking for what company this is?? If so, check out this web site.

http://onlypunjab.com/fullstory2k5-insight-news-status-19-newsID-76787.html

symbol - IPHN.PK




General Discussion · Detective Work VIII
elroz
msg #43053
4/19/2006 12:51:58 AM

Rumpled One;

The company is Exelixis (EXEL). Check out this article published in 2005.

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05051007.htm




General Discussion · Detective Work XI
elroz
msg #43794
modified
5/16/2006 11:06:23 PM

I needed one of these tonight.

The company seems to be RGUS. Check out the following website. http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-35077.htm. Scrool down to around April 19th. Yahoo info on the company seems to talk about these types of engines.

But be careful, I also found this site . . http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/04/new_toroidal_in.html

which linked me to this site. . . http://www.angellabsllc.com/

Read the "WARNING ABOUT INVESTMENT OFFERS" on the upper right hand side of the Angel Labs page. There could be two different products. I know nothing about engines, but it's best to look through everything.

Good luck.




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