StockFetcher Forums · View by Author: AntNet (36 messages) ·  [ Display By: Date / Subject ]<< 1 2 3 4 >> 
General Discussion · The scoop on Pivot Points!
AntNet
msg #32722
7/30/2004 3:17:20 PM

Pivot Points (PP) have been around since trading began.

Before computers and still today EVERY floor trader knows the DAILY PP for the equity they trade.
Whether memorized, written on their shirt sleeve or forearm skin, they KNOW the PP.

There a some slight variations but the standard formula (used by SF) is:

R2 = PP + (High - Low)
R1 = 2 * PP - Low
PP = (High + Low + Close) / 3.0
S1 = 2 * PP - High
S2 = PP - (High - Low)

See http://www.crbindex.com/techtip/tipv4n10.htm for a good general explanation.

Tom DeMark (Long time Fund Trading Guru) has his own twist on PP.
See his explanation at http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/041404.asp .

Another well known variation is the "Camarilla Calculator" at :
http://www.surefirething.com .

Personally, I have a spreadsheet of my plagiarized stand alone version.
I also have PP programmed into my charting software.
(If you want a copy of the spreadsheet contact me directly using
BLBANT at hotmail dot com , with Subject: "StockFetcher PP ???"
or my spam filter will probably delete your message.
Please DO NOT use this forum to request the spreadsheet.

PP info ALONE would NOT cause me to make a trade.
But in conjunction with a confluence of other indicators it is very accurate.

Here's a general rule:

1. If today's close is BELOW today's S2, BUY on a move above tomorrows PP.

2. If today's close is ABOVE today's R2, SELL on a move Below tomorrows PP.

(Some traders also consider Lows Below and Highs Above.)

If you have a good charting program that draws the Pivot levels you
will see the high accuracy rate of this approach.
(One warning, results are less meaningful for thinly traded issues.)

Another insight dealing with the chart pattern known as cup and handle is at:
http://www.shrewdinvesting.com/links.asp?do_search=1&keywords=pivot

PP are different from "Turning Points" but when they match up trend changes usually happen.

I am not affiliated in any way with the links shared above.

If you have PP related questions or comments, Post Away!



Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32404
6/22/2004 3:59:53 PM

I use a real time streaming data, charting program with several other indicator variations to make my trades.
(SF has not yet made them available, but I've ask and they are looking into it.)

The SF Raw Breakout filter gives me candidates to watch. I usually do a Daily vs Weekly Match.
Only 3 stocks showed up in that match yesterday.

You can also either "Match" or "Chain" other filters with "Raw Breakout".

For example on the SF Home page (see trade set-ups and comments) combine the "Volatility Breakout"
with "Raw Breakout" and you can really narrow the field.

Watch for Breakouts that occur :
at strong support or resistance levels like the CEMA(PP,50) and CWMA(PP,200),

after a long run of Higher-High and Higher-Low or Lower-Low and Lower-High Swings,

As well as Stochastic, RSI, ADX and Candle overbought or oversold formations.

There is no one magic buy/sell filter.
You have to be able to read the market and understand what the filters / indicators are telling you.

The Raw Breakout works because it identifies extreme consolidation after which a period of
buying or selling must follow, and usually in fairly short order.

There is a suspect / danger when the day range is unusually larger than normal. Large day ranges will often
trigger the Raw Breakout and result in a whip-saw pattern.
Raw Breakouts with "Very Narrow Range Days" often indicate a continuation of the consolidation.

Hope this help, good trading,
Opa.



Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32323
6/11/2004 3:48:45 AM

As of EOD 6/10:

1. Original "Un-Revised" Daily Raw Breakout = 68
2. Original "Un-Revised" Weekly Raw Breakout = 64
3. "Revised" Daily Raw Breakout = 72
4. "Revised" Weekly Raw Breakout = 63
5. Match List 1 vs. 2 = 9
6. Match List 3 vs. 4 = 9 (same 9 as 5)

Q. What's wrong with this picture?

A. The relationship between 2 and 4 CAN NOT be correct!

Mathematically, 2 MUST be a Sub-Set of 4 and therefore 4 can NOT be less than 2.
(The Revised version "includes" High or Low "EQUAL TO" and Above CWMA while the original defined Above ONLY.)

The mystery continues! Could it be a BUG that rounds values differently before doing the filter comparison?
(What is the SF Support take on this?)

Tip for Raw Breakout users and actually applicable in all cases.
As you decrease the Volume requirement in a filter you MUST increase the period of the filter to avoid false results due to Volume Spikes.

