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Filter Exchange · Confirmation for DI crosses
alichambers
msg #43709
5/14/2006 4:40:12 PM

Hi,

I've been looking at using DI(4) crosses for buy and sell signals. This seems to work well in a trending market, but when the market moves sideways it produces an amount of whipsaws.

Could anyone help with a second indicator that would help confirmation of the trending market and ignore some of the whipsaws - or suggest otherwise.

I'd REALLY appreciate this - I've been going round and round in circles for ages!

Thanks,
Alex


Filter Exchange · Here's what will really make you money!!
alichambers
msg #43704
5/14/2006 3:22:12 PM

Hi,

This RSI2 and DMA28-14 looks interesting. Sorry for being so basic, but would you be able to explain how to use them. I've been searching around the forum and have got a little confused.

Thanks,
Alex



General Discussion · what Industries are moving up?
alichambers
msg #43443
5/3/2006 10:18:43 AM

I don't know of a SF filter, but this site is good for industry movement:

http://www2.barchart.com/secmoves.asp?what=three_month

Alex


Filter Exchange · THE ONLY DMI SYSTEM THAT WORKS!
alichambers
msg #43378
5/1/2006 8:29:49 AM

I find DMI crossvers very sensitive to the market.

I used to use a simple double-MA crossover to determine entry points. I now use a DMI crossover. It seems to predict a movement earlier than MA.

For example, in the EOD forex I have found DMI(12) crossovers to yield good positions.

Alex


General Discussion · anyone successfully trade Forex?
alichambers
msg #43368
4/30/2006 5:31:35 PM

Interesting and thanks.

I'm developing an EOD forex system. When it's backtested I'll post it up.

Alex


General Discussion · The penny dropped
alichambers
msg #43367
4/30/2006 5:29:59 PM

My system isn't fully developed yet. And besides it's on the forex not stocks. However, when it is developed and fully backtested I shall keep you all posted.

I created this post not to enlighten you all with another filter. There's already enough of these here - some seem very credible indeed.

My post was designed to explain a fundamental shift in thinking I had - from "gambling" and hoping to sure fire regular profits from a backtested system.

If you are interested in the monitoring of 50 stocks or so I mentioned, I can post a link to a system I have bought from the full time trader who helped me greatly in this mindset shift. His system is not rocket science but is definately credible. He uses DMI signals and MA on his watch list of stocks. I highly recommend his system - especially for the support he provides.

I myself am developing a variant of the system. I love tinkering and have the entrepreneurial bug - but that's just me.

Alex


General Discussion · anyone successfully trade Forex?
alichambers
msg #43298
4/29/2006 6:38:45 AM

TheRumpledOne: Thanks

I use spread betting, and this is betting. I don't buy the underlying Forex, but place a bet as to which direction the currency will move. It's only available in the UK and is 100% TAX FREE (it's classed as gambling)! You can also spread bet on stocks which meet the following criterea:

- UK: Market Cap > 50m
- US: Market Cap > $1b

It's much more leveraged than the currency itself, so I prefer it.

How do you use Fib levels - wait for a retracement to a fib level then buy as the price bounces off?

And do you have any details of the Tunnel Method with an ema(34) filter?

Alex



General Discussion · The penny dropped
alichambers
msg #43266
4/28/2006 10:56:50 AM

My system is EOD. I don't believe in spending all day glued to a computer screen day trading. Life is too short. And as Jesse Livermore so wisely said:

"...the big money is made in the big moves, not the small fluctuations..."

For 50-100 stocks it works like this:

1. Create a watchlist of stocks that fit your system (ie. have been backtested)
2. Each day update your prices in your charting software and look for entry signals/exit signals
3. Update your orders accordingly

To select new stocks, you need to know your system and choose accordingly. For example, if you look for double moving-average crossovers you want stocks that trend well, and with minimal sideways movement (to avoid periods of whipsawing).

So you might use SF to find stocks that each year have a high 2* the low. Just a start. Then backtest each stock.

Your entry and exit points depend on your system - fibonacci, MA, inside bar, channel breakouts, whatever.

If anyone is interested in looking at stock systems, give me an email at:

dralexchambers[at]yahoo[dot]com

Cheers,
Alex




General Discussion · The penny dropped
alichambers
msg #43261
4/28/2006 6:48:54 AM

Gents (and ladies?),

Then penny dropped with trading with me the other day. I thought I'd let you all know.

When I first started out I was in the mindset of looking for the "Holy Grail" - ie. finding a filter that would regularly perform well. Unfortunately I didn't find it - and I was continuing to lose money.

Luckily, I spoke with a full time trader and he gave me some great advice. The trick is to make steady profits with a tried and tested system, especially one that can be BACKTESTED.

This is the key. Find a financial instrument (stocks, forex, whatever) and select a number of items to "watch". Backtest your strategy on each of those items, and if those items produce sure wins over a period of time, stick with them. You'll also be able to get a feel for cashflow - ie. when you're in profit and out. Randomly scanning the market for "new untested" items (eg- stocks) is like gambling - it may work, but then it may not. And remember - in gambling, the house always wins in the long run.

So I repeat ... BACKTEST is the key.

This will take a lot of stress out of the trading. If things go bad (eg- whipsaws), just sit tight AND DON'T ALTER YOUR STRATEGY. You know it will come good in the end if you've run a decent backtest.

I've moved over to Forex for the time being (see my other post) ... but my full time trader friend has a list of 50-100 stocks he watches daily for his entry points.

Of course, unpredictable things can happen. But a decent backtest will allow for these.

I hope this helps,
Alex



General Discussion · anyone successfully trade Forex?
alichambers
msg #43260
4/28/2006 6:34:14 AM

I agree - Forex is well behaved. I've been making the transition from stocks to Forex for the following reasons:

- It trends well
- Low margin requirements
- Very liquid
- Difficult to be manipulated
- It's highly leveraged
- Stocks are prone to unpredictable movements - up and down. Good if you catch them, not so good if not

I live in the UK and the spread betting margin for forex is low. For example, one point of gain in GBP:USD is 0.0001! Betting 3 per point of movement (conservative; you can bet up to 99) can yield some nice returns.

However, this is the main reason I have gone into Forex:

YOU CAN BACKTEST YOUR STRATEGY
(sorry for shouting there)

The penny dropped recently. Instead of randomly picking stocks that I "thought" may go up or down, I can now run a utility I have written on the Forex to buy and sell according to my strategy and see how much money I make over a period of time. This eliminates a lot of guesswork from the game. If a currency doesn't yield profitable results over 5-10 years, THEN I DITCH IT. Sure - I lose a bit during whipsaws, but I can cut those down with stop losses.

I'm working on a simple moving average entry/exit strategy. Initial tests show a very nice gain. And I'm always 100% in the market - either long or short, depending on the moving average signals.

I'll keep ya'll posted.

Alex

PS- TheRumpledOne: Which fib levels do you use?


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