StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 12 >>Post Follow-up
miketranz
810 posts
msg #150287
Ignore miketranz
1/13/2020 8:23:37 AM

Village,I'll be following your 1/13 picks today.Looks interesting.Thanks for sharing.Miketranz...

miketranz
810 posts
msg #150303
Ignore miketranz
1/13/2020 9:01:17 PM

Village,I have a few questions after following your picks.1)Are you entering "pre-market" or market order on open? 2)Are you executing a trade even though a stock gaps way up,assuming you're entering pre-market? 3)How far will you allow a stock to run against your initial open position? I noticed on the CPAH trade,the stock open @4.10 then traded up to 6.00 On 2440 shares,you're out close to 5k at that point.Considering this particular stocks volatility,it could easily move 2-3 points intraday.At what point do you scratch the trade? Trading volatile momentum stocks and shorting them,in real time with real money is not only tricky business,it's also very risky business.However,I like the rules and trade conditions parameters.It's nice to see a well defined set-up that can be applied mechanically with strict rules to follow.They can keep you out of trouble to some extent.Overall,looks like the stats back the filter,if you can handle the risk.Best,Miketranz...

shillllihs
5,433 posts
msg #150304
Ignore shillllihs
1/13/2020 9:18:01 PM

This system is probably just an exhibition in the guise of being a real system like that other guy.
Several reasons why which I can't believe no one picks up on.
No shares availability.
Heavy borrow costs.
If you're trading 50K you would need an 8 to 1 ratio in reserve or 400K as a buffer to be safe.
You can lose everything on a bad spike including your house and cars.



shillllihs
5,433 posts
msg #150305
Ignore shillllihs
1/13/2020 9:22:09 PM

This is why nobody actually makes good money doing this and no one out here actually trades too much on each short. This will go the way of every other system that has failed at the back of the stock pick threads. Especially that DMA farce.

KSK8
453 posts
msg #150307
Ignore KSK8
1/13/2020 10:54:00 PM

Ignore him, he'll pass. If he has sincere question's he'll ask politely.

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150312
Ignore Village Elder
1/14/2020 7:44:25 AM

@Miketranz - the system does not buy premarket nor does it exit for any reason other than the three triggers I listed in the first post on that thread. The entries and exits are based only on the open and close prices for the day. No other timing or stop loss strategies are being used. I don't care what happens intraday.

@shilllihs - The filter picks high liquidity stocks at $3 or above, but that does not mean shares are readily available to short. This is all explained in the first post on that thread. As to whether or not it delivers ... that is what the results will show, right? I think your concerns will be either confirmed or not after about 50 closed trades.

@KSK8 - I notice that this system often pulls out the same trade opportunities as yours. Good luck to both of us going forward, and as I said I respect that you put the trades out there and hold yourself accountable for the results to the forum.

shillllihs
5,433 posts
msg #150320
Ignore shillllihs
1/14/2020 12:26:30 PM

No doubt that this approach is a little more practical than that other guys system which is just a video game. He says it's for entertainment purposes yet claims huge profits, very delusional. Just concerned with those occasional spikes and the practicality of the system if no shares available.
You can't use your full capacity if shares are not available, and there are borrowing fees.
And not clear if it's a hypothetical system or an actual one.
No big deal.


KSK8
453 posts
msg #150322
Ignore KSK8
1/14/2020 1:01:40 PM

Village Elder,

Here's an indicator that may be of use for you:

Fetcher[

set{true_range, average true range(1)}
set{ema_true_range, CEMA(average true range(1), 14)}
set{volatility_ratio, true_range / ema_true_range}
add column volatility_ratio

]



It's a great utility when anticipating volatility for the next day. I use it all the time so let me know if you find any merit to it. Credits to Chetron since he's the one who first posted it.

Over 3 = high volatility
Under 3 = moderate volatility

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150323
Ignore Village Elder
1/14/2020 1:49:40 PM

If I make any adjustments to the system it will likely be in the "three day max hold" exit trigger. I put that in without any real backtest to see if it makes the system better. I think I will likely drop it and use the "ROC(5,1) crosses below 50" rule for any trades that are carried beyond the end-of-day close. It will probably tie up some of the equity a bit longer than what I might like, but gives a parabolic move time to revert back to earth.

KSK8
453 posts
msg #150324
Ignore KSK8
1/14/2020 2:59:21 PM

It's not meant to be used as a filter necessarily, more of a gauge of potential volatility for the next day. In terms of the system, I think what you have so far is pretty good so I wouldn't tweak the filtering.

StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 12 >>Post Follow-up

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