It could be fine to trade a stock in the 50,000 to 100,000 daily volume IF that volume is consistent.
50,000 AvgV over 90, 120 or 200 days is much safer than 50,000 AvgV over 20 or 50 days.

In reply to:
1. Does this mean my weekly tweak has tighter breakout req, as AntNet mentioned?

As of EOD 6/9 your unchanged filter version = 4 picks
As of EOD 6/10 your unchanged filter version = 0 picks
This filter definitely imposes "tighter" filter parameters.

2. Do you folks think my above price/vol additions can result in a better, more stable list? i.e. avoiding penny stocks and making sure the volume is "good" enough

To avoid penny stocks "Not OTCBB" is already included. To be further restrictive "and Optionable" could be used.
In fact I use that criteria regularly because I often trade Options.

Raw Breakout is just a "First stage / cut filter". It only tells you, with high reliability, here is a candidate that is probably going to make a nice move that you can make some money on. It should give you enough time to determine how to trade the move using methods you have confidence in.

For those of you using eSignal as your charting tool, I can send you my template with the custom EFS indicators I use with Raw Breakout. (This is NOT an offer to Sell these indicators. If you can use them and want them, ask and I'll give them to you.) You can contact me using BLBANT at HOTMAIL dot COM. Please don't tie up this forum with requests. Be sure to include StockFetcher in the subject line or my SPAM program will probably delete you before I see the message.

Good Trading,
Opa.




Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32322
6/11/2004 1:13:04 AM

As it seems we are proceeding, except for a few issues SF Support has yet to address, I thought I reply to the question posted ealier:

What tips can you give regarding identification of "top" candidates since the list can be long?

I do a "Match List" of the Daily and Weekly picks. The stocks that show up on both are prime candidates for a move.

On the low end (below $5.00) I BUY in my IRA Account, usually up to a maximun of $1000.00 in even 100 lots because sometimes it's possible to do a "Covered Call". (Yes, Covered Calls can be done in an IRA).

I usually time my entry using ADX(8) with +|-DI(14). You read that right! ADX(8) with +|-DI(14). (Think outside the box!)

I also want to see a close above CWMA(13) and once in use CWMA(30) as an absolute exit. I usually place a GTC EXIT somewhere between $0.20 to $1.00 above my fill depending on the historical range / movement of the stock. I try not to hang on to these for more than 2 to 3 weeks. (Although if you look at the charts a trailing stop can yield some impressive gains.)

For higher price stocks (above $35.00) I use options. I only pick the ones that are at or within a few cents of the strike price and buy an ATM straddle (at the money Call & Put) at least 3 cycles out and sometimes Leap Straddles.
(If the numbers are right I might SELL a further out "Strangle" to take in some premium to offset the Straddle cost. My Money Management approach is NOT to spend more than $1,000.00 in any stock. This forces diversity and limits risk.) These need to be monitored a bit more. Often you can break the Straddle and make money both ways!

In any case, look back at what the stocks did after being picked up by this filter. In many cases I've seen the "Raw Breakout" signal with and often just prior to some of the more popular filters discussed in the SF Forums.

Opa.


Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32314
6/10/2004 12:57:00 AM

I think I figured out some of the problem.

Intuitively I knew there had to be LESS Weekly picks vs Daily.
Getting 322 weekly and 92 daily didn't make sense.
When I ran Siliconhippy's version of the weekly, I only got 4 picks and it was supose to be the same filter! Hummmmm....... It just didn't make sense.

Comparing the code I noticed the "weekly" preface was in different places.
Each filter was making a different search. My weekly was using the DAILY CWMA's against the WEEKLY high and low. So obviously the number of picks would be greater. Siliconhippy was doing the opposite using Weekly CWMA's against the Daily high and low. Thus getting far less picks. But they should be VERY GOOD candidates for a breakout given the much tighter requirements. So we learned something.

As far as the other issues / observations, they still need to be resolved, but we're making progress!

Opa.

