StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Win Rate<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
roca1018
155 posts
msg #152589
Ignore roca1018
6/10/2020 8:31:21 AM

There are so many interesting filters here. I appreciate the work of many posters. Are there any filters with a win rate consistently over 80%?

Thanks

Rich

Cheese
891 posts
msg #152590
Ignore Cheese
6/10/2020 10:37:47 AM

@Rich

You are right. There are many interesting filters from many generous members,
and I am also grateful.

But over the years, Kevin_in_GA and many experienced good traders here and
outside of the forum have cautioned us about claims of high win rates, and
told us to pay more attention to expectancy.

Snake oil cons and narcissists tend to emphasize win rates.

George Soros summed it up this way: It's how much we win when we win,
not how often we win.

I wish four was still active, He would post some links to discussions of win rates
and expectancy here and in other sites.



shillllihs
5,402 posts
msg #152591
Ignore shillllihs
6/10/2020 11:05:12 AM

This reminds me of a poem for the feeble huddled masses:

One night I dreamed a dream.
As I was walking along the beach with my Kevin.
Across the dark sky flashed scenes from my life.
For each scene, I noticed two sets of footprints in the sand,
One belonging to me and one to my Kevin.

After the last scene of my life flashed before me,
I looked back at the footprints in the sand.
I noticed that at many times along the path of my life,
especially at the very lowest and saddest times,
there was only one set of footprints.

This really troubled me, so I asked the Kevin about it.
"Kevin, you said once I decided to follow you,
You'd walk with me all the way.
But I noticed that during the saddest and most troublesome times of my life,
there was only one set of footprints.
I don't understand why, when I needed You the most, You would leave me."

Kevin whispered softly in my ear, "My precious dependent gambler, I love you and will never leave you
Never, ever, during your trials and testings.
When you saw only one set of footprints,
It was then that I carried you."

Mactheriverrat
2,482 posts
msg #152596
Ignore Mactheriverrat
6/10/2020 9:52:06 PM

Win rate depends on one's buy and sell triggers

IMHO.

styliten
53 posts
msg #152597
Ignore styliten
modified
6/10/2020 10:26:03 PM

@ Rich

Do you have good eyesight, PHYSICALLY and figuratively?

It very much depended upon HOW fast you can pull the trigger in both BUYING and SELLING. Take DPW and TRUE for example, if you bought a few day before 6/10/2020, you've got big winners; however, your % of gain depended very much on your exact timing of sell on those 2 tickers. Also, if you jumped on DPW shortly after the market opened on 6/10/2020, you are LIKELY to see your investment (aka gamble capital) cut in half by the end of the closing bell. Admitted, these are extreme cases, but they highlighted the very nature of all "effective" filters in general: they can be extremely time sensitive and tend to have very short expiration date, sometimes as short as a few hours or even minutes (the latter often seen in the case of currency trading). After all, price is always moving, unlike sitting duck patiently waiting for someone to move close to poach it. To be a successful "poacher", you'll have to out-smart your prey and anticipate their moves rather than just reacting to them.

Sometimes, it's MUCH easier to check EVERYTHING that's moving up for the day, 10 to 15 times PER DAY when the stock exchanges are open--that is up to 2~3 times per hour. This way, you'll get a VERY good sense on what's moving and what's LIKELY to happen before the trend is strong enough to trigger any predefined set of criteria--like catching EA and TTWO on 6/5/2020 rather than days later--but if you can't monitor the stocks that often, then all bets are off.

Here is a simple illustration on how to check ALL NASDAQ 100 stocks that are moving up at least 2% for today:

==================================================
nasdaq 100
day change > 2

DO NOT DRAW day change

chart-time is 12
and draw cema(ma(2), 8)
and draw cema(ma(2) add to 0, 8)

==================================================

As you can see from this illustration, the same info is displayed both on the main price chart (candlestick is the default chart-type) as well as a sub-chart (line-chart) immediately below volume. This minimizes the chance for misreading or oversight.


roca1018
155 posts
msg #152599
Ignore roca1018
6/11/2020 9:09:38 AM

Thanks for the responses thus far. I have used the slow stochastics (5,1) when it crossed above 20 with
stable companies with some success but have not tracked the actual win rate. Also the $NYMO at extremes
(+100/-100) has been useful for going long or short with SPY. I have not fared as well with stocks that have
surged in the recent past. I could probably live with trading SPY with the right indicators.

Thanks

Rich

jimvin
145 posts
msg #152612
Ignore jimvin
6/11/2020 9:55:57 PM

Leaving out the big boys from previous generations (Jesse Livermore, Nicholas Darvas) the fairly recent crop of BMOCs (yes, the vast majority are dudes) have a win rate of around 60%. (I did a study of the win-records of the heavy-weights in grad' school 20 years ago). I bested them in the 6-months before the 2000 mega-meltdown, but that was living in the Land of Oz.
Since then I've come close to 80% in short sprints of a few months, but as the last 2-days show, its very difficult to sustain that record over any significant stretch of time....
Validea Capitol Management, an investment firm HQ'd at Tyson's Corner (Va.) offers "A Digital Advisor that Invests Using the Strategies of Wall Street Legends"; you might check with them to see their win-rate baseline.
(Disclosure: I have neither an account, nor employment history with that organization, nor any other interaction with them other than noticing the building they reside in when, on rare occasion, I visit the near--by shopping mall).
In any case, I wish you luck in your quest; please keep us posted on the resutls -




roca1018
155 posts
msg #152613
Ignore roca1018
6/12/2020 7:36:44 AM

Thanks again. The $NYMO reached an extreme on 6/8 @ +112 and I shorted the SPY for 2 days closing
on 6/10. These plays (extremes =100/-100) don't happen that often.

Rich

Cheese
891 posts
msg #152623
Ignore Cheese
modified
6/13/2020 3:07:17 PM

roca1018 6/11/2020 9:09:38 AM

Thanks for the responses thus far. I have used the slow stochastics (5,1) when it crossed above 20 with
stable companies with some success but have not tracked the actual win rate. Also the $NYMO at extremes
(+100/-100) has been useful for going long or short with SPY. I have not fared as well with stocks that have
surged in the recent past. I could probably live with trading SPY with the right indicators.
==================================================================================

@roca1018

Great approach

Your strategies using slow stoch %K(5,1) and $NYMO are two of the "best simple" winning systems.
Money manager and top chartist author Joanne Klein has shown that %K(5,1) really works for years.
Traders like Tuan Pham and Miyagi have used $NYMO with success.

Rich, are you a paid subscriber to Stochcharts? I used to be a paid subscriber at one level below PRO.
I quit after I couldn't figure out how to use RRG as leading signals. Have you had success
with RRG for trading?

Thank you, Rich



shillllihs
5,402 posts
msg #152624
Ignore shillllihs
6/13/2020 4:25:42 PM

I like a high win rate too but what counts is how much you make on each winning trade as opposed to how much you lose on losing trades.
I have 2 systems on another site ranked 19th & 46th out of about 700 systems that have a 43% and 50% win rate, returning about 100% a year compounded and that’s only because my subs like a low drawdown. I can make 150-500% if I went all out with a low win rate. This takes years to get accustomed to.

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