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Filter Exchange · +di and -di creating a tight spring
Arooj
msg #83800
12/3/2009 7:25:27 PM


Hey Bill,

check this site out: www.adxcellence.com. It'll give you more food for thought.

I have bought their book on ADX, and I have studied it, but my SF coding skills are not as advanced as I would wish them to be. Your observations are very good, and there is a great deal of information present when you change the "typical" parameters of ADX/DMI.

I will attempt to post more soon; my current efforts are more in the day-trading realm but I too want to be able to generate
statistics like the RFR screen based on certain ADX/DMI criteria.

General Discussion · the best of Mary4Money......
Arooj
msg #52772
7/3/2007 9:23:37 AM

thanks for the advice, msummer.... I think you are right, and maybe I'm still in the stage of "technical delight" where there are more interesting toys than good judgement in just using a few of them consistently.

The most useful M4M filters IMO help to develop a list of the usual suspects (TRO would likely call these his "cows"). I also like the idea of ATR( )/EMA( ), usually over 8 or 52 periods, as it gives a flavor of those stocks with more movement in them (traderblues nicely characterized this as "opportunity").

I add this to many of my fav filters:

set {opport, atr(52)/ema(52)}
add column opport and
sort column 5 descending


In this way I can see those stocks that ideally have the best potential. I've seen this worded using stddev as well, so there are other ways to this.



Filter Exchange · Range Contraction/Expansion Filter
Arooj
msg #52735
modified
7/1/2007 5:15:22 PM

hi alf44,

I DID get my 30" Dell just to see the results of your filter!! I didn't think it would make such a difference, but wowsa!

This is the equivalent of a Manhattan 4-star French restaurant meal being fed to a pauper, so I will partake of it gently, but many thanks again for a fantastic contribution.

Why can't we have a "sticky" panel here on SF (like on other sites) where we can have a bunch of valuable posts at the very top of the forum lists? This would save a lot of time, and can help newbies and pros alike.

The dynamics of price action that you've introduced me too are extraordinarily important, and they expand what a filter is capable of. Experienced chart readers can distinguish areas of accumulation/distribution and the accompanying range contraction, which occur before eventual expansion. This filter helps me to quantitatively "see" this.

Many filters could be improved IMO by a subtle appreciation of these dynamics, as (for example) simply witnessing an increase in volume may not do justice to what's on the chart.

General Discussion · the best of Mary4Money......
Arooj
msg #52734
7/1/2007 5:03:59 PM

Hi Niko,

I have the highest respect for you, especially the way you can whip out those filters in a jiffy (several are just plain elegant, and concise). And msummer, I am using your latest options filter as the basis of my current intraday strategy - still not ready for prime time, but soon..... based upon an RSI(2) crossing RSI(5). I'll post it in the filters sections when completed.

I would love to see some kind of integration between SF and, say, Cool-Trade, in order to have a seamless transtion between the ease of coding we find here and an actual platform to trade on, but that's another subject.

I agree that clarity is valuable. Despite the difficulties, we've all overcome obstacles of one sort or another just to have discretionary income to invest, so it's still worthwhile to make an effort and see if any "jewels" might be lying around in posts of various sorts.



General Discussion · the best of Mary4Money......
Arooj
msg #52658
modified
6/29/2007 8:14:46 AM

To preface, I am a SF rookie, learning from the pros here, simply too many to mention but all of whom I'm grateful to.

I understand the controversy regarding some of the posts from M4M, AKA Stockbottomholygrail on Yahoo boards. I have spent some time in correcting some of his grammatical errors that I myself have been guilty of, and I present the following without any editorial comments, save one:

We know that TRO has given M4M credit for introducing him to the use of RSI(2), which in the right hands can be quite lucrative. If this turns out to be his only contribution, it may be a valuable one.




Exactly how to predict stock and market direction SBHG 6/13/07

How to know what direction the market and stocks will go and how to tell if the bottom or top is a true reversal of the trend- itís all about volume.

If the volume is light at tops and heavy going down into the lows, it will either be a bear market reversal into a bull market, like you saw the 2 months before the NASDAQ hit its bottom - or it will be higher volume on tops than bottoms like you saw from the NASDAQ high in 2000 till it got to July 2002.

