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Filter Exchange · New Darvas Box...
JoeGrossinger
msg #29472
10/25/2003 1:47:31 AM

Well, I see nothing exciting about this filter.
Very few hits, and not much of a return on investment on the few days when there is a hit.
I'm not sure if this filter actually follows Darvas rules but in any case I also read the book and was not impressed with it either.
For a supposed miraculous money making method, very few traders actually use it.
There are a few Darvas method websites for folks interested in that kind of thing but none of them are setting the world on fire with the method.
I think that is most telling, because folks flock to the current money machines like bees to honey.
Neither the Darvas sites touting Darvas picks nor this filter can replace good old TA.
As a matter of fact, there are probaly a dozen filters in this forum alone that outperform the Darvas Box filter.
As far as I can see its much todo over nothing.
A month from now it won't even be discussed here.



Filter Exchange · Astounding Filter!!
JoeGrossinger
msg #29458
10/24/2003 1:25:03 PM

Some folks complained about this filter but I don't see them mentioning performance.

Do a 5 day offset for today 10-24 and then click on the last field, sorting by price.

Then get a towel to catch the drool.

Don't forget to check in on Koliga.com for great money making tips.


General Discussion · Just a Heads Up
JoeGrossinger
msg #29457
10/24/2003 12:42:16 PM

I posted the following 5 days ago and its worth reading again.

10/19/2003 1:54:22 PM

Of course stocks can always do the surprising move, but NVDA is a dog from my point of view. There is nothing there to recommend it.
One of the worst things a trader can do is anticipate a reversal. It's like predicting the end of the world.
This stock only knows one direction. DOWN.
It could and probably will do a short bounce from these levels because its oversold, but that is about it. OVERSOLD does not indicate more buyers than sellers, oversold, where the stock just keeps diving has nothing to recommend it. This stock tried to break out of a double bottom and failed, heading lower.
So the best you can hope for is a triple bottom formation in about a month or so.
The chart starts at the upper left and without break or letup goes to the bottom right. I don't need any indicators to tell me this stock only knows one direction. DOWN. It's sorry performance during a very bullish phase of the market is another indicator. It's not testing anything but new lows and most likely will revisit the $15.70 area again. From there it might struggle up to the $17.50 for another test. That is only a 11% climb and could take another month to complete.
It's a snorer. The Bollinger Bands have not come together, which means either the stock will continue to go down or it will take some time to base before making a substantial move.
It just recently fell below the 200 day average, the 50 day average is falling like a rock and the 20 day likes to stay below the 50 day. This is a bearish chart.
The weekly chart shows a real nice stair step to hell.

============================================================================
There is more blood than money in trying to catch falling knives.
NVDA has not gone through the bottoming process and should be avoided.
I would not be surprised to see it test the 15.70 - 16.00 area before heading up.



Filter Exchange · New Darvas Box...
JoeGrossinger
msg #29456
10/24/2003 12:37:34 PM

The filter does not blow up my skirt any thats for sure.
Either there is something wrong with it or the DARVAS box is overrated.
As it is any number of filters already posted outperform this one 10-1


Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
JoeGrossinger
msg #29455
10/24/2003 12:35:06 PM

SPHC should have been added instead of doing a double entry on DFCT.
All 3 should be great money makers this week.


Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
JoeGrossinger
msg #29454
10/24/2003 12:33:21 PM

Folks are free to throw their money away if they want to in trying to catch falling knives. No problem for me.

I prefer stocks that show some sign of life and will make me money.
DFCT was kicked out by my MOAF filer along with EEC and DFCT.
The 3 should prove to be excellent money makers this coming week.

www.koliga.com


Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
JoeGrossinger
msg #29426
10/23/2003 12:03:44 AM

Yeah, right. Whatever.


Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
JoeGrossinger
msg #29420
10/22/2003 4:05:27 PM

I never said Paper Trading is the exact same thing as Money Trading.

I answered the statement that paper trading "is vastly different" from money trading. It is not vastly different.

I don't buy the partial fills and all that. I never have a problem with that.
Probably not in 99% of my trades do I have a problem with fills.
I don't buy stocks where only a very few shares are traded. I never deal in those.
When I place a buy I place it a bit above the last traded price because I want the stock and don't want to have to chase it. So I get my orders filled.
When I sell, I place my order the same way. A bit lower from the last trade because I want out and an I want out now.

So to me that is just not a very good argument vs the fact that I paper trade to try new ideas and new ways of trading. I may not be 100% in the ball park but paper trading is at least 90% like real trading.
Nobody ever tries to claim that the military training is like a real war. However that does not keep them from spending billions on training. It's the training that makes the difference.
It is the same with tennis, boxing and everything else. Practice makes perfect.
I have never seen a boxer get into the ring without training, and nobody can say sparring is the same thing as a million dollar fight.

I state over and over that you have to paper trade like you actually trade.
That precludes taking flyers on junk that you would never buy in real life.
It means you must start with a set amount of money, adding and subtracting just like it happens in real life. You must select your stocks just as if you were going to buy it with real bucks. Must keep your system as realistic as possible.

Train like you trade and trade like you train. That works!

The biggest difference is EMOTION. That is what breaks most traders and that is precluded in paper trading. However, knowing this traders must do everything they can to preclude it from their real trades as well.
The only way I know how to do that is with tested systems.
I don't test with my money. Not ever.

The biggest difference between proper paper trading and money trading is emotion.
It's hard to factor out fear and greed when dealing with real money.
However, it is precisely fear and greed that cause folks to lose money and that is precisely why I insist on sytematic trading instead of of-the-cuff trading.




Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
JoeGrossinger
msg #29406
10/22/2003 11:29:26 AM

That is why there is a vast difference between paper trading and actual trading.

That statement makes absolutely no sense unless you consider back dating SF as paper trading.

IF you paperTRADE then you buy on paper JUST AS IF YOU PAID FOR THE STOCK. That is paper trading. I don't know how you do it, but I paper trade just as if I were actually buying and selling.
Offsetting the date on SF is NOT backtesting.



Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
JoeGrossinger
msg #29405
10/22/2003 9:49:10 AM

Well, first of all it's not 90.65%
You simply added all 8 hits and then say "UP 90.65%", which is incorrect.
If you were smart and bought all of the picks, held them for a week you would have made 11.33% not 90.65% since you have to divide the total from all 8 hits by those 8 hits. Filters will give a different result every day that you run them of course. It all depends. Do you have enoug money to buy all the hits, every day? If not, then you have to look at the losers vs the winners and calculate those odds as well.
If you only bought 1 stock then your odds were 50-50 that you will have made less than 2% for the week. That is why I always recommend at least 3, preferably 5 stocks be purchased in order to spread your risk.
That is also why my paper trades on Koliga.com vary substantially from what it looks like you might get by just off setting the date when you run the filter.



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