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General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29658
11/5/2003 4:51:58 PM

I should add that I only play the dead cat bounce once with the stocks that get killed. I don't play it again on that same stock. Ever. MCWEQ is back to .06 but I'm not going to touch it because the market has had time to look at it and it can actually do down more now. That play is a one-shot-per-stock play for me.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29657
11/5/2003 4:47:14 PM

Why do you take every rebuttal personally?
I simply outlined the different approaches to TA that you and I so very obviously take.
I maintain there is no precision and there is no way to accurately predict day to day moves of the stocks or markets.
I used a couple of stocks where we already went over this territory in some detail and it's not my fault your analyis on them proved wrong.
What I was trying to tell you is that DCUT can go down some more and it won't affect my view unless and until the major indicators go against me. As long as DCUT does not close below .085, as long as the MACD is positive and as long as the general trend is up, I consider the uptrend to be in place.
That is the same analysis that caused me to question you on LOOK and NVDA and to tell you the truth, I am right far more often than not because I take a longer view and don't pay any attention to support and resistance except to know why a stock may sputter before it moves on. Stocks cut through moving averages and stupport or resistance all the time. They are only temporary resting places. It's the aggregate of major trend signals that I go by.
If a 20/50 moving average crossing had any major signifance one could write a filter for that and get rich. The truth is that it's not all that significant.
Nor is the closing above or below the 20 day moving average. No filter that looks for that works in either direction.
So, I ignore the minor stuff in order to not get tossed off the hoss and stay with the major trend. If it turns sour then I'm gone.

The exception is stocks like MCWEQ where I bought and sold in the same hour yesterday. That is a beaten down dog that chances favored a dead cat bounce and I profited from it using what Avery calls money management and I call snatch and drop speculating. I don't even bother to do a chart analyis on these. I just buy the ones that are down 35% or more from yesterday and dump them when I'm in the money and move on.

Different approaches to different stocks. Not all situations call for the same approach anymore than the same line works for all girls nor the same kind of driving technique works for all cars and bikes.

I only really know these two methods where I either go with the major trend when a stock signals a major trend reversal, as in the case of DCUT or I go for a dead cat bounce when a stock is taken out and shot.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29655
11/5/2003 4:08:11 PM

DCUT does have some technicals in it's favor but the big negative is that the 25 & 50 DMAs are in such a steep decline and are stiff resistance.
Notice that DCUT has bounced down the last 2 days from the 25 DMA confirming it as resistance.


I guess that explains why stocks never move up in a straight line and hardly ever move down in a straight line.

For every buyer there is a seller and that means two folks see the same facts in totally different ways.
The things you look at never come to my mind. I ignore them because a stock always has to climb a wall of worry and on the way down it always has to overcome optimism and hope.
The only things I look at are the major moves and trends. What happens tomorrow no one can say and I won't try to predict day-to-day moves.
I only worry about major trends and signals.
In the case of DCUT, the double bottom is being formed, the MACD is positive and the trendline is intact even with today's drop.
Worst case a cup and handle is forming and best case the W will be completed this week.
Where the stock will be tomorrow is impossible to tell. I know it's going up and that is what I go by.
Just as in the case of LOOK, NVDA and some others, the day-to-day is impossible to tell but the trend is easy enough to spot.

General Discussion · Trading Tactics 101
msg #29636
11/4/2003 1:28:50 PM

MOAF is my own filter. No, I don't publish filters but there are plenty of good ones in the Filter Exchange area.

General Discussion · Trading Tactics 101
msg #29634
11/4/2003 11:03:41 AM

Normally I use MOAF to give me a good list of prospects and work from that list.
I wait for a positive 5/10 crossover on the 60 minute chart and then make my buy. This system works fairly well IF you are careful in your screening using the daily chart. This is what got me into DCUT. The W (double bottom) is nearly complete now and DCUT is moving by 10% per day. Not bad.

However, I still had a couple of bucks left over so I bought MCEQ at .06 this morning and sold it at .07 less than an hour later for a tidy 16% profit.

Buying a stock that is down 30% or more on the 60 minute chart is a bit risky but can be very rewarding.

I passed on AVGC at .11 because I am comitted past my eyeballs with DCUT but that also gave a great 9% return had I sold at .12 and then gone fishing.

Basically, that is how I do it.
I use MOAF to point me to the movers and shakers and then will go either way in my buys. I will buy a beaten down dog that fell another 35%+ on the 60 minute chart early in the morning or I will go with the 5/10 Xover if the daily chart looks good.
I never see much reason to get myself into a sweat and make only a few trades a week.

I generally sell when the RSI(2) AND the RSI(5) are both in the +75 - +85 area for those stocks that I buy using the Xover, but for the beaten down dogs I will bail anytime, especially once it makes me 10% or more.

I seldom trade a stock like DCUT but that technique of selling on strength and then buying the pullback can really multiply your holdings. If I'm lucky I find one of those trades a week and jump on it. DCUT is getting close now.