The people who control the market need to control two things:

1. Your fear
2. Stock volume

Volume gives them the smart volume - so during the last 5 days we have seen a lot of sudden dropping from the highs on big volume to the lowís volume being high- this is how they manipulate the market with the illusion that the market is going to crash and how they get you to give up the shares cheaper than you got them and they essentially get them near the lows.

I call this the bear rollercoaster syndrome - they repeatedly take you down to each bottom very fast over and over, so after doing this for 4-7 times in 2 weeks, you want to stay out of the market because of fear of losing more money. This is what 90% of the people are wrong even in an obvious bull market.

They make their big money fast playing the options - selling the bulk of their calls off at light volume tops and reversing to heavy put buying, so they can profit really big when it hits bottom. Then, they cash in their puts at the bottom and buy those cheap calls again - the reason you see this incredible increase in option volume during the last week before option expiration is because they make the most money since the options are at their cheapest point.

I would be surprised if we saw a giant short squeeze on the NASDAQ on Thursday and Friday because in this roller coaster game they play they have taken out most of the sells and their is nobody to challenge them when they move the markets up fast. If you look at the last August low you will see they did the fear factor thing with you for 3 straight weeks and then moved up really fast.

They also did it for about 10 days near the 3/5/07 low - here they were able to break the QQQQs 3 year high consolidation and move it parabolic above 43.50 - and over the course of the last five days here where actually AAPL and the QQQQs have traded in a very narrow range.

All this becomes very obvious if you notice that in these last 5 days the QQQQ has had 4 big volume days down and one up, yet we havenít broke they $46 support.

If you want to make a fortune, buy the July QQQQ option for 47-49, RIMM 175-190, AAPL 130-145, and GOOG 530-580 - you make your biggest money off these roller coaster bottoms like we are in now,

If you had bought the March and April calls near the 3/5/07 lows for these stocks, you would have made 500-10000% on your options, playing them at strike prices 2-6 levels above the option strike prices equivalent to the stockís low price.

Think about it, even on the 5/24/07 low, GOOG went 470-528, QQQQ went 44-48, AAPL went 92-128, RIMM 152-170.

If you look at the last week before expiration - you will see that you will either be at a high or a low and what will happens a low will turn into a high and a high will turn into a low- from the last 1-5 days before exp. to the next 1-5 days before exp.




How to know exactly where the dead bottom is? 6/19/2007 12:34:30 PM

ďI use the rsi(2) daily for getting very near to the bottom like the SPY and QQQQ on 6/7.

I always use the 2-day intraday linear regression. Usually the QQQQ will go down 0.15 - 0.30 the day after rsi(2) reaches a low. On 6/7, it closed at 46.35 with an rsi(2) of 2.9%, and on the next day it gapped down intraday to the exact bottom of the 2 day LR channel to 46.16 (which you can read before the open on Esignal).

When it got there, the QQQQ went up and down, bouncing off the LR for 1-2 hours; what you do then is use a 3-10 min rsi(10) to see if you have a bottom positive divergence (which it had, along with AAPL at 116 and GOOG at 500).


This is where you buy your options for the next month (for Julyís strikes, in the following ranges):

QQQQ 47-51
GOOG 530-600
AAPL 120-150.


When you do this, you usually make 700-10000% on all the options, with the highest levels paying off the highest % gain.


Letís look at RIMM; on its last earning it dropped from 148 to <129, and at 129 we had the same bottom low on the daily rsi(2) at <2%. On the rsi(10) it demonstrated a large positive divergence at the bottom LR, so I bought the May 140-155 calls at an average of $33 per contract.

When it hit its top of 155.24 on 5/9, I cashed them in for an average of $1300 per contract.

Daily rsi(2) at 99.9% (which you have to read live) hit the dead top of the 2 day intraday LR at 155.24 and had a big negative divergence using the 5 min rsi(10).

There you go guys, now you can make millions playing options off each top and bottom.Ē


{in another Yahoo post, he mentions the following, which is paraphrased}

"The best call options for the QQQQ are at strike prices two levels ABOVE the strike price equal to its low (at or just out of the money calls).