StockFetcher[set{hw60,count(weekly high below weekly CWMA(PP,60,1),1)}
set{lw60,count(weekly low above weekly CWMA(PP,60,1),1)}
set{hw30,count(weekly high below weekly CWMA(PP,30,1),1)}
set{lw30,count(weekly low above weekly CWMA(PP,30,1),1)}
set{hw20,count(weekly high below weekly CWMA(PP,20,1),1)}
set{lw20,count(weekly low above weekly CWMA(PP,20,1),1)}
set{hw12,count(weekly high below weekly CWMA(PP,12,1),1)}
set{lw12,count(weekly low above weekly CWMA(PP,12,1),1)}
set{hw10,count(weekly high below weekly CWMA(PP,10,1),1)}
set{lw10,count(weekly low above weekly CWMA(PP,10,1),1)}
set{hw6,count(weekly high below weekly CWMA(PP,6,1),1)}
set{lw6,count(weekly low above weekly CWMA(PP,6,1),1)}
set{hw4,count(weekly high below weekly CWMA(PP,4,1),1)}
set{lw4,count(weekly low above weekly CWMA(PP,4,1),1)}
hw60 equals 0 and lw60 equals 0 and
hw30 equals 0 and lw30 equals 0 and
hw20 equals 0 and lw20 equals 0 and
hw12 equals 0 and lw12 equals 0 and
hw10 equals 0 and lw10 equals 0 and
hw6 equals 0 and lw6 equals 0 and
hw4 equals 0 and lw4 equals 0 and
Not OTCBB and volume above 250000 and
average volume(20) above 250000 and
add column weekly high {W high} and
add column weekly low {W low} and
add column weekly CWMA(PP,30,1) {&ma30} and
add column weekly CWMA(PP,13,1) {&ma13}]


Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32312
6/9/2004 10:32:49 PM

Hmmmm,
Why didn't the filters get picked up with
Fetcher[
]


Opa


Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32311
6/9/2004 10:26:57 PM

Here are the 2 REVISED basic "Raw Breakout" filters.
The first is DAILY, the second is WEEKLY.
I think I got them correct.
(We need to Double Check before using!)
More comments / questions for SF Support below.

Raw Breakout (Daily)
Fetcher[
set{hd60,count(high below CWMA(PP,60,1),1)}
set{ld60,count(low above CWMA(PP,60,1),1)}
set{hd30,count(high below CWMA(PP,30,1),1)}
set{ld30,count(low above CWMA(PP,30,1),1)}
set{hd20,count(high below CWMA(PP,20,1),1)}
set{ld20,count(low above CWMA(PP,20,1),1)}
set{hd12,count(high below CWMA(PP,12,1),1)}
set{ld12,count(low above CWMA(PP,12,1),1)}
set{hd10,count(high below CWMA(PP,10,1),1)}
set{ld10,count(low above CWMA(PP,10,1),1)}
set{hd6,count(high below CWMA(PP,6,1),1)}
set{ld6,count(low above CWMA(PP,6,1),1)}
set{hd4,count(high below CWMA(PP,4,1),1)}
set{ld4,count(low above CWMA(PP,4,1),1)}

hd60 equals 0 and ld60 equals 0
and hd30 equals 0 and ld30 equals 0
and hd20 equals 0 and ld20 equals 0
and hd12 equals 0 and ld12 equals 0
and hd10 equals 0 and ld10 equals 0
and hd6 equals 0 and ld6 equals 0
and hd4 equals 0 and ld4 equals 0

and Not OTCBB and volume above 250000
and average volume(20) above 250000

add column high
add column low
add column CWMA(PP,30,1) {&ma30}
add column CWMA(PP,13,1) {&ma13}
]
---------------------------------------

Raw Breakout (Weekly)
Fetcher[
set{hw60,count(weekly high below CWMA(PP,60,1),1)}
set{lw60,count(weekly low above CWMA(PP,60,1),1)}
set{hw30,count(weekly high below CWMA(PP,30,1),1)}
set{lw30,count(weekly low above CWMA(PP,30,1),1)}
set{hw20,count(weekly high below CWMA(PP,20,1),1)}
set{lw20,count(weekly low above CWMA(PP,20,1),1)}
set{hw12,count(weekly high below CWMA(PP,12,1),1)}
set{lw12,count(weekly low above CWMA(PP,12,1),1)}
set{hw10,count(weekly high below CWMA(PP,10,1),1)}
set{lw10,count(weekly low above CWMA(PP,10,1),1)}
set{hw6,count(weekly high below CWMA(PP,6,1),1)}
set{lw6,count(weekly low above CWMA(PP,6,1),1)}
set{hw4,count(weekly high below CWMA(PP,4,1),1)}
set{lw4,count(weekly low above CWMA(PP,4,1),1)}

hw60 equals 0 and lw60 equals 0
and hw30 equals 0 and lw30 equals 0
and hw20 equals 0 and lw20 equals 0
and hw12 equals 0 and lw12 equals 0
and hw10 equals 0 and lw10 equals 0
and hw6 equals 0 and lw6 equals 0
and hw4 equals 0 and lw4 equals 0

and Not OTCBB and volume above 250000
and average volume(20) above 250000

add column weekly high {w high}
add column weekly low {w low}
add column weekly CWMA(PP,30,1) {&ma30}
add column weekly CWMA(PP,13,1) {&ma13}
]

----------------------------------------
Observation # 1. (EOD 6/9/04)
My Un-Revised Daily filter (see prior post) found 92 stocks.
The Revised Daily filter also found 92 BUT each list differs by one stock.
Un-Revised missed UNP and Revised missed GNLB.
I determined this by doing a "Match List" comparison.

