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15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142476
Ignore 15minofPham
2/26/2018 10:42:43 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - AMD

Premium of $1.7 million on 41,000 of the 4/20/18 $11 Put for $0.43 with stock at $12.13. This was a total of two purchases, one for 20,000 and other for 21,000. Monthly chart shows sideways action for a year and it doesn't appear it's going to break out of this range anytime soon, even with this Put play. Total option volume Put/Call ratio was 65-35 while bullish order sentiment was 32%, below its 30-day average of 59%.

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Friday's spotlight - A, $5.5 million, 35,796 3/16/18 $70 Put for $1.55, Stock $70.58

Strange that OI is not showing the buy volume from Friday even though there wasn't a big sell today. Strength of market today kept it from falling further.

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EXEL is reporting earnings tonight so per our rule it had to be sold for a small loss even though expiration is still three months away. CARS is the only open position left from January. Good news is that both INTC and EEM (2/14) are guaranteed winners as they've hit our first profit target of 50%.

I've added totals for each month and grand total. I also added a Gain/Loss dollar column to show minimum profits as we automatically sell at 100%. This is to simplify bookkeeping. In real life one could either let it run until a reversal candle or sell half at 100% then put a trailing stop.

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The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threatens to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings

WantingLittle
11 posts
msg #142494
Ignore WantingLittle
2/27/2018 8:17:37 PM

What is the most number of positions you've had open at any one point in time?

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142497
Ignore 15minofPham
2/27/2018 9:33:07 PM

I have between 20-25 at any given time. A mix of following the smart money, technical, weeklies & long term.

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142498
Ignore 15minofPham
2/27/2018 10:07:45 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - STZ

Premium of $11.8 million on 8,820 of the 7/20/18 $220 Call for $13.47 with stock at $218.07. This was an aggregate of multiple purchases. Weekly chart shows sideways action over past 24 weeks with the win-loss record 12-12 over this time span so smart money thinks it's close to breaking out of this range. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 81-19 while bullish order sentiment was 74%, slightly above its 30-day average of 69%.

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Monday's spotlight - AMD, $1.7 million, 41,000 4/20/18 $11 Put for $0.43, Stock $12.13

Nearly gave all gains back along with the market's fade, but not enough to help the Put.

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Maddening constant fade in February doesn't give the Calls in the portfolio enough time for traction. Intraday sell rules came into play for INTC & EEM. The former hit above +100% in the morning then faded so it was sold. The latter gapped down at the open forcing a sell at +23% since it was above +50% the previous day.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142512
Ignore 15minofPham
2/28/2018 10:17:59 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - M

Premium of $2.9 million on 9,569 of the 5/18/18 $30 Put for $3.05 with stock at $29.31. This was an aggregate of multiple purchases. Gapped up on earnings yesterday but immediately faded after hitting a high of $31.04. It tried to close above $30 today but again thwarted. Smart money thinks third time won't be the charm either. Breakeven of $26.95 brings it to the low of the body candle of 2/26. Interesting that total option volume Put/Call ratio was only 34-66 while bullish order sentiment was 37%, well below its 30-day average of 64%.

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Tuesday's spotlight - STZ, $11.8 million, 8,820 7/20/18 $220 Call for $13.47, Stock $218.07

Faded along with the market which made the Call go into the red.
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Another day, another fade. CAT took the brunt today as it went from +44% to -10.50%. The M.O. lately is to fade at resistance be it short or long term.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142543
Ignore 15minofPham
3/1/2018 9:56:17 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - AMD

Premium of $6.3 million on 110,242 of the 4/11/18 $11 Put for $.60 with stock at $58.58. This was an aggregate of multiple purchases. Smart money once again is picking on AMD as this is the second time (other was 2/26) it appears in the portfolio. Hundreds of purchases were at the Ask or above today. It closed at the 50 DMA, but clearly big boys think this is just a temporary rest stop. Total option volume Put/Call ratio was 83-17 while bullish order sentiment was a measly 5%, well below its 30-day average of 58%.

