StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 31 >>Post Follow-up
15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139807
Ignore 15minoffame
12/5/2017 12:09:06 AM

This is my 10th year trading options. I've learned to follow the money or in this case big options blocks, especially at the Ask or above. Unusual options volume work too. It's rare that a bet of over $1 million will go against you. Highest probabilities is if you can find a massive block buy at support. That's when the big boys and girls think the selling is basically done.

Legend: Symbol, Contracts, Expiration, Strike, Type, Trade Price, Premium

12/4/17
1) BAC, 49,365, 1/19/18 30 Call, $0.58, $2,863,170
2) V, 3850, 2/16/18 110 Call, $3.50, $1,347,500
3) V, 3137, 2/16/18 110 Call, $4.05, $1,270,490
4) KMX, 3933, 1/19/18 72.50 Call, $2.40, $943,920
5) CELG, 931, 3/16/18 100 Call, $9.00, $837,900

Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #139809
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
12/5/2017 8:17:35 AM

Is there a way to differentiate between those who are buying calls and those who are selling them? That is all rolled up into the call "volume", right? Not all that knowledgeable about options.

four
5,087 posts
msg #139810
Ignore four
modified
12/5/2017 8:26:22 AM

Which sites do you use to analyze and research options?
Thanks

johnpaulca
12,034 posts
msg #139815
Ignore johnpaulca
12/5/2017 9:18:26 AM

This is very good option site I've used in the past;

https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/

mahkoh
1,059 posts
msg #139835
Ignore mahkoh
12/5/2017 3:59:46 PM

Livevol claims to have info on whether options were bought or sold, but is not cheap. You can do some research on your own if you have access to time and sales data and bid/ask charts like IB has. If a block is sold at the ask it is probably a buy order and vice versa. However, if the order was placed at the midpoint you are in the dark.

15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139839
Ignore 15minoffame
12/5/2017 7:28:37 PM

Mahkoh is correct. Livevol is popular in determining if it's a Buy or Sell but they're not cheap. Marketchameleon offers the same data for free, albeit with a 15-min delay. They offer a subscription base, but since I'm not a day trader, I don't have a need to pounce on the trade right away.

If a purchase is at the Ask or Above, then it's a buy. Better yet, if volume exceeds Open Interest, then a new position has been established. If it's at the Bid or below then the option is sold. This is also valuable since it's giving you a hint that the big players think a stock can no longer go above a price (Selling a Call) or below a price (Selling a Put).

Beginning option players should only buy options at least 3 months in advance to give you more time if the market goes against you. If you piggy back on big premium trades of $1 million or more, you'd be surprised how fast your account can grow as these plays have an 80% accuracy. I'd like these plays and blocks of 3000 or more at support, especially on beaten down stocks. These almost have a 100% accuracy as you only need the stock to move 2-3% in order for your option price to double.

Caveat: In a sideways, fade every pop market like we've experienced lately, patience is the key! The big players can afford to have the option price drop because they have plenty of ammo left to average down.The average Joe won't have such luxury so you need to WAIT for SPY to start going up again. Keep an Excel log of all the big buys and when you see the market is back to an uptrend, buy hand over fist on those now cheap Calls!

15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139845
Ignore 15minoffame
12/5/2017 9:38:00 PM

Spotlight Trade of the Day!
An investor thinks something wicked this way comes as they bought $10 million in QQQ premiums of the 6/15/18 134 Puts at $2.57. This is one of the largest straight up options trades I've seen. Break even is $131.43 so QQQ needs to drop 13.99% from now until expiration. If true, bulls will not be enjoying the Year of the Dog.

Remaining 4 big options plays today:

Legend: Premium, Symbol, Contracts, Expiration Date/Strike/Type, Trade Price

1) $2,608,900, QQQ, 2752, 9/21/18 154 Put, $9.48
2) $2,250,000, XRT, 22,500, 12/29/17 44 Call, $1.00
3) $1,732,730, SPY, 2775, 2/16/18 265 Put, $4.59
4) $1,499,400, XLF, 35,700, 12/29/17 28 Call, $0.42

tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #139846
Ignore tennisplayer2
modified
12/5/2017 10:25:57 PM

15minoffame, where do you see the big trades on market chameleon? Thanks.

15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139847
Ignore 15minoffame
12/5/2017 11:16:04 PM

It's under the tab "Screeners" at the top menu line, then "Option Trades." My personal preference for the filter categories: Trade Filter (Over 500), Trade Price (Over .25), Stock Type (Common), Side (Ask & Above). To be on the safe side that these are open positions choose Trade Qty vs Open Int (Qty > OI). Choosing this will drop the results dramatically BUT the probabilities are much higher since this is a new open position.

HTH

tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #139851
Ignore tennisplayer2
12/6/2017 1:55:04 AM

15minoffame, thanks.

StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 31 >>Post Follow-up

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