StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · * GRIPE *<< 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 >>Post Follow-up
Nobody
83 posts
msg #151203
Ignore Nobody
3/13/2020 12:11:03 PM

Rate cut on already low rates and Trillion injection....they will inflate out of this

karennma
7,714 posts
msg #151205
Ignore karennma
modified
3/13/2020 1:52:31 PM

Too many rate cuts and Treasury infusions are like too much BOTOX ....
E-v-e-n-t-u-a-l-l-y, things are gonna get ugly.

(There was a pic of an ugly lady here with too much botox, but I don't know how to post pics.
And that's a good thing. LOL!)

Too much of anything .. is a bad thing.

karennma
7,714 posts
msg #151222
Ignore karennma
3/14/2020 11:20:38 AM

karennma
7,525 posts
msg #150130 1/5/2020 7:36:27 PM

@ Cheese,
I'll tell you something funny .... My neighborhood has a chat group; it must have over 1,000 members, most of whom are lurkers.
About 3 weeks ago, someone inquired about starting an investment club. Then many others enthusiastically chimed in. Some posted about shares they'd bought 10-20 years. (i.e. 10 shares of NFLX).
I remember thinking to myself, these people are just average joe schmucks. When they start thinking about getting IN the market; it's LATE!
====================================

1/5/2020
Yep. THAT was a tell-tale sign .. and I knew it!

History repeats itself .. but worse.

Not Funny ...






Cheese
729 posts
msg #151223
Ignore Cheese
3/14/2020 2:05:59 PM

karennma ,
okay, that was in January.
People who buy at the top may sell at the bottom.
What is that group doing now?

Thanks.

karennma
7,714 posts
msg #151224
Ignore karennma
modified
3/14/2020 3:44:48 PM

@ Cheese,
This is JMHO ...
Most people who have high-paying jobs and work 40 hrs./week don't have time to analyze this stuff.
They're just gonna hold "for the long term".
In a retirement account, their funds are reinvested every pay check.
They don't know what price individual stocks were when their retirements were funded.
All they know is, it's down and will go back up -- when the pandemic is over.
HOWEVER ...,
For peeps like us, who are on this board and watch this crap like it's life or death, (LOL!) what I'm worried about are TWO things:
1- Upcoming bad earnings seasons due to a global collapse caused by a pandemic.
2- A pending recession because of #1. (which has NOTHING to do with Prz Trump and everything to do with China.)

Which brings me to two words, which DON'T mean the same thing.
"Capitulation" and "Re-capitulation" (not "recapitulation", as in "Rhapsody in Blue", or Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" .)

Capitulation - like yesterday; the NAZ was up 731 pts. so, peeps are "reloading" or "buying the dips" (refunding their retirement acc'ts via auto-deposit).
The pitch would go something like this: "If you liked ROKU at $125, you'll love it @ $74".
Given that ROKU was $175 at one time, $74 is a steal. Right? Suppose I buy it at $74 and over the summer it goes down to $40 ...?
I know what you're thinking. That's unlikely to happen because the virus will be dead by the summer.
That might be true, but will the recession be dead? Or will it just be the beginning of an unforeseen repercussion due to a global crash started by China?
What about .. "Re-capitulation" - a major continuing crash .. like the dotcom bomb; where you think the sh*+ is "over" when it ain't. Back then, it wasn't over until MSTR went from $600 to $4. Or what about 2008, when it wasn't over until people couldn't pay their mortgages because their company was shut down for 3 months; or an AIRLINE employee was laid off (or took a pay cut) because of a virus - that they NEVER caught.
Let's say hypothetically, every stock that starts with a "2", - 6 months from now, starts with a "1".
AAPL - 298 = 198
DOW - 29,000 = 19,000
AMZN - 2200 = 1200
AMZN @ 1200 seems pretty radical, but I shop on AMZN weekly and most of that stuff comes from CHINA.
Speaking of "China" - - Yesterday I bought some apple juice from WMT. Guess where the concentrate comes from? No, not the state of Washington (as I thought), but CHINA!
SHW is one of my favorite stocks. But I'm not buying PAINT @ $600/shr.
How about buying SHW @ 1/2 that price? If we go into a recession, people won't be buying new houses, they'll be painting their existing homes .. with cheap paint.
Look at BA. A few months ago, it was $350. I posted here several months back (jokingly), I'd consider buying it @ $170. Where is it now? (smile)
BA - that's a sad story. I don't even want to think about. .. SMH ... Possibly "BAQ".
Do you think given the current travel situation, airlines are gonna be looking to buy some BA planes? YOU look at their charts and tell me. (I already posted them.)
Back to .. "re-capitulation". It's basically a bumpy ride to hopelessness = bagholders selling @ rock bottom. That's re-capitulation.
Right now, we're in capitulation.
Frankly, IF I bought anything now and it went lower, I'd be p*ssed.

But WDIK ... in my warped little mind?

BTW, my watchlist has now gone from 34 stocks (which are all in the negative since I bot & sold them in 2018) down to 3.
and, BTW, at this point in my life, a REAL ESTATE crash would be my preferred market to enter.
Stocks? Nahhhh ... no good.
Honestly, I despise "gambling".

(Yeah, I know, this was long - but I was doing yard work in between paragraphs. LOL!)

Cheese
729 posts
msg #151226
Ignore Cheese
3/14/2020 5:58:10 PM

Thank you for your explanations and insights, karenma.
Very helpful.

If you are interested in real estate, you may want to spend more time lurking SlopeofHope.
It has a few members who from time to time share info about real estate investments
(properties and strategies). This real estate stuff is out of my league so I don't know its
real value even though I've found it interesting.


Mactheriverrat
2,343 posts
msg #151228
Ignore Mactheriverrat
3/14/2020 10:31:44 PM

If I'm not mistaken one of slopeofhope blog posters Tim Knight was a old SF poster.

Cheese
729 posts
msg #151229
Ignore Cheese
3/14/2020 11:23:47 PM

Interesting. I didn't know that.

karennma
7,714 posts
msg #151232
Ignore karennma
3/15/2020 2:55:09 PM

REPO to the rescue!

Don't Worry. Everything's Fine. CLICK here

svtsnakebitn
71 posts
msg #151234
Ignore svtsnakebitn
3/15/2020 7:19:38 PM

FED cutting rates to near zero - bringing back QE 700B in asset purchases. This is just starting - FED has lost control.

That's almost $2T in the last month.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · * GRIPE *<< 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 >>Post Follow-up

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