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Filter Exchange · A Nice Generic Filter That Works
msg #27125
6/29/2003 8:58:32 AM

In working with filters its easy to lose sight of what all of us are after.
A stock that goes up in price.
That seems obvious but most of us are looking for the magic oscillator or indicator to point us to the path of riches.
It don't exist.

This filter only considers price and volume, which are the only two true indicators as to what is going on with a stock.

The filter works well 168 days out as well as a short term indicator.
For 10 days or less duration don't get fixated with the performance numbers. Look at the 3 month charts instead. In fact, if you want to practice chart reading, this is an excellent filter for that as well.

Show stocks where close > MA(130)
And close reached a new 6 week high
And volume reached a new 124 day high

and Average Volume(90) is above 50000
and close is between 1 and 5

As with most things in life, simple is usually also best.
The number of hits per day is not very large although one can easily expand that list by expanding the prices one wants to work with.

However, I like stocks to be above their 130 MA in price and I like a nice increase in volume as the price increases. These are simple bullish indicators.

This filter will catch Bollinger Squeeze as well as many of the other sought after bullish conditions.

Filter Exchange · A Nice Generic Filter That Works
msg #27129
6/29/2003 12:14:00 PM

Thanks defghca, but I prefer to post my filters exactly the way I post them.
Those that don't like that are free to pass on by.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29612
11/2/2003 9:00:21 PM

DCUT is one of those stocks that will make you rich if you are willing to take some risk.

All of what I am going to write assumes that it will do as most stocks in this situation also do. Nothing new is postulated and I am simply playing the odds.

DCUT looks to me like it is getting ready to finish the bottoming formation and will complete the W when it reaches .135 or .14
At that point a lot of TA folks are going to realize this stock could really move and will jump aboard.

This illustrates one of the problems all chartists face and why there most certainly and most possitively is NO PRECISION to TA.
It's the willingness on the part of some traders to anticipate the next leg be it up or down that makes any hopes of precision fruitless, but also at the same time rewards those that can see it coming and are aboard before it happens.
That is the essence of stock analysis. Filling in the foggy areas.
The fact that DCUT right now is in the process of completing a W on the daily chart is indicative of a bottoming process that is about to be finished.
You can buy now (as I did at .08 or wait until it reaches the .14 area to be a little safer.
I bought a tractor-trailor load of this stock at .08 and sold it at .12 all of which I reinvested at .08 again in order to maximize the return.
The risk is there alright, but the fact that it's selling near the volume bars and the fact that it's finishing the bottoming process makes DCUT highly attractive. I caught this with my filter MOAF and am going to ride it to at least .22
This is the kind of stock to bet the farm on. The likelyhood of DCUT taking a 60% haircut is almost nil, while the upside is wide open.

I don't go for obscure and obtuse triangle interpretations and testing theories. If a stock is testing it's not going up and I have no use for them.
I want stocks that either do a W at the bottom or a M at the top when I want to go short. Go for the obvious and let other folks pay for the obuse.

W or double bottoms are great for those that can see them early because you can load up and unload at profit a couple of times before the stock actually begins the long climb towards the upper right corner of the chart.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29616
11/3/2003 12:12:49 AM

A nimble trader can multiply his or her gains several times by trading the stocks highs and pullbacks. It's also risky in that you can miss the train but initially the downside risk is low but the risk of missing the run away remains fairly high. I use RSI(5) and RSI(2) in tandem to try and pinpoint exit points but I can show tons of charts where a stock just keeps on roaring upwards even though RSI 15, 5 and 2 may be in the 90s. Nothing is sure in this game.
I don't know squat about mm to tell you the truth. I have concentrated on the charts, trying to stay with the major moves, staying alert to funny stuff reflected in the RSI, MACD and Bollinger bands. At times that causes me to bail prematurely, which is probably what the MM are working towards.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29619
11/3/2003 7:19:28 AM

1. Avery, thanks for reading and taking interest in my post.

2. If we are not going to argue, then what's the point?

Just kidding. You raise an interesting point in mentioning that all is not rosie with DCUT and that there are plenty of negative views regarding this stock. Folks need to balance all that in their heads before taking the plunge.
Indeed, trading is a lonely undertaking because in the final analysis it comes down to the lone trader deciding when to pull the trigger and with how much.
In my case I have broken all of my rules and gone full bore plus.

