StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Aggregate Risk<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
Thrice
3 posts
msg #149024
Ignore Thrice
8/31/2019 6:21:01 PM

Hi All!

I am super new to our Filters and query language here (I do know SQL etc). The question I am looking to answer with a filter is:

Goal: If I invest in a Penny Stock today what is the percent chance that the investment will meet or surpass a 15% gain within 6 months?

Hoping to create a filter(s) that can answer this. Not sure what the limits are on filters. Anyone know if this is possible? Can we only query closes? Thank you in advance :)

xarlor
114 posts
msg #149025
Ignore xarlor
8/31/2019 6:57:17 PM

Fetcher[
chart-time is 7 months
close 6 months ago < .10
date offset 6 months
sort by column 5
]



~550 losers
~50 break even
~350 winners

So roughly:

58% losers
5% break even
37% winners



Thrice
3 posts
msg #149029
Ignore Thrice
9/1/2019 11:35:21 AM

Thank you Xarlor!

Would you be able to please breakdown your filter? I want to understand the logic if possible.


Submit
Fetcher[
chart-time is 7 months
close 6 months ago < .10
date offset 6 months
sort by column 5
]




xarlor
114 posts
msg #149030
Ignore xarlor
9/1/2019 3:22:21 PM

Just did a hypothetical study. Bought any stock that was under 10 cents six months ago. Sort that by performance to this day (6 months later).

On the results page, I have each page list 100 stocks per page. Counted the number of pages that had a negative performance (1 page = 100 stocks). Same for those that had a 0.00% performance and those that had a positive performance. Those are the numbers I listed.

four
5,087 posts
msg #149031
Ignore four
modified
9/2/2019 1:44:00 PM

Thrice,

How will your losses be considered?
1. Time exit
2. dollar exit
3. percent exit
4. ATR exit
5. Moving average exit
...

How will gains be considered?

What percent/dollar of portfolio is at risk?

four
5,087 posts
msg #149032
Ignore four
9/2/2019 1:44:56 PM

Guide is here
https://www3.stockfetcher.com/download/sfuserguide2_0.pdf

Cheese
457 posts
msg #149033
Ignore Cheese
9/2/2019 3:57:13 PM

@four wrote:
How will your losses be considered?
1. Time exit
2. dollar exit
3. percent exit
4. ATR exit
5. Moving average exit
...

How will gains be considered?

What percent/dollar of portfolio is at risk?
==========================================================

@four,
All great and important questions.
You are an experienced trader.
What are some of the great suggestions you may have?
Thank you.

four
5,087 posts
msg #149034
Ignore four
modified
9/2/2019 4:40:59 PM

Cheese,
Start with...

Investigate life insurance or other "guarantees" to take care of those you leave behind. This will help you and the others to reduce anxiety. Will, trusts, power of attorney... the overall plan. https://www.estateplanning.com/What-is-Estate-Planning/

Create and understand your balance sheet and income statement. https://www.richdad.com/cash-flow

Understand the percentage on the remaining amount after a loss must be a higher value than the loss that occurred. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Percentage_gain_and_loss

Understand that what you want - day trade, may not be who you are - work 50 hours a week and have a family. Be realistic. Align who you are with the reality of your individual situation. Recognize when things change and the strategy may need to change.

Stay away from costs that are extra. Vanguard, as an example, offers the etfs and mutual funds with low fees/costs.

Do your homework (fundamentals and/or technicals) as Jim Cramer would say. Do your research. https://www.thestreet.com/video/jim-cramer-company-information-when-doing-homework-15025914

Part of knowing who you are and researching is the first question.. Are you better off making money outside of the stock and/or bond market with a side hustle?

Owning 1000s of stocks is not being diversified. The last few months of 2018 saw a 15%+ drop in stocks. Of course, the depression also adds weight to this argument.

Ignore others willing to boast about unverified gains. All that matters is your "Excel sheet".

Most lose money in the market... What is your edge??
https://www.aei.org/publication/more-evidence-that-its-very-hard-to-beat-the-market-over-time-95-of-financial-professionals-cant-do-it/

Be aware a $1 gain in the market is more than a $1 from a job---no Social Security tax on gains. Maybe take less risk that you thought you were going to anyways.

If your retirement account really does grow.. prepare for large RMDs that might put you in the next tax bracket. Remember Social Security can be taxed.

Paper trade first.

Don't live like a millionaire until you are a Multimillionaire.


Cheese
457 posts
msg #149035
Ignore Cheese
9/2/2019 5:26:42 PM

All great suggestions.
Thank you, four.

four
5,087 posts
msg #149039
Ignore four
9/3/2019 8:13:30 PM

Thanks Cheese

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Aggregate Risk<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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