For GOOG, RIMM, and AAPL, the best strike choices are between 2-6 levels ABOVE the strike price equal or nearly equal to its low price. The favored level is 0.05, which is the $5 contract.

Don't pay more than $50/contract."





I will give you my secrets in predicting earnings:

1. Look for a good shift to either the call or put side (ADBE has shifted to 95% calls last week).

2. Look for the volume to be >1.5 times its average volume and if the stock is near its 2-4 day low you have a 70% chance of good earning. If you are near the top for the last 2-4 days, you have a 70% chance of negative earnings.









The high or low has been within 1-5 days before expiration

Itís actually been the high for 6-7 months and also it will be this month- the reason is the smart money can get those options really cheap because of time decay- I got the QQQQ 47 s for 0.17 and the 48s for 0.03.

I have made an average of 700% on each move of the QQQQ up and down by playing $2.00 to $2.50 out of the money.

I bought them this last time at the QQQQ 46.20 and the 47s have gone from 0.17 to 0.38 (going to 1.20), and the 48s are from 0.03 to 0.06 (going to about 0.55).




6/5/07
Itís very easy - the people behind the big moves on dndn are not interested in the stock itself. They are interested in the options which can make 5-100 times more money.

You know when this stock is going to move by watching the call and put volume and you wait for it to change dramatically and you buy in the direction of the options. In the days before it ran from $5 to $25, the options jumped 5 times in volume and 10-1 in favor of the calls.

Same thing when it was near 18 before it fell to 5 - there was a 400% increase in options, with 85% of the volume in put options. Now the same thing is happening again on the call side, meaning we go up from here- the last 3 days the calls = 140000 contracts and the puts 32000 and they will stay here until they get enough calls to control the stock going up.


6/4/07
What I do is use the QQQQ as an indicator to get to the bottom of an optionable stock - you can get this on askresearch.com for free. What makes my system better than anything ever invented is the fact that I also use a weekly volatility indicator to choose the stock.

I like to have >5% movement for the last 52 weeks.

Here is what I use for QQQQ bottoms:

stock is optionable and
ema(5)above ema(10) and
ema(10) above ema(20) and
ema(20) above ema(50) and
ema(50) above ema(200) and
rsi(2) below 20 and
average volume (100) above 200000 and
volume above 50000 and
set{wm%, weekly atr(52)/weekly ema(52)} and
wm% above 0.05 and
add column wm%
sort column 5 descending

The ema assures you have the strongest stocks in big uptrends, and the wm% gives you the stocks that will move up the best.

The larger the wm%, the bigger jump in the stocks when they move up.

On 5/24, we hit the bottom of the QQQQ at 46, with the daily rsi(2) at 8% (and you have to read these values live with tabular results). To be sure that the QQQQ was at its bottom intraday, I used the 30 and 60 min rsi(2) which were both <2% at $46 while the bottom was in.



10/27/06
Go to ragingbull.com on any stock- you will see a box in the upper left hand corner. Put SNDK in the box- this will take you to the message boards- you will see the blue headers above the messages- click on I watch. Here you can do 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, or any day out of the last month.

Use the 1 week on SNDK.


What you want to see, on a big dropdown or the low rsi(2) bottom, is

Dark blue bars, which means institutions are interested in buying the stock. At the bottom you want 70-100% dark blue.

On a bottom of a stock you will want to see more buying than selling - the more dark blue the better. On SNDK it was 60% buying and 40% selling. Look at TIE and CAT using the 1 month chart - massive bottom buying for TIE at $23 and CAT at $59-60.


Dark red bars means they want to sell.
(At tops you will see 70-90% dark red sells)


After a stock has hit the top or bottom you will see about 50/50 on both dark red and dark blue- this means the stock will continue in the up or down trend it is in.


Filter Exchange · My filter - tell me what you think!
Arooj
msg #52657
6/29/2007 7:48:09 AM

hi psheridan (from Nemo, right?)

There is a lot of meat with very little gristle in this filter.

The picks for this morning are BZH and AVT, and I will be following them in real-time to see how they do, particularly if options are an appropriate way to play them.

I agree with the difficulties in backtesting, not just within SF but in general. Frankly, I don't do it anymore and I look at the charts instead.

