johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #135875
- Ignore johnpaulca |
5/12/2017 5:42:34 PM
BarTune1
377 posts
msg #135871
- Ignore BarTune1 5/12/2017 1:11:33 PM
JP .... what is your view on TSLA here at $326.50 ?
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How ridiculous it was to value Tesla (TSLA), who struggle to make and sell 25,000 cars in a quarter, at the same price as GM (GM) or Ford (F), who each make 25,000 cars PER DAY, (that's 90 times more). The companies are not even playing in the same ballpark (though they are playing the same game, so investors get confused) – it's like betting your son's undefeated little league team can take on the Yankees – there are other factors involved than just their record against other children.
Still the masters of spin, Tesla's shareholder letter, which looks more like an advertisement for their cars, touts "Record vehicle production" and rightly assumes that the average TSLA investor can't do math (or they would not be TSLA investors) and that 25,051 is only 169 cars more than last quarter's 24,882 and it's getting really, REALLY hard to see a path that gets them to 200,000 cars by the end of this year.
Not only are sales a major disappointment but the purchase of Solar City from Elon's cousin is causing more expenses and more losses and also something no one is discussing but should be – dilution! That's right, last year, TSLA only had 132,676,000 shares outstanding and now they have 162,129,000 shares outstanding, that's 23% more shares than last year – not to mention all the warrants attached to their debt offerings. That's the kind of thing a penny stock does – not an established company. Had TSLA not dilluted their shares, their losses per share would have been TWICE AS BAD as what was expected (-.82), not just 50% worse than expected.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #135878
- Ignore pthomas215 |
5/12/2017 7:50:13 PM
JP, just wanted to tell you one of my favorite shows is "Options Action" on CNBC. If you get a chance to watch it this week, they cover Amazon and have option recommendations. they also covered a strategy for snapchat and a long bull option recommendation on XLE.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #135889
- Ignore BarTune1 |
5/13/2017 1:47:32 PM
JP - I'm already short here @$324 - I know the business also! Are you short or have any targets in mind?
Thx
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #135909
- Ignore gmg733 |
5/15/2017 8:53:30 AM
Long /ZB, /6J, and /SI on the open last night. Holding my /CL and /6C positions
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #135910
- Ignore johnpaulca |
5/15/2017 9:27:13 AM
BarTune1
378 posts
msg #135889
- Ignore BarTune1 5/13/2017 1:47:32 PM
JP - I'm already short here @$324 - I know the business also! Are you short or have any targets in mind?
Thx
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Yes, I'm short. Hard to read a target on this but $302 was my first target, now it's closer to $305.57(upper BB40)
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #135914
- Ignore johnpaulca |
5/15/2017 11:08:26 AM
johnpaulca
10,635 posts
msg #135855 5/11/2017 3:36:39 PM
NTES...long $277.46
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closed....hit target $283
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #135918
- Ignore johnpaulca |
5/15/2017 3:29:18 PM
NTES.....have a bit in at $278, will try again in ah
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #135923
- Ignore johnpaulca |
5/16/2017 9:51:00 AM
XIV...shorting above $82.49, will hold until tomorrow
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #135926
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
5/16/2017 10:21:22 AM
Risky - the current roll yield is 4.3% with 1 day until expiration. Right now the VIX spot is down to 10.30 with the May 2017 futures expiring tomorrow at 10.60. They must be at the same price by the end of the day.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #135927
- Ignore johnpaulca |
5/16/2017 11:01:38 AM
XIV....will cover at $81.63
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