In effect, the Revised List should have ALL the stocks found in the Un-Rev list PLUS possibly more because the parameters INCLUDE "and equals" due to the revision. Therefore, the Rev List should contain 93 stocks. (assuming it picked up 1 more than the basic un-Rev list)

Bug Question for SF: Why the Difference? Is there an error in the code?

Observation # 2. (EOD 6/9/04)
I also noticed that several stocks were checked and highlighted in the results when the filter was run. I do not know why.

Bug Question for SF: What is causing certain stocks to be checked and highlighted when the filter is run? What is the significance?

Observation # 3. (EOD 6/9/04)
When doing a "Match List" comparing the Daily vs Weekly filter ALL Daily are reported. There were 92 stocks in the Rev Daily and 322 in the Rev Weekly. This means a maximum of 92 EXACT matches were possible. (BUT UNLIKELY!)
I find it very hard to believe that EVERY Daily Matched EXACTLY with the Weekly.

Bug Question for SF: On a separate charting program I double checked and found my suspicions were correct. NOT ALL DAILY picks correspond with a WEEKLY Match. Please review to determine why we get this reporting error. ???

Something seems to be amiss in the processing of these SF filters. I know the concept is accurate because I use the filters as an indicator (playing an Alert Sound) in my charting program with a live data feed. When I get the Alert I know something is about to happen that requires my attention to Buy or Sell. (The parameter selection makes this filter / indicator very fractal.)

Opa.




Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32307
6/9/2004 12:08:07 PM

Thanks C,

Could I ask you to indulge an old man with a little more info?

set{GE60,1 - count(high below CWMA(PP,60,1),1)}

Am I understanding this corectly?

GE60 = varriable name when CWMA(PP,60,1) is >= high

Can't you define the true condition with a 0 rather than having to do the subtraction?
Like ...... ,60,1),0} Doesn't the zero at the end define the True condition? or is it only the default condition?

I agree it seems more logical for True = 1 and False = 0.

Once I do all the "set{....}" statements, are the filter statements then just "varriable name = 1" ???

Perhaps you could clear it up for me with an example on just one complete CWMA filter and I can take it from there.

Thanks again,
Opa.





Filter Exchange · Excellent Breakout Warning Filter!
AntNet
msg #32303
6/9/2004 12:16:26 AM

Here's a filter that usually finds an equity in or at the end of consolidation, just before it breaks out. Use your own methods to determine which direction it will go.

I've found a close above / below the breakout bar with a buy / sell at the CWMA(PP,13) and a confirming CWMA(PP,30) works very well.

Most any method can be applied once you get a candidate to put on your watch list from this filter.

I call it "RAW BREAKOUT"

Fetcher[high above CWMA(PP,60,1) and low below CWMA(PP,60,1)
and high above CWMA(PP,30,1) and Low below CWMA(PP,30,1)
and high above CWMA(PP,20,1) and Low below CWMA(PP,20,1)
and high above CWMA(PP,12,1) and Low below CWMA(PP,12,1)
and high above CWMA(PP,6,1) and Low below CWMA(PP,6,1)
and high above CWMA(PP,4,1) and Low below CWMA(PP,4,1)
and Not OTCBB and volume above 250,000
and average volume(20) above 250,000
]



Technically, it should be "high above OR equal" and "low below OR equal" but SF does have its limitations. Perhaps one of you more skilled than I can update it so the "OR" condition is applied. I recall seeing something about that a while back but it's beyond me.

Obviously, you can change some parameters and filter to include OTCBB, only Optionables, price range, volume, etc.

Do a "WEEKLY" version and you will see some very significant results!

Enjoy, and good trading.

Opa.


Announcements · New Functions: Custom EMA and Custom Weighted SMA
AntNet
msg #32190
5/26/2004 2:31:53 PM

Thanks SF!
I'm guessing the "Custom Volume Weighted MA" (CVWMA) and "Custom Displaced MA" (CDMA) can't be far behind???


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