Here is one interesting post I just ran accross:

I like this person's approach because he documents his argument with charts.
It also illustrates a totally different approach from mine because I inherently do not trust OBV because of Joe Granville's fall from glory due to over-hyping of OBV. That post is about a week old now, but his remarks regarding the weekly MACD are right on target. That indicator has given a positive crossing on the daily chart since then.
I take interest in this post also because of yours regarding MM dealings and am wondering if OBV might be used as a confirming indicator that also sheds a bit of light in the manipulation of OTC BB stocks.
Certainly I am not the only trader that has noted the double bottom of DCUT is about 3/4 finished.
That is not to say this is a conclusive signal to buy but I do rely very heavy on double bottoms and double tops. Generally the worst that happens is a stock may put in a triple bottom which usually results in a meteoric price rise shortly afterwards.
So for me the risk/reward ratio is totally in my favor in charts like this.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29655
11/5/2003 4:08:11 PM

DCUT does have some technicals in it's favor but the big negative is that the 25 & 50 DMAs are in such a steep decline and are stiff resistance.
Notice that DCUT has bounced down the last 2 days from the 25 DMA confirming it as resistance.


I guess that explains why stocks never move up in a straight line and hardly ever move down in a straight line.

For every buyer there is a seller and that means two folks see the same facts in totally different ways.
The things you look at never come to my mind. I ignore them because a stock always has to climb a wall of worry and on the way down it always has to overcome optimism and hope.
The only things I look at are the major moves and trends. What happens tomorrow no one can say and I won't try to predict day-to-day moves.
I only worry about major trends and signals.
In the case of DCUT, the double bottom is being formed, the MACD is positive and the trendline is intact even with today's drop.
Worst case a cup and handle is forming and best case the W will be completed this week.
Where the stock will be tomorrow is impossible to tell. I know it's going up and that is what I go by.
Just as in the case of LOOK, NVDA and some others, the day-to-day is impossible to tell but the trend is easy enough to spot.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29657
11/5/2003 4:47:14 PM

Why do you take every rebuttal personally?
I simply outlined the different approaches to TA that you and I so very obviously take.
I maintain there is no precision and there is no way to accurately predict day to day moves of the stocks or markets.
I used a couple of stocks where we already went over this territory in some detail and it's not my fault your analyis on them proved wrong.
What I was trying to tell you is that DCUT can go down some more and it won't affect my view unless and until the major indicators go against me. As long as DCUT does not close below .085, as long as the MACD is positive and as long as the general trend is up, I consider the uptrend to be in place.
That is the same analysis that caused me to question you on LOOK and NVDA and to tell you the truth, I am right far more often than not because I take a longer view and don't pay any attention to support and resistance except to know why a stock may sputter before it moves on. Stocks cut through moving averages and stupport or resistance all the time. They are only temporary resting places. It's the aggregate of major trend signals that I go by.
If a 20/50 moving average crossing had any major signifance one could write a filter for that and get rich. The truth is that it's not all that significant.
Nor is the closing above or below the 20 day moving average. No filter that looks for that works in either direction.
So, I ignore the minor stuff in order to not get tossed off the hoss and stay with the major trend. If it turns sour then I'm gone.

The exception is stocks like MCWEQ where I bought and sold in the same hour yesterday. That is a beaten down dog that chances favored a dead cat bounce and I profited from it using what Avery calls money management and I call snatch and drop speculating. I don't even bother to do a chart analyis on these. I just buy the ones that are down 35% or more from yesterday and dump them when I'm in the money and move on.

