StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 12 >>Post Follow-up
Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150325
Ignore Village Elder
1/14/2020 3:13:12 PM

Other than the adjustment for market capitalization you suggested previously, I agree. No need (for now) to tweak anything until enough trades are closed to really see how things are working.

miketranz
807 posts
msg #150331
Ignore miketranz
modified
1/14/2020 8:12:18 PM

I'm starting to like this system.A couple of real nice intra day hits today.Thanks for the education.Miketranz...

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150334
Ignore Village Elder
1/15/2020 8:29:53 AM

Over the long term I doubt the stats will be as good as the past few days, but thanks for the comments. Shorting stocks like these does contain a high level of volatility and risk, and there will probably be more than a few spectacular flubs along the way.

Looks like LJPC will probably close out as a loss since as you move forward the ROC(5,1) will drop below 50 at a price that is still higher than your entry - just math and time working against the reversion. That is why I was thinking about the 3 day hold as a way to let losing trades go and move on rather than hold onto losers and take even more punishment.

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150367
Ignore Village Elder
modified
1/16/2020 12:26:16 PM

Based on exit rules, all current open trades will be closed at the end of today - LJPC and NLS will close out as the first losses, but yesterday and today's action has reduced those losses considerably.

Looking at the filter results so far, I would not trade either ADAP or NK as the ROC(5,1) rule will almost surely be triggered with a day of entering the trade, which will increase the risk of an exit triggering too quickly to make a profit. A BIG prior move within the current 5 day window (which we caught and made a profit on in both of these cases) needs to be considered in light of the math used in exit rule 2.

novacane32000
310 posts
msg #150398
Ignore novacane32000
1/17/2020 7:16:48 PM

Thanks for sharing Village Elder

Question. With no stop on these orders, it seems eventually there will be a 100% move or even a 200% move against a trade resulting in as much as a $20K loss if you wait to exit end of day.

I understand the reluctance to use a stop intraday as it often results in premature exits from eventual winners.

Thoughts?

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150400
Ignore Village Elder
1/18/2020 12:11:03 AM

Trade it with whatever cautions you see fit. For the present and foreseeable future I'll continue to use the simple 2 exit rules currently in place - remember that this is still a test of the system, and I am doing it with full transparency on trades so that folks can come to their own conclusions about it.

chi-town
42 posts
msg #150402
Ignore chi-town
1/18/2020 4:37:35 PM

Hi Village,
Do you use market on open or a limit order?
Thanks

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150411
Ignore Village Elder
1/19/2020 9:04:14 AM

The system is being paper-traded right now, so I am simply using the open price as the entry. When I trade from this I have used a market order, which gives you the entry (versus a limit order which may or may not fill). You lose some on the bid/ask spread but that is par for the course.

I have also run into the "not enough shares available to short" message trying to trade this filter in my account. Happens occasionally to anyone trying to short stocks or ETFs.

chi-town
42 posts
msg #150419
Ignore chi-town
1/20/2020 8:53:33 AM

Got it,
Thanks


dtatu
113 posts
msg #150423
Ignore dtatu
modified
1/20/2020 9:37:03 PM

I agree with the post of Novacane 32000:
- if you do not test it with STOPS , you should never trade it.
We have some recent examples of 1 SINGLE FATAL TRADE, after long lasting winners:
- Kevin with XIV
- and the Famous : Optionsellers.com: one single Fatal NatGas trade blew up a successful Firm after 20 yrs?( naked options)
-https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/12/18/the-optionsellers-debacle/

One should NEVER be exposed to the upside with no stops, especially in these volatile stocks.
Q: is there an inverse system , in which the downside risk is maximum ZERO?

StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 12 >>Post Follow-up

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