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General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29737
11/7/2003 8:15:26 PM

Why am I so hostile?
Because YOU posted the following, setting yourself up as some superior do-goody or whatever without me ever having addressed you in any way or invited you into the conversation.

"getting hot down there again
i knew it wouldnt last long"

What makes you think you can post stuff like that and then not get a reply?
Why would you even post that unless you wanted somebody to lock and load?

If you don't want none - don't leave none.

Don't be setting yourself up as some self righteous forum critic and then not expect a reply.
I left no post to you and did not appreciate the stuff you posted for me.
It's not needed, not necessary and not appreciated. If you don't like my threads, pass them by. Easy.

The fact is that you were hoping for an argument so you could jump in and show your moral superiority. I have no use for folks like that.

If you don't want none - don't leave none.

Your original exit post was long and convoluted. I just passed it by because of that, but also because I don't like stochastics. That is just me. I have not found them to be all that reliable in predicting anything. I prefer to use RSI because I am extremely familiar with that and it shows me a picture of a stock that says a lot.
If a stock drops in price because the RSI(2) was close to 90 then I can figure on a quick bounce. If it drops because RSI(2) AND RSI(5) are close to 90 then I know I can be pretty safe in selling and buying more of the stock a day or two later at a lower price and with the expectation that the trend is still in place.
If however, the RSI indicators are not above 70 and the price drops, that causes me to look deeper and probably bail out because something else is at work.
So, I find these indicators of great help. RSI(2) is of a very short duration, while RSI(5) is of a longer duration and the RSI(15) is the slowest and longest duration indicator of overbought and oversold conditions.
I use them because I know and trust them.
Yes indeed, stocks that are trending very strongly can remain overbought for a very long time, so it's not 100% but it is very good and informative.

Stochastics on the other hand give a lot of false signals and that you can see that by the different ways folks try to massage or smooth the stochastics in an attempt to reduce that. I just don't bother with the indicator preferring to stay with RSI and MACD.
The Bollinger bands are also a lot of help in showing the volatility of a stock.

A lot of these different opinions come out of personal preferences. Just because you use stochastics and I don't does not make either of us wrong, nor does it say anything about your intelligence because I dismiss stochastics out of hand. It just means different strokes for different folks.
As long as you have a plan and as long as it works for you, it can't be all bad.
That was the gist of my argument regarding time frames different traders use. None of them are bad as long as they work for that trader.
How that could have been taken as offensive by anyone is a puzzle, but I have long given up on trying to massage folks and their feelings.
In the main I just write how I feel. If I feel a certain indicator sucks I say so.
Does that mean people that use that indicator suck? NO. It just means I don't like that indicator.
Are my indicators and oscillators for everyone? NO. They are for me.
I like them and use them. I have toyed and experimented with most of them and found all of them have lots of problems if you don't take the entire situation into account. Just relying on an indicator can cause a lot of losses.
Taking too many indicators into consideration can cause you to lock up and freeze as you try to unravel it all. So that is why I insist on keeping things simple and at the same time have a picture of several indicators that tell me what could be going on.
Each of my charts shows the 20 day Bollinger band, RSI(2) (5) and (15) plus the MACD with histogram. That tells me pretty much at a glance as to what is going on and that is how I trade.




General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29723
11/7/2003 11:07:40 AM

DCUT is having a strong showing today. It could be in part because Anthrax is in the news again and DCUT makes Anthrax detectors. They are in all of the important security sectors, so that could add some explosive moments as the company waits for the earnings stream to kick in.
The company has delivered its biometric software in October 2003 with an installation-completed date of mid-November 2003. DICUT anticipates the revenue stream to commence in December of this year.
I don't generally base my trade decisions on fundamentals because basically I don't trust them, preferring to judge a company by market action, but it is a nice confirming indicator.


General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29722
11/7/2003 9:18:49 AM

ccdanson, I suppose your bickering comments are excluded?
Funny how it always works that way.

Your exit indicator is a book. I prefer the simple stuff.
Double tops
or
RSI(5) and RSI(2) above 80
or
a 10%+ drop
or
MACD crosses to the sell side
or
I get tired of a stock and look for greener pastures.

I have never found stochastics to be all that accurate. Way too many failures.
I much prefer the simpler stuff, it usually works for the best.



General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29721
11/7/2003 9:07:08 AM

mhashe, yeah, I'm with you. Stick to the major chart patterns and major indicators. Makes for much more accurate trading.


