Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #131956
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/17/2016 12:58:42 PM
@BarTune - I can count on you to have my back, dude. Given the profitability of these filters against 5 years of data and in recent paper trading, I am comfortable with this amount. Given that there are 7 active signals right now and I am getting in at a price better than the system entries, I think this will resolve itself in my favor or I would not have added to my current position.
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #131961
- Ignore mahkoh |
10/17/2016 3:27:08 PM
Sold to open PVH nov18 110 puts for 3.30 with PVH at 110.67
Margin 2458 per contract, return on margin 12.6 %
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #131966
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/17/2016 4:43:34 PM
RGLD....small position at $66.89....don't have a confirm buy signal but sitting in a zone where the probability of a gap up is likely next trading day.
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #131968
- Ignore mahkoh |
10/17/2016 5:26:47 PM
Kevin, what's the point in going short DWTI instead of long UWTI unless you expect to hold for an extended time? Watch this position carefully, I have been in a situation where I thought I was in profit only to find out my shorts had gotten called in earlier that day.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #131969
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/17/2016 6:18:10 PM
Basically the trend for both DWTI and UWTI is negative, as is the issue with many leveraged ETFs and especially with 3x ETFS. In this specific instance looks at the YTD performance - DWTI is down -70.49% and UWTI is down -31.95%.
The system focuses only on shorting DWTI or UWTI instead of going long in either.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #131970
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
10/17/2016 7:34:38 PM
@Mahkoh
Shorting DWTI (if you are able to borrow the shares) is a much better option than going long UWTI because of the natural decay of triple leveraged ETFs. They are notoriously inefficient and daily rebalancing costs are a constant drag on the price typically. In effect, Kevin is trading with the tide rather than fighting it.
You do have a point in that the short could be called in at any time. That being said, I've shorted well over a thousand trades in the last couple years and have only ever been called on a few trades (less than 5).
@Kevin
Wondering if the logic above would be useful in trading your VIX signals. Rather than go long VXX on a buy signal, might be better off shorting the inverse leveraged ETF?
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #131973
- Ignore mahkoh
modified |
10/18/2016 6:08:19 AM
If this is the usual picture it's not after 10 to 15 days that they seriously move out of sync if you take the cost of borrowing into account.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #131979
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/18/2016 9:15:34 AM
johnpaulca
10,137 posts
msg #131947 10/17/2016 9:25:21 AM
SPY....daily pullback in effect
- intraday bounce should occur since we're at the lower end between the BB40 and BB125.
Gold...1252(support) still holding
OIL...daily trend up but losing momo. Fake contracts will expire on the 20th Oct.
VIX...Trend up with slowing momo...cycle looks to be over, sell haven't triggered as yet.
XIV/TVIX....XIV trend up with pullback in effect( buyers will add to long). TVIX sell not triggered
*********************************************************************************************************************
Update Tuesday:
SPY....bounce will occur today, we're still between the two BB bands as they are tightening
GOLD....will bounce from support today(long RGLD)
OIL....bounce today(lower dollar)...short sellers be taking up positions...imho
VIX....down day with continuing slowing momo...support at $14.95
XIV....will move up with the market today(long)
SPY....will open oversold intraday, frustration again for traders entering at open since the meat of this move is in pre-market....glty
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #131980
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/18/2016 9:25:29 AM
OIL futures just hit $50.94....great place to short with tight stops.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #131981
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/18/2016 9:31:57 AM
Kevin_in_GA
3,805 posts
msg #131872
10/12/2016 9:45:09 AM
Short 1000 shares of DWTI at $58.00. May add to this as needed.
++++++++++++++
Added another 1000 shares at $59.50. I have a multisystem for shorting UWTI based on 10 unique separate signals each with a historical win% of 85% or higher. Right now 7 of 10 are in play and the open trades are currently at a loss after this morning's move up.
++++++++++++
Out of this position at $57.00 right at the open for a net gain of $3479 after commissions.
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