Different approaches to different stocks. Not all situations call for the same approach anymore than the same line works for all girls nor the same kind of driving technique works for all cars and bikes.

I only really know these two methods where I either go with the major trend when a stock signals a major trend reversal, as in the case of DCUT or I go for a dead cat bounce when a stock is taken out and shot.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29658
11/5/2003 4:51:58 PM

I should add that I only play the dead cat bounce once with the stocks that get killed. I don't play it again on that same stock. Ever. MCWEQ is back to .06 but I'm not going to touch it because the market has had time to look at it and it can actually do down more now. That play is a one-shot-per-stock play for me.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29663
11/5/2003 8:20:17 PM

Absolutely wrong Avery.
As long as a trend is intact it would be wrong to get out of a stock and when the trend no longer is intact then its time to get out and it would be wrong for a trader to stay.
The time frame is determined by the selected trend. A couple of weeks when using a daily chart is not all that long, while a couple of days on a 60 minute chart would be forever.
Nothing is precise or clear cut in TA.
You buy a stock based on a major trend on the daily chart and then if the stock goes down for two days but the trend is still intact and you get out then you are wrong because in most cases the stock recovers and continues to climb.
Sometimes folks neglect to get out when they should and then end up sitting under water for weeks. That is just as bad because you should be going with the trend and should know before you buy where the exits are.
If you find yourself getting out just before a stock rises then its because you don't know when a trend starts and stops.
A lot of traders have problems with that.
You can tell by Zuber's day-by-day account of stock action on the other threads that it's pointless to try and do a day by day. It does not work.
I'm just wondering when he is going to catch on to that fact.
How many times does a person have to be proven wrong before they change tactics?
When it comes to money, not very often for me.
Right now DCUT is a good example of this.
If tomorrow the stock closes below today's close it will be time to get out, if not then it must be presumed that the intermediate trend is intact and the trader should stick. Personally, I think it declined because it was short term overbought, which is now no longer true and the stock should rise tomorrow.
The RSI(2) was very deep in overbought territory yesterday, but I remained in the stock because RSI(5) was less than 70. I expected a pullback and got it.
A nimble trader could have jumped in today and bought more based on that, but I chose not to because RSI(2) is of extreme short duration not even lasting a full day at times.
Not all rules apply at all times. It all depends on why you bought the stock in the first place and what trendline you are following.

General Discussion · A Stock With Room To Grow
msg #29671
11/5/2003 10:26:35 PM

The main difference as I see your opinion vs mine and vs Avery's is that of time frame. It appears to me that Avery has about a 2 minute time frame, your's is a bit longer and mine is longest of all.
For me, the time frame determines how wide the trendline can be. A very short time frame demands a very narrow trendline, while a longer one can be drawn with a magic marker.
So in a sense we can all disagree and be right or wrong at the same time.

No, for me NVDA was a no buy because first of all it was not and is not coming out of a intermediate trend reversal, so from my point of view it can go anywhere although the general trend of the stock is down.
Indeed, you can make money on the dips and peaks but that is not my style.
I prefer to catch a stock as it's coming out of a pretty clear bottom formation.

MCWEQ is also a no buy but that was a special exception in that the dead cat bounce is as close to a sure thing as one can get. But generally, I stay with a stock for 2 - 3 weeks and end up doing fairly well with not much sweat.
However, you are right about DCUT in that it is getting close to the decision point, but depending on how it acts tomorrow, I may add not take a way from my position in it.
When we discuss stocks and TA I try to be dispationate about it and will be as frank as possible. I don't generally engage in personalities unless provoked but I realize I can be without tact when discussion what to me is obvious.
I'm not always right and when I say I don't agree with your opinion I am definitely not saying you are stupid or don't know what you are talking about. It simply means from my point of view and coming from my time frame I don't agree with you.
If you think I am coming after you let me know and I will try to rephrase my post or lay low for a while.
It's not my intent to make enemies and I do like discussing TA, especially with folks that don't agree with me and are not afraid to say so.

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