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15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142273
Ignore 15minofPham
2/15/2018 9:44:33 PM

You might have an argument from others but not from me. :-)

WantingLittle
7 posts
msg #142269
- Remove message 2/15/2018 4:54:03 PM

I know it's only been 6 weeks but so far the returns seem pretty impressive here--especially considering the storm it weathered. Any disagreement?

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142274
Ignore 15minofPham
2/15/2018 10:38:58 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - SINA & IWM

I decided to pick two plays today since both are so audacious.

IWM: Premium of $8.4 million on 20,000 of the 9/21/18 $161 Call for $4.21 with stock at $151.40. Breakeven of $165.21 is 8% from today's close of $152.80. I understand we're in an unprecedented bull market, but it's still asking a lot when assuming there might be another one or two corrections along the way. What is amazing about this play is that the total option volume Call/Put ratio was only 30-70 and bullish order sentiment was 41%, in par with its 30-day average of 42%.

SINA: Premium of $2.2 million on 25,750 of the 4/20/18 $120 Call for $8.40 with stock at $120.75. Breakeven of $128.40 is 8% from today's close of $118.85. The audacity to think the stock will move 8% in two months without the help of earnings. If seasonality holds true, it will need a Herculean effort in April as March over the past 5 years has returned an avg of -3.2%. April is first in winning pct at 80% and second in avg return at 8.8%. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 62-38 and bullish order sentiment was 26%, well below its 30-day average of 64%.
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Wednesday's spotlight - EEM, $2.6 million, 25,750, 4/20/18 $50 Call $1.03, Stock $48.62

Gained +2.05% to help its option premium to +49.51%. Barring another vicious move down, this should be another doubler.
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EXEL, CARS, and INTC are almost green. SPB though is struggling and another -2% day will have it hit the stop loss of -50%.

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The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. In the event price climbs above 50 & 70 pct target then falls below, sell then kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then finishes the day at +57%, stock would be sold at +57%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%


mahkoh
1,064 posts
msg #142292
Ignore mahkoh
2/16/2018 3:34:22 PM

Huge activity on TGT calls. A lot of 1200 contracts batches, although most are at the mid I'm leaning towards the calls being sold. Probably exercising of existing positions to capture the dividend on Tuesday.

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142300
Ignore 15minofPham
2/16/2018 10:50:38 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - UNP

Premium of $2 million on 10,000 of the 3/16/18 $130 Put for $2.07 with stock at $134.75. It's a surprise to see Puts of this magnitude on UNP when they've been huge Calls over the past few months. It's even more of a surprise considering this has only one month to play out. Breakeven of $127.93 is 4.75% from today's close of $134.27. Somebody might know something as earnings is not until mid April. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was only 40-60 and bullish order sentiment was 16%, well below its 30-day average of 43%.

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Thursday's spotlight - IWM, $8.4 million, 20,000, 9/21/18 $161 Call $4.21, Stock $151.40

Negligible gain didn't move option premium as it stands at +12.83%.

SINA, $2.2 million, 25,750, 4/20/18 $120 Call $8.4, Stock $120.75

Fell -3.28% at resistance which made option decline to -35%.
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A good start ended with a fade which prevented a couple of stocks to reach green.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. In the event price climbs above 50 & 70 pct target then falls below, sell then kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then finishes the day at +57%, stock would be sold at +57%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142367
Ignore 15minofPham
2/20/2018 9:33:56 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - QQQ

Premium of $5.1 million on 16,837 of the 5/18/18 $172 Call for $3.07 with ETF at $165.47. It appears smart money thinks this pullback is temporary and the uptrend will resume. Breakeven of $175.07 is 5.92% from today's close of $165.29. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was only 38-62 while bullish order sentiment was 33%, inline with its 30-day average of 36%.

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Friday's spotlight - UNP, $2 million, 10,000, 3/16/18 $130 Put $2.07, Stock $134.75

A rare almost HR as UNP dropped -3.01% helping the Put gained nearly 79% in one day.

