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General Discussion · Just a Heads Up
msg #29583
10/30/2003 10:24:20 PM

Thats about +8% on NVDA. Not bad considering it was called 'the chart from hell'.
Buying again at $18.02

Waste of time and money. There are so many, much better and faster moving stocks out there. Even if you broke even you lost in time and momentum.
Never saw any attraction and its still liable to go way south at any time.
SONS did better but not by much.

Filter Exchange · the best 0f the mm manipulation
msg #29549
10/29/2003 10:49:31 AM

Mika, my point is that I don't think one should trust any filter that is mostly red on a 5 day offset, nor is it sound trading strategy to hop on a stock that is going down.

I don't trust any filter past 5 days because it is after all, only a scanning device with no brains and should in my view only be used for the very short term.

I realize results will change day by day, and that a filter that is all red today may be all green tomorrow. I just question the need to post a filter that back tests mostly red at the time of posting. I mean, right there you know you have a questionable product and in all likelyhood also have a questionable trading strategy.

Not to pick on you because I have posted some really pretty 90% green 5 day back tests only to have them turn mostly red later on.
Still, I think a filter ought to backtest 5 days with 90% green at the time of posting.

All of which leads me to believe the simple filters do best.
Those filters that scan for:
Oversold situations
Overbought situations if you like to short
New high situations since they tend to keep on running

I keep toying with MACD crossovers and BB breakouts but they have always shown themselves to be totally unreliable over time.

Yes, most stocks that go up show either a BB breakout or a MACD crossover or both, but what you don't see (until you run the filters for a while) are all the false signals that are generated.

What is extremely useful and hard to find are filters that are mostly or all green on a 3 day offset and do that on a consistent basis.
That is what I am concentrating on now. Lots of green on 3.

Momentum trading is great but it also means that you have to physically look at hundreds of charts a day in order to catch a stock at the bottom or top of the current wave. I don't think filters can actually catch that.

Filter Exchange · the best 0f the mm manipulation
msg #29536
10/28/2003 9:53:53 PM

Am I missing something or are all of these filters mostly RED?

set{vol%, volume/average volume(10)}
and vol% is below 0.6
set{ae5, ema(5)/atr(5)}
and ae5 is between 5 and 15
and COG(9) is below -0.1
and lrs(45) is above 0
and average volume(45) is above 90000
and low is between 0.7 and 4.7
and Exchange is Nasdaq
and date offset is 5

The other filter
set{vol%, volume/average volume(10)}show stocks where average volume(10) above 20000 and add column vol% and draw vol% and close below 0.55 and vol% below 0.20 and rsi(2) below 5
and date offset is 5

Filter Exchange · Looking for a good momentum screen ...
msg #29511
10/27/2003 5:34:33 PM

P.S. Joe, your post suggest me a good idea. Yes I want some red in the 5 day offset for my entry point. I don't buy at the top. But why wait after red to buy the stock when it is a good time to go short for a day or 2? I have to study this opportunity but I don't know how to manage short signal yet.

It would seem to me that 2 separate scans would best serve your need.
Since momentum stocks are basically sinewaves, in that they undulate up and down fairly regularly, I would want the buy signal to come at or near the bottom and the go short signal at or near the top of the wave.
Hell, at this point I would just settle for a scanner that more or less hits on stocks with these sine wave like charts.

General Discussion · Just a Heads Up
msg #29492
10/26/2003 10:08:38 AM

I think it would be extremely difficult to buy anything after taking a 60% haircut. Dealing in dogs like LOOK, SONS and NVDA is asking for a tough living.
You guys are shorting I guess?

Filter Exchange · Looking for a good momentum screen ...
msg #29491
10/26/2003 9:54:52 AM

I don't understand these filters. On a 5 day offset they all get about as many red as black. I don't know whether to go long or short on these picks.

Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
msg #29477
10/25/2003 6:15:01 AM

BJ, you don't even have access! It's only for a select few.


Filter Exchange · WILDCARD FILTER!
msg #29476
10/25/2003 6:13:31 AM

These are all great filters but you should have marked them "for shorting only"

Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could
msg #29474
10/25/2003 2:44:40 AM

I wrote a filter once that tried to catch stocks like SIRI where they fell off the upper Bollinger Band and headed south. The theory was that the stocks would hold at the 20DMA and then bounce back up. Turns out though that most went on down to the lower band just as John Bollinger constantly preaches.
My proprietary filter MOAF catches these falling stocks but also looks for positive signs of recovery. Much less blood, much more money and satisfaction.
The middle of the Bollinger Band is not much of a place to bet your money.

A better way is to look at a fallen stock and measure how much it rose from the most recent bottom to the most recent top. More times than not the stock will give up 50% of the gains and then commence to go up again.

General Discussion · Just a Heads Up
msg #29473
10/25/2003 2:20:23 AM

The NASDAQ chart will probably go to 1820, or to the bottom of the Bollinger Band. It swings from one band to the other fairly frequently. If it holds there and goes up, there should be no problems. If the market goes below 1800 then we could be in for a rough time.

When the market is red - stay in bed

Sound advice unless you like bucking the odds and swimming upstream.

The DOW Industrials will probably end up at 9350-9400.

Most of the time you don't need any software or indicators to see where the market or a stock is going. Unless there is an oversold indication that is very strong, stay away from charts that point downward. Simple as that.
If you like buying the oversold stocks that is OK too but just keep in mind that the only absolute bottom for any stock is a price of 0.00
Go with your eyeballs and guts and use the indicator for confirmation.
As in the case with LOOK, NVDA, UTSI and many others, avoid them because the price just keeps going down. Why bother with these when there are so many others that are going up or are grossly oversold or that make a nice sine wave?
Look at FLEX or CVC or CSCO for some very interesting plays on stocks that MOVE and make money.

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