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15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142628
Ignore 15minofPham
3/6/2018 11:12:27 PM

Who needs Google when you have Four. From now on I'm going to ask, "Have you Four it?" lol

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142629
Ignore 15minofPham
3/6/2018 11:47:09 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - HPQ & AMAT

NOTE: Due to Gary Cohn's resignation, the futures are bleeding red right now. We'll have to see if the market can recover. If not, these two will feel the pain!

We have a two for one today. HPQ: Premium of $2.4 million on aggregate buys of 11,484 of the 3/29/18 $22 Call for an average of $2.17 with stock at an average of $24.03. It's at resistance on the daily and smart money thinks it's going to punch through it. Weekly is showing bullish MACD cross-over. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 94-6 and bullish order sentiment was 94%, well above its 30-day average of 63%.

AMAT: Premium of $2.4 million on aggregate buys of 8,080 of the 4/20/18 $60 Call for an average of $2.64 with stock at an average of $63.01. It too is at resistance on the daily and hoping the third time is the charm in breaking through $60. Just like HPQ, it had a weekly bullish MACD cross-over too. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 82-18 and bullish order sentiment was 94%, well above its 30-day average of 69%.

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Monday's spotlight - WYNN, $3 million, 4,478 5/18/18 $175 Call for $6.84, Stock $162.02

Another small move but the Call's gain is now at 29%
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AMD 4/20/18 11 Put hit both the 50% & 75% target in six trading days. It should hit the final 100% target during tomorrow's morning bloodbath. The Calls, on the other hand, will hope the damages won't be irreparable.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings

BoCap
18 posts
msg #142643
Ignore BoCap
3/7/2018 3:29:41 PM

Hello Pham,
Do you mind if i can contact you by email Or text ? I'd like to ask you a few questions ... I'm Viet also.. :)

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142653
Ignore 15minofPham
3/8/2018 12:03:55 AM

Hi Bo,
Not at all. I think you still have my email? If so, email me your questions and I'll do my best to help you.

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142654
Ignore 15minofPham
3/8/2018 12:21:11 AM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - CRC

Premium of $1.2 million on a buy of 10,000 of the 5/18/18 $16 Call for $1.20 with stock at $13.63. This aggressive buy is that the daily Mendoza Line, usually a good risk-reward play. Breakeven of $17.20 would bring it back to the daily 21 EMA which should be very doable given the 9 weeks time frame. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 97-3 and bullish order sentiment was an almost perfect 99%, easily above its 30-day average of 73%.

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Tuesday's spotlight - HPQ, $2.4 million, 11,484 3/29/18 $22 Call for $2.17, Stock $24.03
AMAT, $2.4 million, 8,080 4/20/18 $60 Call for $2.64, Stock $63.01

A nice recovery from the gap down saved these two from finishing in the red.
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As expected the opening gap down helped AMD 4/20/18 11 Put hit the final 100% target. However, the 4/11/18 11 Put is in danger as its sentiment has flipped from bearish to bullish. IWM Put looks like to be a loss if it climbs above the daily cloud.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings

shillllihs
5,403 posts
msg #142655
Ignore shillllihs
3/8/2018 1:24:50 AM

I think the returns are fair, but one would seemingly have to be an acrobat and use exceptional form to achieve these results with all the rules and to get the right price but I may be wrong. It kind of reminds me of those acts you used to see in the 70s with the guy spinning all the plates at once.

WantingLittle
11 posts
msg #142662
Ignore WantingLittle
3/8/2018 1:20:46 PM

Would be nice if you could substantiate that comment. I'm not seeing acrobatic skills here.

shillllihs
5,403 posts
msg #142664
Ignore shillllihs
modified
3/8/2018 1:52:43 PM

As compared to buy n hold or swing trading i think it is.
I’d rather follow a filter that says, buy, sell.

You search daily for new prospects, then you sift through data to make sure the fundamentals are all in tact, news etc. then you have to manage multiple positions, not sure if stops and limits are used or not.
Seems a little tricky with if at 97% and it drops to under 75% etc, is there constant monitoring. And all this while using what are commonly known as gimmicks(options) which seem so erratic. And while you’re doing all this research, is price increasing since others are on to this, and are you getting in at the right time? Just seems like a headache, but everyone’s different and strictly my opinion.

I do think it was an interesting study and have seen as much as I wanted to to satisfy my curiosity.

shillllihs
5,403 posts
msg #142665
Ignore shillllihs
3/8/2018 2:11:01 PM

Forgot to add that being smart money, I expected a much higher win rate and maybe some large trades are purposely made to throw the public off.

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142672
Ignore 15minofPham
3/8/2018 3:12:40 PM

Shils,
I've actually simplified this much more than what I do with my own account. The purpose is to see if following smart money can get you at least 50% so that's why I set this as the first profit target. There's only four stop losses. One at 50%, 75%, 100% and -50%. You don't want to lose your profits so in my portfolio, I'll either set a stop loss AFTER it's reached these levels or a trailing stop. The only difference is there's an automated sell at -50%. My entire portfolio is automated so it might seem confusing at first for someone who doesn't trade options often, but after awhile you get really bored due to everything being automated.

With all this being said, options aren't for everyone. You're witnessing first hand how volatility and choppiness in the past six weeks have made it a very difficult environment, especially for options. Money management and reading the charts are critical. Don't follow blindly on every smart money play, but instead wait for a pullback as they are inevitable lately. Once the market goes back to a bullish trend, then you can jump in right away as pullbacks are far & few in between.

I see numerous ways to make money on SF as everyone has their own niche. This is mine. :-)

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