General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29720
11/7/2003 9:05:47 AM

Whatever Avery. How about you stay out of my threads and I stay out of yours and we never refer to each other again?
That would just please me to no end.


General Discussion · Just a Heads Up
JoeGrossinger
msg #29702
11/6/2003 3:04:17 PM

Good luck, my chart says ANCC is headed lower.


General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29700
11/6/2003 2:24:24 PM

ccdanson, why don't you post something constructive instead of this stuff?
Nobody needs your pointless remarks.

Avery is a short term trader. He has posted that innumerable times and as such I posted that he has a 2 minute time frame. The 2 minute chart has to be his main trading tool since that is what he goes after.
He has regaled us many times with how quick he trades. No thinking, no study, just reaction. That requires an extremely short duration type fixation.
He wrote it, not I. So I'm at a loss as to why he should take offense at my remarks.
In none of my posts have I said anything derogatory regarding this practice. If it makes money its makes money. I use it myself on occasion.


General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29691
11/6/2003 11:17:44 AM

I do have a clue Avery. You yourself bragged about trading one stock 10 times (alwasy making money at it too) in one day. That does not allow more than a 2 minute time frame.
What's the average length of time you hold a stock?



General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29671
11/5/2003 10:26:35 PM

The main difference as I see your opinion vs mine and vs Avery's is that of time frame. It appears to me that Avery has about a 2 minute time frame, your's is a bit longer and mine is longest of all.
For me, the time frame determines how wide the trendline can be. A very short time frame demands a very narrow trendline, while a longer one can be drawn with a magic marker.
So in a sense we can all disagree and be right or wrong at the same time.

No, for me NVDA was a no buy because first of all it was not and is not coming out of a intermediate trend reversal, so from my point of view it can go anywhere although the general trend of the stock is down.
Indeed, you can make money on the dips and peaks but that is not my style.
I prefer to catch a stock as it's coming out of a pretty clear bottom formation.

MCWEQ is also a no buy but that was a special exception in that the dead cat bounce is as close to a sure thing as one can get. But generally, I stay with a stock for 2 - 3 weeks and end up doing fairly well with not much sweat.
However, you are right about DCUT in that it is getting close to the decision point, but depending on how it acts tomorrow, I may add not take a way from my position in it.
When we discuss stocks and TA I try to be dispationate about it and will be as frank as possible. I don't generally engage in personalities unless provoked but I realize I can be without tact when discussion what to me is obvious.
I'm not always right and when I say I don't agree with your opinion I am definitely not saying you are stupid or don't know what you are talking about. It simply means from my point of view and coming from my time frame I don't agree with you.
If you think I am coming after you let me know and I will try to rephrase my post or lay low for a while.
It's not my intent to make enemies and I do like discussing TA, especially with folks that don't agree with me and are not afraid to say so.



General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
JoeGrossinger
msg #29663
11/5/2003 8:20:17 PM

Absolutely wrong Avery.
As long as a trend is intact it would be wrong to get out of a stock and when the trend no longer is intact then its time to get out and it would be wrong for a trader to stay.
The time frame is determined by the selected trend. A couple of weeks when using a daily chart is not all that long, while a couple of days on a 60 minute chart would be forever.
Nothing is precise or clear cut in TA.
You buy a stock based on a major trend on the daily chart and then if the stock goes down for two days but the trend is still intact and you get out then you are wrong because in most cases the stock recovers and continues to climb.
Sometimes folks neglect to get out when they should and then end up sitting under water for weeks. That is just as bad because you should be going with the trend and should know before you buy where the exits are.
If you find yourself getting out just before a stock rises then its because you don't know when a trend starts and stops.
A lot of traders have problems with that.
You can tell by Zuber's day-by-day account of stock action on the other threads that it's pointless to try and do a day by day. It does not work.
I'm just wondering when he is going to catch on to that fact.
How many times does a person have to be proven wrong before they change tactics?
When it comes to money, not very often for me.
Right now DCUT is a good example of this.
If tomorrow the stock closes below today's close it will be time to get out, if not then it must be presumed that the intermediate trend is intact and the trader should stick. Personally, I think it declined because it was short term overbought, which is now no longer true and the stock should rise tomorrow.
The RSI(2) was very deep in overbought territory yesterday, but I remained in the stock because RSI(5) was less than 70. I expected a pullback and got it.
A nimble trader could have jumped in today and bought more based on that, but I chose not to because RSI(2) is of extreme short duration not even lasting a full day at times.
Not all rules apply at all times. It all depends on why you bought the stock in the first place and what trendline you are following.


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