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Market had a carbon copy day like Friday as it started out strong only to fade my mid-day. This constant fading is proving that bulls don't have control back of the market. WDAY had another good day as it crossed the +50% in only its fourth trading day. On the other hand, EEM continued its fade after hitting resistance on Friday and SPB sideways action is having them on life support as it's barely above the automatic -50% stop loss.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. In the event price climbs above 50 & 70 pct target then falls below, sell then kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then finishes the day at +57%, stock would be sold at +57%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%


15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142392
Ignore 15minofPham
2/21/2018 10:28:03 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - IWM

Premium of $5.8 million on 13,000 of the 4/20/18 $154 Put for $4.48 with ETF at $153.15. Rejected at the daily 50 MA and both RSI & MACD showing lower highs. Breakeven of $149.52 is at the 38 Fib retracement of 1/24 high to 2/9 low. Total option volume Put/Call ratio was 70-30 while bullish order sentiment was 23%, well below its 30-day average of 42%.

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Tuesday's spotlight - QQQ, $5.1 million, 16,837, 5/18/18 $172 Call for $3.07, ETF $165.47

It was the third day in a row where it started green, but then ended up red. The selling in the last two hours was violent.

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As mentioned above, the selling in the last two hours caused SPB to hit the -50% stop loss. It also cause UNP & WDAY to sell at 75% & 50% respectively.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threatens to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142410
Ignore 15minofPham
2/22/2018 10:46:18 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - WMT

Premium of $1.6 million on 7,000 of the 5/18/18 $97.50 Call for $2.30 with stock at $93.09. Smart money thinks filling the gap from November will act as support. Breakeven of $99.80 would bring it back to the .50 Fib retracement of 1/29 high. Total option volume Call/Put ratio was 70-30 while bullish order sentiment was 77%, above its 30-day average of 63%.

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Wednesday's spotlight - IWM, $5.8 million, 13,000 4/20/18 $154 Put for $4.48, ETF $153.15

Sideways action kept Put premium just in the green.

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Fourth straight day of afternoon fading put SINA in jeopardy of hitting -50% stop loss. Good news is CAT bucked the trend and had a daily bullish MACD cross-over. Barring a market meltdown, this pick should end up being a win.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threatens to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings


15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142427
Ignore 15minofPham
2/23/2018 11:58:35 PM

Follow the Money Play of the Day - A

Premium of $5.5 million on 35,796 of the 3/16/18 $70 Put for $1.55 with stock at $70.58. An extremely aggressive bearish play with expiration only three weeks out . Smart money thinks the pullback from 2/15 will continue or somebody might know some bad news coming out. No one bets $5.5 million just for the heck of it. Do they? Total option volume Put/Call ratio was an astounding 99-1 while bullish order sentiment was a measly 3%, the lowest I've seen which needless to say is well below its 30-day average of 82%.

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Thursday's spotlight - WMT, $1.6 million, 7,000 5/18/18 $97.50 Call for $2.30, Stock $93.09

Didn't participate with the market afternoon rally as it's still digesting its earnings cratering.

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Market broke a four day afternoon fading streak with an impressive rally which helped INTC back into green. CAT added to its cume while the IWM Put understanbly went into the red.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

The purpose of this paper trading portfolio is to find out if following the big money plays, aka smart money is truly smart.

Rules:
1) Picks are based on one big purchase or multiples of purchases adding to a large premium
2) Prices are end of day except if below event occurs intraday
3) Gain: Sell at +100%. Purpose is to see how many plays can double. If price climbs above 50 & 75 pct target then threatens to fall below intraday, then sell kicks in. Example: X stock started the day at +93%, but then falls to +75% intraday, stock would be sold at +75%
4) Loss: Sell at -50%
5) Sell before earnings


sumit.gargs@gmail.com
7 posts
msg #142464
Ignore sumit.gargs@gmail.com
2/26/2018 10:47:51 AM

@15minofPham, I am not seeing 35K of open interest for A, $70 Put, 3/16/18 expiration. Am I missing something?

15minofPham
136 posts
msg #142467
Ignore 15minofPham
2/26/2018 12:22:08 PM

That is odd! I don't see a sell today of that magnitude so I'm not sure why it's not showing up in OI.

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