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Wednesday's spotlight - M, $2.9 million, 9569 5/18/18 $30 Put for $3.05, Stock $29.31

Held up surprisingly well in lieu of another market meltdown which could spell trouble for the Put when the market rally.
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Another day of violent selling was too much for WMT as it hit the -50% stop loss. SINA is a hair length above the same level and should falter tomorrow in any market weakness. Needless to say, Puts in the portfolio are reaping the benefits, especially A which is now at +80%. It's guaranteed a win at +75% if it pulls back tomorrow.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings


15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142564
Ignore 15minofPham
3/3/2018 12:51:34 AM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - WYNN

Premium of $5.8 million on an aggregate of 6,477 of the 5/18/18 $170 Call for an average of $9.47 with stock at an average of $160.48. Smart money thinks Steve Wynn's problems are in the past and today's purchases occurred with WYNN at the 100 DMA. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 64-36 and bullish order sentiment was 67%, above its 30-day average of 57%.

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Wednesday's spotlight - AMD, $6.3 million, 110,242 4/11/18 $11 Put for $0.60, Stock $58.58

Recovered from the initial 30-minute gap down which made the Put go slightly in the red.
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A hit the final profit target of +100%. CAT, on the other hand, fell hard for a fourth consecutive day and is in serious jeopardy of hitting the -50% stop loss. Amazingly SINA saved itself from the same fate, for now.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings


mahkoh
1,064 posts
msg #142592
Ignore mahkoh
3/5/2018 2:55:38 PM

4275 WYNN May 18 175 calls bought for a total premium of $ 2.8 mln. The stock was at 161.79 during the trade and has already moved up 2.5 % since. Earnings are due Apr 24.

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142597
Ignore 15minofPham
3/5/2018 10:40:05 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - WYNN

Premium of $3 million on aggregate buys of 4,478 of the 5/18/18 $175 Call for an average of $6.84 with stock at an average of $162.02. For the second day in a row smart money thinks Wynn will be a win as they loaded up again, this time at the 175 strike even though big day in the market didn't translate into a bigger move. Breakeven of $181.84 will bring it past the February 7 high. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was again 64-36 and bullish order sentiment was 78%, well above its 30-day average of 54%.

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Friday's spotlight - WYNN, $5.8 million, 6,477 5/18/18 $170 Call for $9.47, Stock $160.48

Call hasn't moved much as it stands at +7.18%
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CARS is reporting earnings tomorrow morning so it was sold at a loss of -21.88%. This also closes out the picks for January. The win-loss record ended at 13-12 after a big run. Profits for the month though was $7,032.69 so not bad for one month's work. A reminder real profits would've been much higher but for record keeping uniformity, everything is sold at +100%.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. The purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threaten to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93% but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings


four
5,087 posts
msg #142626
Ignore four
modified
3/6/2018 9:07:18 PM

So, Delaney offers recommendations from his colleague, Katherine Fogertey, a Goldman options strategist.

Fogertey suggests you buy Micron 23-March $53 and $56 call spread, which would pay out $1.06.

According to Fogertey, “investors who would like to express a bullish view into earnings but would like to have limited downside risks can buy call spreads instead of shares into earnings."

"Call spread buyers risk losing net premium paid if shares close below the lower strike price at expiration and cap their upside participation if shares trade to the upper call strike or higher by that same period."

Micron stock today is up $1.98, or 3.8%, at $54.02.
==
https://www.barrons.com/articles/micron-if-youre-nervous-goldman-has-an-options-plan-for-you-1520366268?mod=hp_RTA&
==
http://www.theoptionsguide.com/bull-call-spread.aspx
==
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/option-strategies/long-call-spread/
==
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/bull-call-spread
==
http://www.cboe.com/strategies/product-specific-strategies/spx/spx-bull-call-spreads-strategy/part3
==
https://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concepts/strategies/bull_call_spread.html?prt=mx

StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)<< 1 ... 24 25 26 27 28 ... 31 >>Post Follow-up

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