General Discussion · PTRS - an orgasmic collapse?
msg #29620
11/3/2003 7:46:41 AM

PTRS closed at .22 - down 25.42% for the day and down 42.11% for the week.
This stock has crashed by every definition of that concept but I am not buying at this point. I do find this chart interesting because:

1. Down volume for Friday was not a record high even though the close was a record low.

2. Weekly RSI(2) is at 3.5 - nimble traders can profit from this.

3. On the daily chart RSI(5) has NOT set a record low even though the price has but the RSI(14) did set a new low.

This stock comes with a mixed bag of indicators that is just too fresh for me to take the plunge. I will watch this stock and may take interest later as the bottom formation takes shape IF it takes shape. Sometimes stocks make a V and those are hard to catch. I generally pass on Vs because I tend to err on the side of caution.
I do believe nimble traders can make a buck or two this week trading PTRS.
I will keep an eye on it and see how it develops.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29619
11/3/2003 7:19:28 AM

1. Avery, thanks for reading and taking interest in my post.

2. If we are not going to argue, then what's the point?

Just kidding. You raise an interesting point in mentioning that all is not rosie with DCUT and that there are plenty of negative views regarding this stock. Folks need to balance all that in their heads before taking the plunge.
Indeed, trading is a lonely undertaking because in the final analysis it comes down to the lone trader deciding when to pull the trigger and with how much.
In my case I have broken all of my rules and gone full bore plus.

Here is one interesting post I just ran accross:

I like this person's approach because he documents his argument with charts.
It also illustrates a totally different approach from mine because I inherently do not trust OBV because of Joe Granville's fall from glory due to over-hyping of OBV. That post is about a week old now, but his remarks regarding the weekly MACD are right on target. That indicator has given a positive crossing on the daily chart since then.
I take interest in this post also because of yours regarding MM dealings and am wondering if OBV might be used as a confirming indicator that also sheds a bit of light in the manipulation of OTC BB stocks.
Certainly I am not the only trader that has noted the double bottom of DCUT is about 3/4 finished.
That is not to say this is a conclusive signal to buy but I do rely very heavy on double bottoms and double tops. Generally the worst that happens is a stock may put in a triple bottom which usually results in a meteoric price rise shortly afterwards.
So for me the risk/reward ratio is totally in my favor in charts like this.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29616
11/3/2003 12:12:49 AM

A nimble trader can multiply his or her gains several times by trading the stocks highs and pullbacks. It's also risky in that you can miss the train but initially the downside risk is low but the risk of missing the run away remains fairly high. I use RSI(5) and RSI(2) in tandem to try and pinpoint exit points but I can show tons of charts where a stock just keeps on roaring upwards even though RSI 15, 5 and 2 may be in the 90s. Nothing is sure in this game.
I don't know squat about mm to tell you the truth. I have concentrated on the charts, trying to stay with the major moves, staying alert to funny stuff reflected in the RSI, MACD and Bollinger bands. At times that causes me to bail prematurely, which is probably what the MM are working towards.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29612
11/2/2003 9:00:21 PM

DCUT is one of those stocks that will make you rich if you are willing to take some risk.

All of what I am going to write assumes that it will do as most stocks in this situation also do. Nothing new is postulated and I am simply playing the odds.

DCUT looks to me like it is getting ready to finish the bottoming formation and will complete the W when it reaches .135 or .14
At that point a lot of TA folks are going to realize this stock could really move and will jump aboard.

This illustrates one of the problems all chartists face and why there most certainly and most possitively is NO PRECISION to TA.
It's the willingness on the part of some traders to anticipate the next leg be it up or down that makes any hopes of precision fruitless, but also at the same time rewards those that can see it coming and are aboard before it happens.
That is the essence of stock analysis. Filling in the foggy areas.
The fact that DCUT right now is in the process of completing a W on the daily chart is indicative of a bottoming process that is about to be finished.
You can buy now (as I did at .08 or wait until it reaches the .14 area to be a little safer.
I bought a tractor-trailor load of this stock at .08 and sold it at .12 all of which I reinvested at .08 again in order to maximize the return.
The risk is there alright, but the fact that it's selling near the volume bars and the fact that it's finishing the bottoming process makes DCUT highly attractive. I caught this with my filter MOAF and am going to ride it to at least .22
This is the kind of stock to bet the farm on. The likelyhood of DCUT taking a 60% haircut is almost nil, while the upside is wide open.

I don't go for obscure and obtuse triangle interpretations and testing theories. If a stock is testing it's not going up and I have no use for them.
I want stocks that either do a W at the bottom or a M at the top when I want to go short. Go for the obvious and let other folks pay for the obuse.

W or double bottoms are great for those that can see them early because you can load up and unload at profit a couple of times before the stock actually begins the long climb towards the upper right corner of the chart.

General Discussion · Just a Heads Up
msg #29586
10/31/2003 4:43:08 AM

NVDA overbought on 5 min. chart stochastics -xover and breaking short term trendline support. Selling at break even.

That was your post, was it not?
I did not see anything about a 8% gain, a number that would have required perfect precision in buying and selling to obtain.

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