I don't see any alternative other than explicit conditional exits IF you want to automate the strategy; it's beyond the scope of this short reply but fixed PT and SL values are not likely to optimize the strength of this filter.

Right now in RT, I like RSI(2) crossing below RSI(5) as an exit but sometimes this may be choppy (gets you out a little too quickly), and is tempered by looking at something like a TRIX(5) and EMA(6) crossover (the former falling under the latter is bearish).

I also like the +DMI crossing below the ADX (not the -DMI) but I think this is a rather untraditional use of this indicator.

Please continue to contribute - I really admire your prior posts and have made one of them my favorites. I have resisted posting my early constructs but will soon and hope to incorporate some of your ideas.



Filter Exchange · Filter based on price and volume
Arooj
msg #52469
6/24/2007 6:03:11 AM

This is very interesting.

Thanks for sharing your efforts - there are some rather clever ideas embedded in this filter (some above my head ;-). I'm going to check the results the next couple of weeks; if some lightning strikes I'll be sure to share as well.

Filter Exchange · /* SureFire Long Entry SELECTION CRITERIA */
Arooj
msg #52172
6/11/2007 10:10:49 PM

hi bkhurana,

it has taken me about 4 months of reading SF posts (printing them out, dissecting them, copying relevant sections to Word documents, etc.) to begin understanding what was going on here.

I am still amazed at the level of contribution that many of the traders here have poured out using these tools; it represents many thousand man-days of work and that's likely underestimating it. It's our responsibility to take the time and try to piece together what may work for us individually. As much as I may want to be "spoon fed," it ain't gonna work in the long term.

Having said this, I too am interested in what you have mentioned. Basicially, I've been interested in finding the period immediately after range contraction, namely expansion, which we can characterize as increased volatility, and others have mentioned the following in this regard:

1. "Opportunity" which can be construed at ATR/price, or ATR(52)/EMA(52) which gives the ratio of average daily range over an exponentially weighted average (in this case, of 52 days). A shorter range of, say, 10 days could also be used. Statistically, greater gains have been obtained from those equities which demonstate greater opportunity (this term copyright to Traderblues ;-)

2. Comparing current price to historical volatility (see alf44's wonderful post of 5/28/07, under "historical volatility help"), and selecting those within a desirable range.

3. Sorting stocks via analysis of normalized standard deviation {stddev}; one need not write an explicit conditional statement for this, but simply add a column, then sort through it like the following (shamelessly copied from a reply to Msummer's recent post):

and add column normalized standard deviation(85) {stddev}
and sort column 5 descending


I not saying that all of these are equivalent, but they do provide a starting point.

If you are seeking the more quiet, range contraction period, merely state that the above criteria are to be at a minimum for the time period of your choice.

I am no options guru, but from what I have learned I have become wary of cheap options which may turn out to be a false bargain. I use them as a proxy for the stock purchase, and base my stop loss and decision for buying them on the underlying, keeping deltas close to 0.65 as it is the best accelerating part of the appreciation curve.

I hope this is of value. I still am wearing my SF diapers but as soon as I am housebroken I hope to contribute in a more substantive way.



Filter Exchange · there is a way to basicaly never lose and win bigtime
Arooj
msg #52040
6/7/2007 7:23:33 AM


As I understand it, the focal QQQQ correction in an otherwise up-market is a buying opportunity, as you've demonstrated with your recent volatility (sm%) filters, with multiple ema support requirement.

GOOG remains volatile despite its high price. Thus, buying out of the money calls when QQQQ reached a relative low and/or RSI(2) < 10 is a low-risk strategy with high potential on the upside. I wonder if it helps that the high-flyers also demonstrate some reduction of rsi.

Let us know if this is basically correct; I may be missing some secret sauce here......

Filter Exchange · Range Contraction/Expansion Filter
Arooj
msg #52028
6/6/2007 5:33:03 PM

dear alf44,

many thanks for posting this. In my saved filters I simply renamed this "alfworkofart," then realized the pun ;-).

I have every excuse now to get the new 30" monitor I've been lusting after. On a more serious note, this is really a tremendous undertaking and what SF is all about.

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